Best Bets: Wager on These Undervalued Teams to Make the Final Four

UCLA

The UCLA Bruins made the national headlines in early January after suffering a bad home loss to Michigan. Coach Mick Cronin made it known that he was displeased with how his players and coaches were operating, calling them “soft” and “delusional” in a four-minute presser. The seemingly crass method apparently worked as the Bruins have won six of their last eight contests, including a five game win streak that only just ended with a respectable, two-possession loss at Illinois.

Those wins, and even the losses, have changed my perception of who the Bruins are and, more importantly, what their ceiling can be. In the last four weeks, UCLA has a net turnover rate of 9.7 percent (22 percent forced, 12 percent allowed), meaning they’re getting nearly seven free possessions each game against high-level Big Ten opponents. They have also seen their effective field goal percentage sky rocket of late and are developing good looks from all points on the floor. Their only Achilles’ heel is that teams are managing to get 49 percent of their looks from behind the three-point line. 

If the three-point shooting frequency goes down, or their luck swings in their direction come March, the defensive foundation the Bruins are built on creates a valuable betting opportunity for the price being offered.

THE BET: UCLA Final Four 26-1 for $10 at FanDuel

Louisville

The Cardinals are a team that I’ve been high on for the majority of this season. They develop elite spacing and have the shooters to make anyone pay for a slow closeout. Since Dec. 21, they have only dropped one game to Georgia Tech on the road, cementing themselves as the second-best team in the ACC with a robust 12-2 conference record. However, with their recent lull in scheduling (Boston College, Miami, N.C. State) and second conference loss in February, this is about as low as their price will likely be for the rest of the year.

Their upcoming road game this Sunday against Notre Dame is a good chance for them to make more noise. If Louisville wins by double digits, I’d imagine the pricing window will tighten a bit. It should tighten, to be fair, because in the last month Pat Kelsey’s team has the second highest adjusted offensive efficiency thanks partly to their 51.7 percent three-point attempt rate. When you’re expected to be the 35th best team from behind the arc, per ShotQualty, that’s what you want to see.

Defensively Louisville keeps opponents away from the rim, which puts them in the top-five percentile in shot election. They are elite rebounders on both ends of the floor and might be one of the most effective teams off screens in the nation. It leads to one of the most potent attacks that might still be a bit cold, and thus not showing the public what they truly can accomplish. 

THE BET: Louisville Final Four 26-1 at FanDuel for $10.

George Mason 

A long shot of long shots, George Mason is currently 1.5 Wins Above the Bubble per BartTorvik’s well respected resume metric. That means that their play should lead them to getting into the NCAA Tournament even if they aren’t able to win the Atlantic-10 Tournament. Of course, that is nowhere near a promise and if they have a poor finish to the regular season and/or an early exit from the A10 tournament, they could be left waiting for their names to be called on Selection Sunday.

I do not think that is going to happen. In the last handful of weeks, GMU looks like a top 25 team even with their numbers adjusted for the less-than-Power Five competition they’ve played. Even then, though, their defense looks to be one of the most formidable in the nation. They have two massive tests approaching in Saint Joseph’s this Saturday and then VCU the next weekend. This is an effective way to buy in on them now, for if they can manage to win both those games, this price will be long gone. 

THE BET: GMU Final Four 120-1 for $5

New Mexico

There are some simple methods for betting futures that you can employ, even if you aren’t hyper experienced in the market or a long-time expert in any specific sport. The main one is to embrace chaos and stay far away from the top of the odds board while trying to pick off advantageous lines on teams that are better than those priced around them. This methodology works well because it allows you to trust the market alongside the eye test. When one shop is offering a much better price than the rest, usually it’s something to consider.

That is the case here with New Mexico, which is being offered at 80-1 at DraftKings, but as low as 55-1 elsewhere. This is not the sole reason to bet on a team, but it is a good way to pinpoint squads who have a wider range of possible outcomes and therefore a better chance to profit if we are more accurate than those who set the prices. 

What New Mexico is doing under Richard Pitino deserves your attention and likely a bet. The second generation coach has his team, headlined by Donovan Dent and Nelly Jr. Joseph, cooking with gas. Dent looks like he might be one of the best guards in the entire nation, a necessity for a Cinderella run. The Lobos have only lost one game in the conference all season and that was against the hottest shooting team in the Mountain West, San Jose State, on a night where the Lobos shot 20 percent from deep and lost by just one point. Their other three losses are to St. John’s at MSG, Arizona State on a neutral court and then to rival New Mexico State in an emotionally charged overtime contest. 

That’s it. They’ve beaten everyone else they’ve played in a tough conference and even crushed Utah State by 19 on the road just a few days after beating UNLV on the road.. How much more do you need to see? If you believe in what this squad is doing, buy in before their upcoming games against Utah State, Boise State and San Diego State, because if their dominance continues the price won’t last. 

THE BET: New Mexico Final Four at DraftKings for $25