Duke and Arizona lead the nation with eight Q1 wins. The next best team has six. Arizona currently holds the No. 1 overall seed, but things can certainly change. Duke will be in play for the overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament thanks to finally playing in a good ACC. The Blue Devils still have the potential to play eight more Q1 games in the regular season AND get to play Michigan in late February in a fun non-conference showdown. We don’t know how things will unfold, but that game very well could be the matchup that determines who the overall No. 1 seed is going to be.
The most significant win of the weekend was Illinois winning at Purdue. The Illini are now up to a No. 2 seed for me and put themselves in play for a No. 1 seed the rest of the way if they can keep up their success. The Big Ten now has FIVE teams in the current top 10 on my overall seed list. To go along with Illinois, Michigan, Nebraska, Purdue and Michigan State round out the list of teams out of the Big Ten that can potentially win it all.
Miami (OH) moved to 20-0 on the season (17-0 vs D1 opponents) after a scare at Kent State on Tuesday. The question is, what do the Red Hawks need to do in order to get an at-large bid? Well, they currently have top 30 overall result-based metrics which definitely puts them in play for an at-large bid right now. The problem is, the NCAA Tournament doesn’t begin today. With each loss, comes an uphill battle to achieve an at-large bid. I do think Miami (OH) would get an at-large bid if it finishes with one loss. Two losses? I think it’s probable, but certainly not definite. If the Red Hawks finish with three losses they won’t receive an at-large bid.
Here are a few thoughts regarding today’s bracket:
- UCLA had a very important week to get itself back in the NCAA Tourney picture. It started with a strong win over Purdue on Tuesday and then was followed up with a “taking care of business” type of win against Northwestern on Saturday. The Bruins have top 40 overall resume metrics which is a key factor as to why they are in play for a bid right now. An interesting stretch of winnable games upcoming as they head to a struggling Oregon team before three consecutive home games against Indiana, Rutgers and Washington. No reason why UCLA shouldn’t go 4-0 here.
- North Carolina surprised a lot of people (at least myself) as it went to Virginia and came out victorious. The Cavaliers had been one of the hottest teams in college basketball as they had won 11 of their last 12 games coming in to this one. The Tar Heels are back up to a No. 5 seed in my projections as they also hold wins over Kansas, Ohio State and at Kentucky.
- Tennessee and Auburn each picked up incredibly big wins over the weekend as the Volunteers won at Alabama, while the Tigers won at Florida. Both teams had been trending in the wrong direction for a while, but for them to be able to notch road wins of this caliber, allows each team to breathe a bit easier knowing they’re safely in the field as single digit seeds right now.
- Seton Hall has now lost four games in row after dropping road contests against St. John’s and DePaul. The Pirates were one of the most surprising teams to start the season, but have seemingly come back down to earth. They only own one win over a team in the current field (NC State), are just 5-6 against Q1 and Q2 opponents and have resume-metrics that are not quite good enough to keep them in the field. Important “get-right” week upcoming against Xavier and Marquette.
- NC State bounced back in a strong way after suffering a Q3 loss to Georgia Tech the other week. The Wolfpack went on the road to defeat a hot Clemson team in overtime on Tuesday. That was followed up with a win over a struggling Pitt team on Saturday. This is a team that still has a ton of work to do to enhance their profile. Fortunately, plenty of opportunities remain in ACC play.
- Missouri continues to align itself right on the bubble after snapping a two-game losing streak to beat Oklahoma in overtime thanks to a buzzer beater to end regulation and another one to win it in overtime. The Tigers are just 5-6 against Q1-Q3 opponents, but own wins over Auburn, Florida and at Kentucky to maintain a solid 3-3 record against Q1. They remain as one of my last four teams in.
- USC won at Wisconsin on Sunday night which ended up being its biggest win of the season. The Trojans were coming off a bad loss at home to Northwestern and needed a win over an at-large team to stay afloat. Heading into Sunday night’s game, the Trojans best win was against Seton Hall – a team that was just dropped out of the field. A win like this on the road over a Wisconsin team that beat Michigan on the road is going to be crucial for their quest to receive an at-large bid.
Last 4 Byes
USC, Miami FL, NC State, Virginia Tech
Last 4 In
UCLA, Ohio State, Missouri, California
First 4 Out
New Mexico, Seton Hall, Stanford, Texas
Next 4 Out
Butler, Santa Clara, TCU, Oklahoma State
Bracketology
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks
Florida A&M Rattlers
Missouri Tigers
UCLA Bruins
UMBC Retrievers
Merrimack Warriors
Ohio State Buckeyes
California Golden Bears
Michigan Wolverines
Long Island Sharks
Texas A&M Aggies
UCF Knights
North Carolina Tar Heels
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
BYU Cougars
Troy Trojans
Louisville Cardinals
UCLA Bruins
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Missouri Tigers
Iowa State Cyclones
North Dakota State Bison
Villanova Wildcats
Miami Hurricanes
Purdue Boilermakers
Portland State Vikings
Duke Blue Devils
Navy Midshipmen
Georgia Bulldogs
UCF Knights
Arkansas Razorbacks
Belmont Bruins
Kansas Jayhawks
Louisville Cardinals
San Diego State Aztecs
Michigan State Spartans
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Kentucky Wildcats
USC Trojans
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Austin Peay Governors
Arizona Wildcats
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks
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Florida A&M Rattlers
Iowa Hawkeyes
Utah State Aggies
Alabama Crimson Tide
Yale Bulldogs
Virginia Cavaliers
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Clemson Tigers
Miami Ohio Red Hawks
Houston Cougars
Wright State Raiders
Auburn Tigers
Virginia Tech Hokies
Illinois Fighting Illini
UT Martin Skyhawks
UConn Huskies
Merrimack Warriors
/
UMBC Retrievers
SMU Mustangs
Wisconsin Badgers
Florida Gators
Liberty Flames
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
St. John's Red Storm
Ohio State Buckeyes
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California Golden Bears
Vanderbilt Commodores
Winthrop Eagles
Saint Louis Billikens
NC State Wolfpack
Nebraska Cornhuskers
UT Arlington Mavericks
Bids by Conference
| Conference | No. of Bids |
|---|---|
| SEC | 10 |
| ACC | 10 |
| Big Ten | 10 |
| Big 12 | 7 |
| Big East | 3 |
| WCC | 2 |
Meet your guide
