Daily Best Bets for Saturday, March 15: Tennessee vs Auburn, UAB vs North Texas and Boise St. vs Colorado St.

#4 Tennessee vs #1 Auburn, 2 p.m., ESPN

Line: AUB -4.5, Over/Under 140.5

The Bet: $15 on Auburn -4.5 (-110)

Auburn enters this SEC conference championship semifinal as the bona fide number one team in the country on the eve of Selection Sunday, with a complete offensive attack that features one of the lowest turnover rates nationally. Bruce Pearl’s squad combines elite rim pressure with top-35 rated efficiency in three point shooting, transition offense, and offensive rebounding — creating a multi-faceted attack that few teams have answers for. The Tigers’ only potential vulnerability comes from jump shooters, where they’ve allowed more points than expected in conference play, but their overwhelming consistency elsewhere renders this weakness almost moot. Tennessee brings formidable shooting and strong offensive rebounding to the table under Rick Barnes, but their defensive approach could prove problematic, as they allow the 342nd-most three point attempts nationally at a 45.4 percent rate. If Auburn can leverage their spacing to generate valuable looks from deep while maintaining their interior presence through Johni Broome, who can break through any defense, expect the Tigers to roll into the championship game with room to spare.

#3 UAB vs #2 North Texas 5:30 p.m., ESPN2

Line: UNT -3, Over/Under 135.5

The Bet: $15 on UAB +3 (-105)

This American Athletic Conference clash features familiar foes meeting for the third time this season, with North Texas having split the regular season matchups despite being expected to lose both contests according to ShotQuality’s advanced metrics. The Mean Green operate at a deliberately slow tempo and have been one of the conference’s luckiest teams all season, while their defensive approach leaves them vulnerable in transition and susceptible to midrange scoring. UAB’s Yaxel Lendeborg has been a dominant force of late (30-20-8 yesterday with nine STOCKS) and should continue to expose North Texas’ post defense weaknesses, leading a Blazers squad that excels in transition, attacks the rim effectively, crashes the offensive glass, and protects the ball at an elite level. The Blazers’ only significant weaknesses are allowing too many shots at the rim and a low volume of three point attempts, though their rim protection metrics suggest they contest shots effectively despite giving up interior looks. With UAB getting a full possession’s worth of points and displaying superior overall team quality, there’s clear value on the underdog in a matchup that profiles as a pick’em or slight UAB advantage rather than a three-point North Texas edge.

#5 Boise St. vs #2 Colorado St., 6 p.m., CBS

Line: CSU -1.5, Over/Under 139.5

The Bet: $15 on Boise +1.5 (-108)

Boise State enters the Mountain West championship game with their postseason hopes hanging in the balance, needing a victory to secure the NCAA Tournament bid that comes with claiming the conference title. Colorado State brings a formidable profile with strong defensive metrics, quality passing, and effective rebounding, but the Broncos represent one of the most underrated teams in the country — a squad that has performed like a top-30 team all season despite results that haven’t always reflected their true quality. Leon Rice’s group boasts the nation’s best defensive rebounding rate, attacks the rim with the tenth-best expected efficiency according to ShotQuality, and excels at both getting to the free throw line and converting those opportunities. Both teams defend the three point line exceptionally well, creating a relatively even defensive matchup, but Boise State’s superior offensive ceiling should prove decisive in a tight contest. Look for the desperate Broncos to secure their tournament position with a championship-clinching victory that validates their analytic profile and rewards backers getting a point and the hook in what should be a Boise State favored matchup.