Welcome to Best Bets, where I give you my five top plays in college basketball over the next couple of days. Each time I write this column, I will have $100 to play with. I can spread out that money however I like, so long as I place a minimum $5 on each pick. Here is my first installment for Hoops HQ. You can see below who I like — and why. Let’s get started!
THE MAIN EVENT
No. 4 Alabama (-1.5) at No. 14 Mississippi State
Wednesday, 9pm. SEC Network | Starkville, MS | Line: ALA -1.5, O/U 164.5
ALABAMA
Nate Oats’ Crimson Tide are analytics incarnate: play fast, bomb threes and force opponents into the shots you want them to take. Alabama leads the nation in tempo and is in the top 15 in pace for the sixth straight year under Oats (per Ken Pom), with 47.5 percent of their shots from deep and eight percent from midrange. Defensively, they funnel foes into the fourth-most midrange attempts, which yields the equivalent of a 27 percent three-point shooter (per ShotQuality). Pair that with an offense capable of dropping 100 points routinely and it’s a nightmare scenario for opponents.
But cracks exist. Teams with elite spacing can still find open threes and Alabama’s defense wobbles when stretched by creative guards. To survive, opponents must limit turnovers and dominate the glass — extra possessions for this hyper-efficient attack are lethal. Still, Oats’ formula of pace, shot calculus and firepower keeps ‘Bama firmly in the top-10. Simple, yet unstoppable.
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Chris Jans’ Bulldogs counter with brute force. Their 18th-ranked offense mauls the paint and thrives on balance: every rotation player except sparkplug guard Josh Hubbard, who averages 16 points per game with a team-best offensive rating, sports an effective field goal percentage above 53.
But Mississippi State’s flaws are glaring. They shoot 32.1 percent from three (254th) and collapse in losses, averaging under nine assists — which is near dead last in assist rate. Defensively, the Bulldogs are elite at blocking shots and swiping steals, but opponents shoot 34.4 percent from deep against them. Add shaky free-throw shooting and late-game leads start and this team can feel fragile. The blueprint? Build an early advantage via paint dominance, grind the game down in their physical style. If trailing, though, their lack of shooting and stagnancy spell trouble.
MATCHUP
Alabama’s turbo tempo clashes with Mississippi State’s half-court grind. If the Tide can’t force turnovers, this becomes a chess match: transition threes vs. second-chance bulldozing. In crunch time, the Bulldogs’ liabilities — free throws and assist droughts — contrast starkly with Alabama’s knack for 10-0 bursts. Even if State mucks it up, the Tide’s three-point volume targets MSU’s perimeter defense.
The pick: $35 on Alabama (-1.5) The Tide’s explosiveness and shot profile should override State’s physicality, though a rockfight tempo could flirt with the under. Still, avoid the total — Alabama’s ceiling is too high to bank on any sort of slog.
OTHER PICKS
Illinois at Nebraska, Thursday, 8:30 p.m., FS1
Illinois’ hyper-speed offense collides with Nebraska’s top-50 defense and transition-resistant game. The Illini’s attack thrives on shooting and defending the three at high rates, along with strong rebounding. Nebraska likes to attack the rim at the third highest rate in the Big Ten and will benefit from the Illini’s struggles with forcing turnovers. Both teams get to the free throw line at a high rate on offense, but Nebraska has struggled to stop good shooters. Ultimately, the smart play is to trust the best offense in the conference against one of the weaker three point defenses.
The pick: $15 on Illinois Team Total Over 79.5
Dayton at Saint Louis, Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN2
The Flyers’ surgical half-court offense creates the best looks at the rim in the A10. Don’t let the string of losses confuse you. Those were largely bad luck. Dayton gets into transition at a 15 percent clip and as the ninth best shot selection in the nation, per ShotQuality. St. Louis does defend the rim well, but doesn’t force nearly enough turnovers to deter the Flyers from driving to the hoop. The Billikens rely on a conference-high diet of three point shots, with almost half their attempts coming from behind the line. There’s too much variability in that. Yes, all their shots could fall, but they largely haven’t been going down this season- trust Dayton to continue to course correct.
The pick: $10 on Dayton Moneyline +120
Baylor at Kansas, Saturday, 4 p.m., ESPN
The Bears might be one of the biggest buy-low opportunities in the country. How often in the last ten years has anyone slept on Scott Drew? Not often. V.J. Edgecombe and Norchad Omier create a defensive fortress that generates turnovers at a top-40 rate nationally. They’re also expected to be the 11th-most efficient team in the country from deep, but they’re shooting three percent worse than their spacing projects. The offensive explosion is likely right around the corner and this Jayhawks squad is the perfect candidate for a big performance with their below average three point defense. This is a great value on Baylor to get a win.
The pick: $20 on Baylor Moneyline
$15 Florida at Tennessee, Saturday, Noon, ESPN
The Gators create the perfect environment for betting on the Over. They are the best offense in the SEC and the 13th best in expected defense. They have the firepower to challenge a Tennessee, who will allow you to shoot threes, and a porous half court defense that will leave even a high scoring affair within reach for their opponents. The Vol’s do work at a methodical tempo, which is part of why this line is close to 140, but the shooting prowess of Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler with the guard play of Walter Clayton make me think this becomes a high scoring affair, opposite of the last time these two met.
The pick: $20 on Over 139