Welcome back to Daily Best Bets, where I give you my top picks and analysis for today’s college basketball games . As always, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
We are currently 42-33-1 and +83 on the season after another sweep yesterday, including the outright winner on Texas! All eyes remain on the power five conference tournaments as Selection Sunday rapidly approaches…
Let’s get to it.
5 Marquette vs #1 St. John’s, 6:30 p.m., FOX
Line: SJU -4, Over/Under 142.5
The Bet: $20 on Marquette +4 (-110)
Marquette owns the sixth lowest turnover rate in the nation while forcing the 18th most turnovers on defense, creating a solid foundation for value against the spread in today’s Big East Conference Championship semifinal. The Golden Eagles rank 20th in expected efficiency attacking the rim per ShotQuality metrics, run efficient transition attacks, and take over 45 percent of their shots from behind the arc while effectively utilizing pick and roll action. Despite being expected to beat St. John’s in both regular season matchups per ShotQuality’s expected scores, Marquette lost both games — contributing to efficiency metrics that suggest the Johnnies have been overrated with highly inefficient three point shooting and poor perimeter defense. This game will likely come down to ball security and tough shot making ability. When you’re getting more than a possession with a team that has clear statistical advantages against market expectations, taking the points is too valuable to pass up. I’m on Marquette to cover even if, as a life-long New York basketball fan, I hope St. John’s wins.
3 Arizona vs #2 Texas Tech 9:30 p.m., ESPN2
Line: Texas Tech -2.5, Over/Under 152.5
The Bet: $15 on TTU -2.5 (-110)
Texas Tech boasts the second highest spacing rating on offense in Division I per ShotQuality’s location-based analysis, ranks top five in three point shooting efficiency, and sits in the top 35 in rim attacks, passing, free throw efficiency, and turnover avoidance. The Red Raiders are one of the nation’s best shot making teams, taking smart attempts at the rim and beyond the arc while ranking 13th nationally in three point frequency. Defensively, they force opponents into the sixth most mid range shots in the country — making it difficult for Arizona to get their preferred looks close to the basket where they currently take 41 percent of their shots. Arizona has largely benefited from good fortune at the rim all season while operating with one of the worst three-point defenses in the country — a near death sentence against a Texas Tech team that’s deadly from deep. Though Texas Tech has a couple of injuries, Arizona isn’t quite as good as their record suggests, and this should be a spot where the Red Raiders get it done after being expected to win their regular season matchup in Arizona, but failing to do so.
3 Clemson vs #2 Louisville 9:30 p.m., ESPN
Line: Clemson -1.5, Over/Under 140.5
The Bet: $15 on Louisville +1.5 (-110)
Louisville and Clemson clash in this ACC battle of jump-shooting teams that avoid rim attacks more than they should, with Clemson rating 14th in the ACC at frequency of finishing at the rim while opting for a high rate of post shots and a modest number of three-point attempts. The Tigers expect to force turnovers and shoot well, but they operate at a snail’s pace (bottom 20 nationally) and don’t take enough free throws despite being potent from the charity stripe. Louisville ranks among the teams attempting the most three point shots nationally while excelling at keeping opponents away from the rim on defense, showcasing strong shooting from all areas of the floor while rebounding effectively and forcing numerous turnovers. The Cardinals represent one of the most undervalued teams in the country, making this tournament matchup an ideal spot to back them as small underdogs.
