The past couple of days have been unkind to the No. 1 seeds in conference tournaments, with some suffering notable upsets and others needing all 40 minutes to hold on.
The same kind of chaos could be in store for the next batch of conference tournaments this week. Who are the favorites? Who’s on upset watch? And who can knock them off? Here’s a look:
SWAC
Dates: March 9-14
TV: ESPN+, ESPNU
Notable: No. 1 seed Bethune-Cookman (17-14, 14-4) is looking for its first-ever trip to the NCAA Tournament
Bethune-Cookman went all-in this past offseason to build its most talented roster in school history and they’re a few wins from it paying off. The Wildcats are led by 6-foot-6 senior guard Jakobi Heady at 18.1 points per game.
Who’s the biggest threat to knock off Bethune in the SWAC? There are a number of options, with one game separating Nos. 2 through 7 in the standings. However, Daeshun Ruffin, a 5-foot-10 senior guard for Jackson State who leads the conference with 23.3 points per game and is the SWAC Player of the Year, could be out for the tournament after suffering a lower-body injury last week. Another team to watch is Florida A&M (14-15, 11-7), which defeated Bethune-Cookman in the regular-season finale.
MEAC
Dates: March 11-14
TV: ESPN+, ESPN or ESPN2
Notable: Coppin State (7-24, 5-9) is ineligible due to APR penalties
After starting out league play 2-3, Howard (21-10, 11-3) has won nine straight games to earn the No. 1 seed. They’re led by 6-foot-4 senior guard Bryce Harris (17.5 points, 6.7 rebounds), who leads the entire MEAC in scoring. The Bison ranked first in most categories during league play, and a commanding 25-point road win over No. 2 seed Morgan State (14-15, 10-4) is an indication of how big of a favorite they’ll be in the tournament.
But Morgan State still is the last team to beat Howard, and the Bears have their own star scorer in Alfred Worrell Jr., a 6-foot-4 senior guard who is pouring in 17.4 points per game. Norfolk State (15-16, 8-6) is a dark horse to repeat.
Conference USA
Dates: March 10-14
TV: ESPN+, CBSSN
Notable: UTEP and Delaware failed to qualify for the Conference USA Tournament
No. 1 seed Liberty (25-6, 17-3) dominated Conference USA throughout the season and was one of the first teams in the country to lock up the top seed. But they’ve struggled mightily in the past few weeks, losing three of the last five games. All three losses came to teams in the middle tier, including Western Kentucky (18-13, 11-9), which is led by 6-foot-5 junior guard Teagan Moore (18.4 points).
Sam Houston (21-10, 13-7) is the No. 2 seed and has one of the top offenses in the country (83.3 points per game), with seven players in the rotation averaging between 8.4 and 14.4 points per game. Louisiana Tech (18-13, 11-9) is the complete opposite; its slow-paced style means it doesn’t score much, but the Bulldogs are top-15 nationally in scoring defense. The contrast in styles makes for a compelling Conference USA Tournament, especially with the Flames showing some vulnerability as of late.
Big West
Dates: March 11-14
TV: ESPN+, ESPNU, ESPN2
Notable: Long Beach State, UC Riverside and Cal State Bakersfield failed to qualify; this is also the last year for UC Davis and Hawaii in the Big West Tournament
No. 1 seed UC Irvine (22-10, 15-5) has been the face of the Big West for over a decade but the tournament results haven’t gone their way of late, with the Anteaters’ last tourney title coming in 2019. They have another good chance this year, with 6-foot-5 sophomore guard Jurian Dixon (15.7 points) backed by the league’s top defense. The next biggest threat is clearly Hawaii (22-8, 14-6), which split the regular-season series with the Anteaters.
Cal State Northridge (17-15, 12-8) had won seven straight games not too long ago before losing three of its last four, while Cal Poly (14-18, 10-10) has the Big West leading scorer in 6-foot-6 sophomore forward Hamad Mousa (20.4 points, 6.3 rebounds). Plus, UC San Diego (22-10, 12-8) and UC Santa Barbara (18-13, 11-9) are consistent contenders who’ll be popular upset choices to watch.
Mountain West
Dates: March 11-14
TV: Mountain West Network, CBSSN, CBS
Notable: This is the last Mountain West Tournament for San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, Colorado State and Fresno State before leaving for the Pac-12 next season
Due to the teams beating up on each other, there’s a strong chance that this is a one-bid league if No. 1 seed Utah State (25-6, 15-5) wins the tournament. But that means the Mountain West may be the safest bet to create a bid thief, with several teams capable of knocking out the Aggies.
An obvious candidate is San Diego State (20-10, 14-6), which has a balanced roster and its usual stout defense. Newcomer Grand Canyon (20-11, 13-7) was able to take advantage of its elite homecourt crowds, but can they win away from home? UNLV (16-15, 11-9) has the conference’s leading scorer, 6-foot-1 junior guard Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn (21 points per game). They may not win the tournament, but the Rebels are hosting the event and are capable of pulling off an upset or two.
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