Bracketology: Men's 2026 Tournament Bubble Teams

Last night was not a good night for Indiana. The Hoosiers lost at home to Northwestern. This is a team fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives and a loss like this is only going to make things that much more difficult for them. Indiana entered the day as one of my last four teams in the field, but it ends the day on the wrong side of the bubble. Does that mean the Hoosiers are finished? Absolutely not as they get a matchup which could get them back in the field against Michigan State on Sunday. However, the loss to Northwestern drops the Hoosiers to 4-11 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents. Even more importantly, the Hoosiers WAB is now hovering around 50. There may still be time for Indiana to get back on track, but this is definitely a setback it did not need.

Another team that had a dreadful night was Auburn. It wasn’t necessarily a bad loss at Oklahoma, but the problem is that it was a loss. The Tigers are now 15-13 overall on the season and that record is a problem. It’s only happened two times where a team received an at-large bid while being only two games over .500. I suggest Auburn finish the season with some wins or else it will not be participating in the NCAA Tournament.

“Invitations Sent” are teams that are all but 100 percent assured of receiving an at-large bid even if they don’t win another game.

“Invitations Printed” are teams that are safely in the field for now, but still have work to do.

“On the List…for Now” are teams that are in the clear at the moment, but could fall out due to a couple of bad losses.

“The Uninvited” are teams that would be very unlikely to receive an at-large bid if the tournament field were selected today.

Before continuing, it’s important to note the following:

Result-Based Metrics (SOR, KPI, WAB): these metrics help determine inclusion into the field
Predictive Metrics (NET, BPI, Ken Pom, Torvik): these metrics play a role in the seeding of teams

Regarding the NET Quadrants, a Quad 1 game meets one of the following criteria:

A home game against an opponent ranked 1-30 in the NET
A neutral court game against an opponent ranked 1-50
An away game against an opponent ranked 1-75

First, here’s a real-time look at my cut line:

Last Four Byes

1.
UCLA Bruins
2.
Saint Mary’s Gaels
3.
Texas Longhorns
4.
Auburn Tigers

Last Four Teams In

1.
TCU Horned Frogs
2.
Santa Clara Broncos
3.
USC Trojans
4.
New Mexico Lobos

First Four Teams Out

1.
Indiana Hoosiers
2.
California Golden Bears
3.
Ohio State Buckeyes
4.
Virginia Tech Hokies

Next Four Teams Out

1.
VCU Rams
2.
Seton Hall Pirates
3.
San Diego State Aztecs
4.
West Virginia Mountaineers

ACC

Invitations Sent: Duke (No. 1 seed), Virginia (4), North Carolina (6), Louisville (6), NC State (8)

Invitations Printed: Miami (8), Clemson (9)

On the List…for Now: SMU (9)

The Uninvited: California (First 4 Out), Virginia Tech (First 4 Out)

Miami

The Good: SOR: 30, WAB: 32, 9-6 versus Quad 1/Quad 2, 7-4 r/n, beat UNC, Virginia Tech, won at NC State

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Florida St, 1-4 vs Quad 1A

The Outlook: The Hurricanes got revenge on Florida State on Tuesday night and are very close to locking up an at-large bid. They just need to avoid a bad loss to Boston College at home on Saturday and this team will be dancing.

SMU

The Good: no bad losses, wins over Louisville, UNC, Texas A&M (n), 12-8 versus Quad 1-Quad 3

The Bad: 1-4 against Quad 1A opponents

The Outlook: SMU handled its business at home last week against Louisville and Boston College. Both were important victories. A key win and avoiding a bad loss. The Mustangs are in pretty good shape to receive an at-large bid and getting at least a split out west against Cal and Stanford would be ideal.

California

The Good: 4-5 against Quad 1 opponents, beat UNC, UCLA (n), no Quad 3 or Quad 4 L’s

The Bad: 5-8 versus Quad 1/Quad 2, predictive metrics in 60’s, 1-3 vs Quad 2, NCSOS: No. 331

The Outlook: The Golden Bears continue to hang around the bubble, but have too many flaws to be in the field at the moment. However, they have a very reasonable schedule down the stretch with home games against SMU and Pitt and road games at Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. This is going to be an interesting resume to keep an eye on and I think a win on Wednesday over SMU could, at least for the time being, put Cal into the field.

Virginia Tech

The Good: Beat Virginia, Cal, won at Clemson, KPI: 42

The Bad: 2-8 Quad 1, WAB: 51, 1-5 against Quad 1A opponents, predictive metrics around 60

The Outlook: The Hokies held serve at home against Wake Forest on Saturday to remain one of the first four teams out. Now comes the hard part. The Hokies play at North Carolina and at Virginia and might need to win one of those in order to get back into the at-large field.

BIG EAST

Invitations Sent: UConn (1), St. John’s (5), Villanova (7)

Invitations Printed: None

On the List…for Now: None

The Uninvited: Seton Hall (Next 4 Out)

Seton Hall

The Good: beat NC State (n), 7-5 r/n

The Bad: only one win over an at-large team, WAB: 54, 1-4 Quad 1, 0-3 Quad 1A, two Quad 3 losses

The Outlook: The Pirates followed up a loss at home to Depaul by beating Georgetown on Saturday. Seton Hall has two Quad 3 losses and only one win over an at-large team. That’s just not going to cut it. Consider the Pirates on life support. The only positive is that they still get the opportunity to play at UConn and home against St. John’s. But is that really a positive?

Big Ten

Invitations Sent: Michigan (1), Purdue (2), Illinois (2), Nebraska (3), Michigan State (4), Wisconsin (6)

Invitations Printed: Iowa (8)

On the List…for Now: UCLA (10), USC (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: Indiana (First 4 Out), Ohio State (First 4 Out)

Iowa

The Good: KenPom: 24, T-Rank: 25, WAB: 29, 8-6 Quad 1/Quad 2, won at Indiana, beat Nebraska, 6-5 r/n

The Bad: NCSOS: 253, Q3 loss at Maryland

The Outlook: Iowa has such dominant predictive metrics in large part to how it fared in nonconference play as the Hawkeyes beat their Quad 4 opponents by an average of 34.5 points per game. They lost at Wisconsin on Sunday, but still appear to be on track for an at-large bid. Iowa will host Ohio State on Wednesday in what will actually be a massive game for the Buckeyes.

UCLA

The Good: BPI: 37, WAB: 38, SOR: 38, beat Purdue and Illinois

The Bad: KPI: 53, 2-7 Quad 1A

The Outlook: UCLA came up with a huge win over Illinois on Saturday to give the Bruins at least a little bit of breathing room. While their overall metrics are now in a much better spot, the job isn’t finished yet. UCLA heads to Minnesota on Saturday. It’ll be important for the Bruins to beat the teams they’re supposed to beat, regardless of location.

USC

The Good: won at Wisconsin, 9-7 Quad 1/Quad 2, 9-4 r/n

The Bad: 1-6 Quad 1, Ken Pom: 54, Quad 3 loss to Northwestern, two wins over at-large teams

The Outlook: USC lost at home to Oregon over the weekend which puts the Trojans at-large hopes in serious danger. It doesn’t get easier down the stretch either as USC hosts Nebraska, UCLA and plays Washington on the road. The Trojans are going to need to finish up strong to stay on the right side of the bubble.

Indiana

The Good: beat Purdue, won at UCLA

The Bad: 2-10 Quad 1, 4-11 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Outlook: The Hoosiers lost at home to Northwestern on Tuesday night which knocked them out of the field for now. Indiana has a chance to pick up a quality win on Sunday against Michigan State. It likely now needs this win to put itself back in play for a bid.

Ohio State

The Good: NET: 38, beat Wisconsin, UCLA, USC, no bad losses

The Bad: 0-9 Quad 1, 6-10 Quad 1/Quad 2, KPI: 52

The Outlook: Ohio State is 0-9 against Quad 1 opponents after losing at Michigan State on Sunday. That’s not going to cut it. Yes, North Carolina received an at-large bid last year with only one Quad 1 win, but the Tar Heels overall metrics were in a much better place. The Buckeyes head to Iowa on Wednesday night in a game that they really need to have.

Big 12

Invitations Sent: Arizona (1), Iowa State (2), Houston (2), Kansas (3), Texas Tech (4), BYU (6), UCF (9)

Invitations Printed: None

On the List…for Now: TCU (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: West Virginia (Next 4 Out)

TCU

The Good: 4-6 Quad 1, beat Iowa State and Florida, Wisconsin on a neutral court

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Notre Dame, Quad 4 loss to New Orleans, KPI: 60

The Outlook: The two bad losses on the Horned Frogs resume stick out like a sore thumb. Especially the Quad 4 loss to New Orleans. However, TCU improved its overall resume by knocking off Iowa State and then by winning at Oklahoma State. The Horned Frogs beat Arizona State on Tuesday night and remain in field for now.

West Virginia

The Good: beat Kansas, won at UCF, BPI: 45

The Bad: only two wins over at-large teams, NCSOS: 273

The Outlook: West Virginia has lost three in a row and now pretty much has zero margin for error. The Mountaineers finish the season with BYU, at Kansas State and UCF. They’re obviously going to need to win all three of these games and do damage in the Big 12 Tournament.

SEC

Invitations Sent: Florida (3), Tennessee (4), Alabama (5), Vanderbilt (5), Arkansas (5)

Invitations Printed: Kentucky (7), Texas A&M (8), Georgia (9), Missouri (10)

On the List…for Now: Texas (10), Auburn (11)

The Uninvited: None

Georgia

The Good: SOR: 36, beat Arkansas, Auburn, won at Missouri, at Kentucky, 9-7 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Ole Miss, NCSOS: 301, 1-3 Quad 1A

The Outlook: Georgia upset Kentucky at Rupp Arena on Tuesday night in what will likely be the reason the Bulldogs are going dancing. This was a team that had been trending towards the bubble the last few weeks and needed a win like this to change the trajectory of its NCAA Tournament hopes.

Missouri

The Good: SOR: 37, BPI: 43, beat Tennessee, Florida, Auburn, Vanderbilt and won at Kentucky and at Texas A&M, no bad losses

The Bad: KPI: 46, Ken Pom: 52, 7-8 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Outlook: The Tigers added a very important win over Tennessee on Tuesday to improve the Tigers overall projected seed. Missouri has the quality of wins to receive an-at large bid and just need to not go winless the rest of the way. If this team makes the NCAA Tournament, it seems destined to play in the First Four due to having very poor predictive metrics, relative to the rest of the bubble.

Texas

The Good: WAB: 43, SOR: 44, Ken Pom: 32, 5-7 Quad 1, beat Vanderbilt, Georgia, NC State (n), won at Alabama and at Missouri

The Bad: KPI: 54, 7-9 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Outlook: The Longhorns had won six of their last seven games before losing at Georgia over the weekend. This team is still in a good spot to receive an at-large bid thanks to their high-end wins. The only are of concern are their overall metrics. If Texas can finish solid down the stretch, it will be in the NCAA Tournament.

Auburn

The Good: won at Florida, beat St. John’s (n), Arkansas, NC State, Kentucky

The Bad: 15-13 overall, 9-13 Quad 1-Quad 3

The Outlook: Auburn has the necessary wins to be an at-large team. The problem is its overall record. Only two teams have ever received an at-large bid while being only to games over .500. And that’s where the Tigers are right now. The Tigers better win their next two home games against Ole Miss and LSU.

Other Candidates

Invitations Sent: Gonzaga (3)

Invitations Printed: Saint Louis (7), Utah State (8)

On the List…for Now: Saint Mary’s (10), Santa Clara (Last 4 In), New Mexico (Last 4 In), Miami OH (auto)

The Uninvited: VCU (Next 4 Out), San Diego State (Next 4 Out)

Saint Mary’s

The Good: Top 35 result-based metrics, Top 35 predictive metrics, 6-4 Quad 1/Quad 2, 9-4 r/n, beat Virginia Tech (n)

The Bad: no wins over at-large teams, 1-3 Quad 1, 17 of 23 wins against Quad 3 or Quad 4

The Outlook: Saint Mary’s still gets another opportunity against Gonzaga and Santa Clara at home. Winning one of these two games would be very helpful in its quest to lock up a bid.

New Mexico

The Good: Won at VCU, Beat Santa Clara, 9-5 Quad 1/Quad 2, KPI: 41, T-Rank: 43

The Bad: maybe just one win over an at-large team, Quad 3 loss at New Mexico State, SOR: 50, BPI: 51

The Outlook: The Lobos still get to face San Diego State at home and Utah State on the road and probably need to go at least 1-1. A lot will also depend on the success of other bubble teams, but New Mexico really still is in control of its destiny.

Miami (OH)

The Good: 24-0 against D-I teams, SOR: 22, WAB: 35, 1-0 Quad 2, 12-0 r/n

The Bad: NCSOS: 364, BPI: 84, zero Quad 1 games played, 22 of 23 D-I wins against Quad 3 or Quad 4

The Outlook: As the lone undefeated team remaining, the Red Hawks have one interesting resume. They would be the first team to ever receive an at-large bid without having even played a Quad 1 opponent. They had their toughest remaining game on the schedule at UMass on Tuesday and continued their winning ways. This team is trending towards going undefeated in the regular season.

Santa Clara

The Good: WAB: 43, SOR: 47, Ken Pom: 39, 8-5 Quad 1/Quad 2, beat Saint Mary’s

The Bad: Quad 4 loss to Loyola, 1-4 Quad 1, BPI: 50

The Outlook: The Broncos lost at home to Gonzaga the other week in what was a major missed opportunity. That Quad 4 loss to Loyola truly stands out on this resume, but their resume metrics are good enough to give them hope. One significant opportunity remains for Santa Clara as it heads to St. Mary’s on Wednesday.

San Diego State

The Good: beat New Mexico, 5-2 Quad 2

The Bad: 1-5 Quad 1, Quad 3 loss to Troy

The Outlook: The Aztecs are currently hovering on the wrong side of the bubble. Two critical opportunities remain on their schedule as they get Utah State at home and go to New Mexico this week. Should San Diego State go 0-2 in these two games, it will not receive an at-large bid.

VCU

The Good: KPI: 38, BPI: 45, 4-2 Quad 2, no bad losses, beat Virginia Tech (n)

The Bad: 1-5 Quad 1, T-Rank: 48

The Outlook: VCU had a chance to make a statement at Saint Louis on Friday, but failed to come up with the win. Unfortunately, the Rams probably needed this win in order to get an at-large bid. That being said, the bubble isn’t particularly strong so if VCU can win out and make a run to the A-10 championship game, the possibility of an at-large bid could exist..

Meet your guide

Brad Wachtel

Brad Wachtel, Hoops HQ's lead Bracketologist, has two decades of experience projecting NCAA Tournament brackets. He has appeared on countless outlets, including the Field of 68, SiriusXM College Sports, the Sports Grid, the Asbury Park Press and the Newark Star-Ledger. He is a former men's basketball administrator at Rutgers and director of operations for The Hoop Group.

Bracketology: Men’s 2026 Tournament Bubble Teams: Indiana suffers a brutal defeat, while UCF locks up a bid