The best time of the year has arrived. It’s Championship Week, which means Selection Sunday and the NCAA Tournament are around the corner. From now until early April, the action comes fast and furious. Cue “One Shining Moment” and buckle up.
The Madness got underway last week with the low- and mid-major league tournaments. Now it’s time for the power conferences to take center stage. Below is a breakdown of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Big East and SEC tourneys, including players to watch, potential bid stealers, predictions and more. Let’s do this.
ACC
Dates: Mar. 10-14
Three players to watch: Duke’s Cameroon Boozer, a 6-foot-9 freshman forward, is a lock for the Wooden Award. In fact, his KenPom Player of the Year rating (3.259) is the highest ever recorded on the database, which began keeping the metric in 2011. A do-it-all big man, Boozer leads the top-ranked Blue Devils in scoring, rebounding and assists. Louisville has a star freshman of its own in 6-foot-5 guard Mikel Brown Jr. The 19-year-old, who’s projected to be a top-10 pick in June, has sat out the last few games with a back injury to ensure he’s healthy for the postseason. Since Jan. 24, Brown has averaged 19.6 points and shot 40.4 percent from behind the arc. Miami’s Malik Reneau, a 6-foot-9 senior forward, is perhaps the most underrated player in the conference. With averages of 19.0 points and 6.6 rebounds, Reneau guided the Hurricanes to a 13-5 league record and a No. 3 seed in the ACC tourney. He could very well go head-to-head with Boozer in the championship game.
Potential bid stealer: If Virginia Tech was able to close out tight games, it would be near the top of the ACC standings and safely in the NCAA Tournament. Alas, the Hokies lost to Wake Forest, Stanford, SMU, Miami and Virginia by a combined 10 points. Still, VT owns two Quad 1 wins and has proven capable of hanging with pretty much every team in the league. NBA prospect Neoklis Avdalas, a 6-foot-9 freshman guard, has played much better of late, averaging 15 points and 4.5 assists over his last four outings.
Betting favorite: Duke
My pick: It’s hard to envision Duke losing in Charlotte, even without 6-foot-5 junior guard Caleb Foster and 6-foot-11 sophomore center Patrick Ngongba II, both of whom are sidelined by foot injuries. With Boozer leading the way, the Blue Devils rank in the top five nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Their only loss in ACC play came to North Carolina on a game-winning three from 6-foot-3 senior guard Seth Trimble. Outside of that, the Blue Devils routed most of their conference opponents, winning 14 of their 17 games by double digits.
Big 12
Dates: Mar. 10-14
Three players to watch: It’s all about the freshmen in the Big 12. BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, a 6-foot-8 wing, is on pace to become just the third freshman ever to lead the nation in scoring (24.7 points per game). The Cougars have struggled without senior guard Richie Saunders, who tore his ACL in mid-February, but Dybantsa has the talent to help them pull off some upsets in Kansas City. A loaded Houston team is led by 6-foot-4 freshman guard Kingston Flemings, who’s averaging 16.5 points, 5.4 assists, 3.9 rebounds and 1.5 steals. With his elite speed and explosiveness, Flemings is one of the most entertaining players in the sport (Baylor coach Scott Drew compared him to Russell Westbrook). And of course, all eyes are on Kansas freshman Darryn Peterson, a 6-foot-6 wing. Peterson has been in and out of the lineup for much of the year due to various injuries, but he should be good to go for the playoffs. The projected No. 1 overall pick, per Hoops HQ’s latest mock, has averaged 19.9 points and 4.2 rebounds in just 28.0 minutes.
Potential bid stealer: Cincinnati’s been one of the hottest programs in the Big 12. Hoops HQ bracketologist Brad Wachtel had Wes Miller’s team in his “Next 4 Out” earlier this week. After a disappointing loss to West Virginia on Feb. 5, the Bearcats went 6-2 to end the regular season, including victories over NCAA Tournament teams UCF, Kansas and BYU. Their defense is legit — 12th in the nation in efficiency, per KenPom — and their highly touted center Moustapha Thiam, a 7-foot-3 sophomore, has been at the top of his game. Over his last seven outings, Thiam has averaged 18.1 points, 9.1 rebounds and 1.3 blocks.
Betting favorite: Arizona
My pick: Houston. The Cougars’ defense is always superb; the question is whether they can produce enough offense to take down fellow juggernauts like Arizona and Iowa State. I’m betting yes. They’re in a good rhythm heading into the tourney, having shot 51.9 percent from the field and 44.2 percent from deep over their last three games. Flemings plays with no fear, and his backcourt mates — 6-foot-4 senior guard Milos Uzan and 6-foot-3 senior wing Emanuel Sharp — are accustomed to the bright lights.
6 Teams Are In the Tournament. Florida Grabs a No. 1 Seed…
March 9: Six teams are officially in the Tournament. Florida grabs a No. 1 seed and Stanford joins the field.
Big Ten
Dates: Mar. 10-15
Three players to watch: Top-ranked Michigan is deep and well-balanced, but its centerpiece is 6-foot-9 senior forward Yaxel Lendeborg, the favorite for Big Ten Player of the Year. Lendeborg is the ultimate Swiss Army knife, averaging 14.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.4 blocks and 1.2 steals. Illinois has the No. 1 offense in college basketball, per KenPom, thanks in large part to 6-foot-6 freshman guard Keaton Wagler. The 19-year-old, who was hardly recruited by power-conference schools coming out of high school, has averaged 18.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists while shooting 45.1 percent from the field and 42.0 percent from three. Iowa has the potential to surprise a lot of people because of 6-foot-4 senior guard Bennett Stirtz, who’s as good as any lead guard in the country. Stirtz ranks third in the league in scoring (20.5 points per game) and seventh in dimes (4.5 assists per game).
Potential bid stealer: Washington is just 5-14 in Quad 1 and 2 games, but Danny Sprinkle’s team has plenty of talent (even with all the injuries), including one of the premier big men in the country in 6-foot-11 freshman forward Hannes Steinbach (18.6 points and 11.6 rebounds per game). To go on a run, the Huskies will need their top guards — 6-foot-4 sophomore Zoom Diallo, 6-foot-4 sophomore Wesley Yates III and 6-foot-1 senior Quimari Peterson — to start knocking down their threes at a much higher clip. It’s a long shot, but hey, anything can happen in March.
Betting favorite: Michigan
My pick: Michigan has separated itself from the rest of the Big Ten, with its only conference loss coming to Wisconsin, 91-88, two months ago. Like Duke, UM ranks in the top five nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom. The only way I see the Wolverines losing in Chicago is if a team gets red hot from behind the arc, just as the Badgers did in that early January meeting. Otherwise, Michigan should take care of business and enter the NCAA Tournament as one of the favorites to win it all.
Big East
Dates: Mar. 11-14
Three players to watch: St. John’s senior Zuby Ejiofor, a 6-foot-9 forward, is likely to win Big East Player of the Year for a second consecutive season. The 21-year-old leads the Johnnies in scoring, rebounding, assists and blocks. UConn has a balanced attack, but the guy to keep an eye on is 6-foot-4 junior guard Solo Ball, who made the All-Big East Second Team. His shot has been up and down this season, but when he’s on, it raises the Huskies’ ceiling dramatically. Butler’s Michael Ajayi, a 6-foot-7 senior forward, has quietly had a monster year for coach Thad Matta. The versatile big man was named to the All-Big East First Team after averaging 16.3 points, 11.1 rebounds (fifth in the country) and 3.2 assists.
Potential bid stealer: How about Seton Hall? It’s nearly impossible to blow out Shaheen Holloway’s team because its defense is so elite (13th in efficiency, per KenPom). At the same time, the Pirates’ offense averages a meager 70.4 points and shoots 30.5 percent from behind the arc. If they can boost those numbers over the next week, they could go dancing.
Betting favorite: UConn
My pick: St. John’s rebounded from an embarrassing 72-40 loss to UConn on Feb. 25 with three straight wins over Villanova, Georgetown and Seton Hall to conclude the regular season. Ejiofor has been sensational, and guards such as 6-foot-1 junior Dylan Darling and 6-foot-5 sophomore Joson Sanon have stepped up big time. Meanwhile, the Huskies barely beat Seton Hall at home a week ago and were upset by Marquette on Saturday. With momentum on their side and the home crowd behind them, I like the Johnnies to get the job done at Madison Square Garden.
SEC
Dates: Mar. 11-15
Three players to watch: Two of the best lead guards in the country play in the SEC: 6-foot-3 freshman Darius Acuff Jr. (Arkansas) and 6-foot-4 sophomore Labaron Philon Jr. (Alabama). Acuff, a projected top-10 pick, is on pace to become just the second player ever to lead the SEC in scoring (22.2) and assists (6.4), joining Pete Maravich in 1969-70. Philon has taken a major leap as the new engine of Nate Oats’ high-powered offense, averaging 21.5 points, 4.8 assists, 3.3 rebounds and 1.2 steals. The SEC is also home to arguably the best defender — and No. 1 enforcer — in college basketball in Florida’s Rueben Chinyelu. A bruising, 6-foot-10 center, Chinyelu is averaging 11.3 points, 11.8 rebounds (first in Division I) and 1.1 blocks.
Potential bid stealer: Everyone had counted Oklahoma out. Then the Sooners won six of their last eight games (Vanderbilt, Georgia, Auburn, LSU, Missouri, Texas) to finish 17-14 overall and earn the No. 11 seed in the SEC Tournament. They’re still on the outside looking in when it comes to the Big Dance, but with their offense clicking at the perfect moment, perhaps they could rattle off some more victories in Nashville.
Betting favorite: Florida
My pick: The last time Florida lost was on Jan. 24 (76-67 to Auburn). Since then, Todd Golden’s team has won 11 in a row by an average margin of 21.7 points. The Gators are rolling heading into the postseason and I can’t imagine anyone slowing them down. With Chinyelu, 6-foot-11 junior forward Alex Condon and 6-foot-9 junior forward Thomas Haugh controlling the interior, Florida ranks third nationally in rebounding and fourth in defensive efficiency. That’s a recipe for success in March.
Meet your guide
