Championship Week is here. Selection Sunday is a week away. The NCAA Tournament tips off in nine days. There is no better time to be a college basketball fan. We’ll have all the action covered here at Hoops HQ — from Brad Wachtel’s bracket breakdowns to Justin Perri’s betting columns and so much more.
The Madness truly begins with the conference tournaments — just ask North Carolina State. Last season, the Wolfpack’s miracle run to the Final Four doesn’t happen without winning the ACC Tournament and its NCAA automatic bid. Which Cinderella team emerges? Which programs will build momentum heading into the NCAA Tournament?
The following is a breakdown of the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East Tournaments, including players to watch, potential bid stealers, my predictions and more.
SEC
Players to watch: Auburn senior Johni Broome, a 6-foot-10 forward, will win SEC Player of the Year — and possibly National Player of the Year. Broome is averaging 18.6 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.4 blocks. Much of Tennessee’s success depends on the production of 6-foot-4 senior guard Chaz Lanier, the conference’s fifth-leading scorer. The Volunteers are undefeated when Lanier drops more than 17 points. Alabama senior Grant Nelson, a 6-foot-11 forward, has struggled over the past month, but he bounced back in a major way on Saturday with 23 points and 8 rebounds in a win at Auburn. If the Tide are going to make a run to San Antonio, they’ll need Nelson to be the dominant force that he was in last year’s March Madness. Former All-American Mark Sears, a 6-foot senior guard and the driver of Alabama’s top-ranked offense, has averaged 24.8 points and 5.8 assists in his last six outings. Florida has three senior guards who are capable of taking over games in 6-foot-3 Walter Clayton Jr., 6-foot-2 Alijah Martin and 6-foot-4 Will Richard.
NBA Draft prospect I have my eye on: There are several elite prospects in this tournament, but the one I am most intrigued by is Georgia freshman Asa Newell. The 6-foot-11 forward quietly averages 15.1 points and 6.6 rebounds per game, while shooting 54.2 percent from the field. “He’s going to emerge as one of these safe (picks),” an NBA scout told Hoops HQ. Another scout sees him as “a guy that’s going to be a winning basketball player in our league for a long time.” Newell is projected to be the seventh overall pick in Hoops HQ’s mock draft.
Potential bid stealer: When you have one of the premier scorers in the country, you’re always a threat to pull off some upsets. Texas will need 6-foot-6 freshman guard Tre Johnson, who leads the SEC in points per game at 20.2, to play his best basketball in order to win five contests in five days. Johnson will have to shake off a brutal 0-of-14 shooting performance in a loss to Oklahoma on Saturday. The Longhorns open against Vanderbilt on Wednesday and the Commodores should have a home court advantage at Bridgestone Arena.
Betting favorite: Auburn (+145)
My pick: Florida. Coming off two superb wins over Alabama and Ole Miss, the Gators are clicking on all cylinders. Alex Condon, a 6-foot-11 sophomore forward, is healthy after missing time with an ankle injury and posted a career-high 27 points against the Tide. Experience and confidence are crucial ingredients in March and Florida has plenty of both.
ACC
Players to watch: The best show in college basketball is Duke’s 6-foot-9 freshman forward Cooper Flagg, the favorite for National Player of the Year. Flagg has averaged 21.1 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.2 blocks in league play. Louisville senior Chucky Hepburn, a 6-foot-2 guard, leads the Cardinals’ balanced attack. Hepburn scored a career-high 37 points in a 79-68 win over Pitt a week ago. Clemson has one of the most underrated guards in the country in 6-foot-4 senior Chase Hunter, who is averaging 2.3 three-pointers per game (fourth in the conference). If not for Flagg, Stanford senior Maxime Raynaud, a 7-foot-1 center, would probably be the ACC Player of the Year. Raynaud ranks second in the league in scoring (20.1 points per game) and first in rebounding (10.9 rebounds per game). He broke the Stanford record for most double-doubles in a single season in a win over Boston College on February 26. Six-foot senior guard RJ Davis, the reigning ACC Player of the Year, is the centerpiece of North Carolina’s loaded backcourt.
NBA Draft prospect I have my eye on: Outside of Duke’s three high-profile freshmen (Flagg, 7-foot-2 center Khaman Maluach and 6-foot-7 wing Kon Knueppel), the guy I’ll be watching most closely is Raynaud. The Stanford big man has seen his stock rise considerably. He is now projected to be picked in the late first round. One NBA scout told Hoops HQ that Raynaud is “definitely a third big” in the NBA and could potentially be a team’s top backup. Raynaud is among the most skilled centers in college hoops, but there are concerns about his defense, primarily the lack of rim protection he provides even as a seven-footer.
Potential bid stealer: With four explosive guards—Davis, 6-foot-4 freshman Ian Jackson, 6-foot-3 junior Seth Trimble and 6-foot-1 sophomore Elliot Cadeau—on its roster, North Carolina certainly has the firepower to make magic happen. The Tar Heels rank 24th nationally in points per game (81.7) and had won six in a row before losing to Duke, 82-69, in Chapel Hill on Saturday.
Betting favorite: Duke (-340)
My pick: Duke. As I wrote here, this team has a chance to go down as one of the best in the program’s storied history. The Blue Devils currently have the highest net rating on KenPom in the last 25 years (+39.65 through March 9). They are the only team ranking in KenPom’s top five in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. It is hard to imagine this juggernaut losing before the Final Four semifinals, if at all.
Big Ten
Players to watch: The emergence of 6-foot-3 freshman guard Jase Richardson, the son of former NBA player and Michigan State star Jason Richardson, has been critical for the Spartans. Since Feb. 8, Richardson has averaged 16.9 points on 52.5 percent shooting from the field. Michigan junior Danny Wolf, a 7-foot center who averages 12.7 points, 9.6 rebounds and 3.7 assists, has the ability to dominate games with his extremely unique skill set. Purdue junior Braden Smith, a 6-foot guard and the favorite for Big Ten Player of the Year, and 6-foot-5 Wisconsin senior guard John Tonje should both be All-Americans. The production from Illinois freshman Kasparas Jakucionis has dipped since mid-February, but the 6-foot-6 guard could step it up in the postseason. The Fighting Illini enter this tournament having just knocked off two ranked opponents in Michigan and Purdue.
NBA Draft prospect I have my eye on: Hoops HQ draft expert Krysten Peek wrote last week about the most polarizing NBA draft prospects. Maryland freshman Derik Queen was on the list. The 6-foot-10 center is averaging 15.7 points and 9.2 rebounds for the Terrapins. He lacks the type of athleticism and perimeter shooting that NBA teams covet from their bigs, but his skill set around the basket is so polished that he has shot up draft boards.
Potential bid stealer: Rutgers. Admittedly, this is a huge long shot. The highest seed ever to win the Big Ten Tournament was No. 8 Michigan in 2017. Rutgers is the No. 11 seed. But hey, anything is possible in March, especially when you have two future NBA stars — 6-foot-6 freshman guard Dylan Harper and 6-foot-10 freshman wing Ace Bailey — on your side.
Betting favorite: Michigan State (+300)
My pick: Maryland. When I visited College Park to check in on the Terps a month ago, 6-foot-9 senior forward Julian Reese told me that the team hadn’t yet reached its full potential. Since then, Maryland has gone 7-2 with its only losses coming on miraculous game-winners, including this ridiculous half-court heave from 6-foot-2 Michigan State junior guard Tre Holloman. A lack of depth may eventually haunt this squad, but I believe it has what it takes to deliver the program its first Big Ten Tournament title.
Big 12
Players to watch: The favorite for Big 12 Player of the Year is Texas Tech sophomore JT Toppin, a 6-foot-9 forward who transferred from New Mexico after winning Mountain West Rookie of the Year last season. Toppin ranks third in the conference in both points per game (18.1) and rebounds per game (9.3). Kansas senior Hunter Dickinson, a 7-foot-2 center, is putting up similar numbers (17.4 points and 9.9 rebounds), but the Jayhawks haven’t lived up to expectations. Dickinson had his best game of the season on Saturday, pouring in 33 points and 10 rebounds in a win over Arizona. The top offensive weapon on Houston is 6-foot-1 senior guard LJ Cryer, who has scored 20-plus points in four of his last five outings. It has been a roller coaster of a season for Arizona senior Caleb Love, but the 6-foot-4 guard is unstoppable when he is in the zone. Iowa State is undefeated when its leading scorer, 6-foot-4 senior guard Curtis Jones, contributes at least 19 points. Jones would be my choice for National Sixth Man of the Year.
NBA Draft prospect I have my eye on: There was a brief time in November when it seemed like BYU freshman Egor Demin, a 6-foot-9 guard from Moscow, was on his way to being a top-five pick. He has since slid down draft boards due to inconsistent shooting and turnover issues. Still, with his positional size and versatility, Demin is likely to go in the lottery. As one NBA scout told Hoops HQ earlier this season, “the potential for failure” with a player like Demin is “very, very low.”
Potential bid stealer: Kansas State has already proven it can hang with the powerhouses in the conference. During a red-hot stretch at the beginning of February, the Wildcats beat Iowa State, Kansas and Arizona. They also nearly toppled Texas Tech in mid-January, losing 61-57 after going scoreless in the final five minutes. The status of 6-foot-10 senior forward Coleman Hawkins, who has been playing with a fractured tibia, is certainly a concern. The road to a title for K-State starts with Arizona State on Tuesday and would include meetings with Baylor and Texas Tech before the semifinals.
Betting favorite: Houston (+100)
My pick: Houston. The Cougars have gone 23-1 since the calendar flipped to December, with their sole loss coming to Texas Tech by one point in overtime. They have the No. 1 defense in the country, allowing just 58.1 points per game. The steady growth of 6-foot-4 junior point guard Milos Uzan, a transfer from Oklahoma who was brought in to replace All-American Jamal Shead, has been a key development. There were questions about Houston’s ability to score without the playmaking of Shead, but this team ranks 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency (per KenPom), which is a higher rating than last season.
Big East
Players to watch: St. John’s has three players deserving of Big East Player of the Year in 6-foot-6 senior guard Kadary Richmond, 6-foot-7 junior wing RJ Luis Jr. and 6-foot-9 junior forward Zuby Ejiofor. My vote would be Richmond, who recorded the Red Storm’s first triple-double since 1999 in a victory over Marquette on Saturday. Speaking of Marquette, 6-foot-5 senior guard Kam Jones has been among the best all-around players in the conference, averaging 18.9 points, 6.1 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals per contest. There isn’t a better two-way center in college basketball than 7-foot-1 Creighton senior Ryan Kalkbrenner, who ranks second in the conference in scoring (19.4), first in rebounding (9.0) and first in blocks (2.7). Villanova senior Eric Dixon, a 6-foot-8 forward, leads Division I in scoring (23.6 points per game) and shoots 42.9 percent from behind the arc. Besides Dixon, the most impressive perimeter shooter in the league is 6-foot-3 UConn sophomore guard Solo Ball, who averages 14.8 points per game.
NBA Draft prospect I have my eye on: Since returning from a high ankle sprain a month ago, UConn freshman forward Liam McNeeley has averaged 16.3 points and 6.8 rebounds per game. At 6-foot-7, McNeeley is an excellent spot-up shooter who should be able to fill in easily on any NBA team. He is projected to be the 14th overall pick in Hoops HQ’s mock draft.
Potential bid stealer: Eric Dixon and Villanova have put up a fight against every team in the Big East. They have wins over St. John’s, UConn, Marquette and Xavier and lost at Creighton by just two points. Both of their losses to Georgetown came down to the final possession and they have blown leads in multiple contests. This team is better than its 11-9 conference record and now it has the opportunity to prove it.
Betting favorite: St. John’s (+130)
My pick: The easy pick is St. John’s, considering its dominance in conference play and the fact that it will have a significant home-court advantage at Madison Square Garden. But I am going with Creighton. The Johnnies are a bit banged up at the moment — 6-foot senior guard Deivon Smith missed the regular season finale on Saturday and the aforementioned Richmond has been fighting through double groin pulls — and might be a bit worn out after the battles in a 20-game conference schedule. The Bluejays have the experience, leadership and talent to get the job done in a hostile road environment. They also are a difficult matchup for a team like St. John’s that likes to attack the basket because of Kalkbrenner’s exceptional rim protection.
