Welcome back to Best Bets, where I give you my top plays for the night in college basketball. Once again, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
We are 14-12-1 and +$4 so far after the first few weeks here at Hoops HQ. Today, I bring you a jam-packed set of power five conference games for Wednesday with matchups from The Big 12, The SEC, and The Big East. Betting lines are from the time of publication.
Let’s get started.
25 BYU at Arizona State, 9 p.m., ESPN+
Line: BYU -3.5, Over/Under: 151.5
The Pick: $10 on BYU -3.5 (-110)
Per ShotQuality data, BYU stands as the fourth most efficient team attacking the rim in Division I while also boasting the 14th highest frequency of three-point shooting at 48.2 percent. This lethal combination is made possible by their elite-level passing, which creates spacing that ranks in the top-25 nationally. On defense, the Cougars allow the 16th fewest shots at the rim among all 364 teams while featuring a rebounding rate that puts them in the top-20. The Cougars have been victims of misfortune in 2025, dropping games to Texas Tech, Utah, and Arizona that ShotQuality metrics suggested should have gone their way. Their Wednesday opponent, Arizona State, moves almost too quickly for their own good and ranks outside the top 250 in defending both the three and the rim, setting up BYU to claim a victory by more than one possession.
Texas at Arkansas, 9 p.m., ESPN2
Line: Arkansas -5.5, Over/Under: 146.5
The Pick: $10 on Texas +5.5 (-110)
The Longhorns rate as perhaps the premier team in the nation at attacking the rim, per the expected analytics, with an SQ efficiency that leads the Big 12 at an expected 63 percent success rate, but they’ve been unlucky to convert at only 57 percent. This represents an excellent investment opportunity in a team that also maintains a low turnover rate while efficiently defending both the rim and three-point line. Texas combines these strengths with a 75 percent free-throw rate and a potent transition attack, though the Longhorns do settle for far too many midrange jump shots, which forces them to rely on shot-making ability. Their opponent, Arkansas, will allow them to take quality shots, however, as the Razorbacks are seeing the most attempts at the rim defensively in the conference while also playing the worst perimeter defense in the SEC. I’ve seen Coach Cal’s squad in person this year. They clearly struggle to close out shooters. This presents the perfect spot to fade Arkansas at home with an underperforming Texas squad that holds an offensive advantage with roughly equal defensive capabilities.
7 St. John’s at Butler, 9 p.m., CBSSN
Line: St. John’s -7 , Over/Under: 149.5
The Pick: $10 on Butler +7 (-110)
Butler clearly occupies the third tier of the Big East. On Wednesday, the Bulldogs prepare for a big home game against soon-to-be conference champs St. John’s, who, behind Rick Pitino, have emerged as perhaps the trendiest pick to make the Final Four after completing their season sweep of UConn. That recent, impressive win over the Huskies, however, should have been a loss per the expected score and resulted from the combination of an unusually strong shooting night from St. John’s and UConn’s cold jump shooting. Playing at home in Indiana with its ability to draw fouls, pass effectively, shoot well, and secure defensive rebounds, Butler has the tools to keep this contest closer than the spread indicates. Grab the points with the underdogs in what shapes up to be a surprisingly close affair.
Vanderbilt at 12 Texas A&M, 7 p.m., SEC Network
Line: Texas A&M -7.5, Over/Under: 145.5
The Pick: $20 on Vanderbilt +7.5 (-110)
It’s no secret that I remain high on Vanderbilt—we’re holding an 85-to-1 Final Four future on them from one of my first articles here at HHQ—and for good reason. The Commodores boast one of the nation’s best perimeter defenses and have accomplished this while playing in the SEC, college basketball’s most challenging conference. They protect the ball exceptionally well while also forcing numerous turnovers and rank in the top 100 both in attacking and defending the rim. Wednesday’s opponent, Texas A&M, has been one of the more overrated teams according to ShotQuality metrics, which has been largely vindicated in its evaluation of the Aggies’ bottom-tier spacing, shooting and rim defense that subsists primarily on rebounding. Vandy’s shooting prowess might not give the Aggies many shots to rebound, while their defensive schemes will create significant problems for A&M’s offense. Even if the Aggies manage to get back in the win column, I recommend taking the points with Vanderbilt to cover on the road.
