Welcome back to Daily Best Bets, where I give you my favorite plays and futures throughout the season. Including March Madness.
As always, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
We are currently 49-41-1 and +$75 on the season as of Friday night. As the Elite Eight starts, with just two games left each day, I’ve gone a bit deeper into my biggest play of Saturday’s action.
Let’s get to it.
3 Texas Tech vs 1 Florida, 6:09 p.m., TBS
Line: Florida -6.5, Over/Under: 156.5
The Pick: $30 on Texas Tech +6.5 (-110)
The electricity of the Elite Eight crackles through this fascinating matchup between the Red Raiders and Gators, with a Final Four berth hanging in the balance and value hiding beneath the surface metrics.
Florida storms in with gaudy credentials — a 33-4 record bolstered by elite offensive rebounding and a blistering 52nd-ranked tempo that has overwhelmed opponents throughout their magical March run. The Gators’ balanced attack features efficient rim finishing and three-point shooting while maintaining excellent spacing, creating a multi-faceted offensive monster that has been seemingly unstoppable.
Texas Tech, however, brings its own statistical marvel to this dance — ranking fifth in offensive spacing and 15th in expected three-point efficiency per ShotQuality — but with a fascinating twist that defines this matchup: despite elite efficiency when they do attack the rim, the Red Raiders rank a shocking 352nd in rim attack frequency, essentially adopting a perimeter-oriented approach that has confounded defensive schemes and put on a spectacle of shot making thus far in the tournament. The Red Raiders’ elite passing and ball security should neutralize Florida’s frenetic pace and create enough high-percentage looks to keep this within the number, even against Florida’s glass dominance.
When March dreams hang in the balance, efficiency often trumps volume alone, and Texas Tech’s surgical offensive approach provides just enough counterbalance to Florida’s statistical dominance to make this spread too generous in a game where possessions will be precious.
