We have so many dominant teams this season that it’s rare to see one of them lose a game. Well, in Iowa State’s case, it lost two. The Cyclones were one of a handful of undefeated teams heading into last week, but ended up getting crushed at Kansas on Tuesday and followed that up with a surprising loss at Cincinnati on Saturday. Look, even the best teams are allowed to have a bad week, so it’s hard to be upset with them, but the one thing that will be affected is their seed. The Cyclones entered last week as a no-doubt-about-it No. 1 seed, but now dropped to a No. 3 seed since every team in their seed vicinity continued to win. We shall see if Iowa State is able to bounce back this week as it faces a tough UCF team at home and then play on the road at Oklahoma State.
On January 3rd, St. John’s lost at home to Providence and there was mass panic in Queens. Were the Johnnies really going to miss the NCAA Tournament? Well, they responded emphatically by beating Butler, Creighton and Villanova ALL on the road. This was such an impressive stretch and may go down as their most important block of games of the season as their projected seed is now in the single digits.
Here are a few thoughts regarding today’s bracket:
- Kentucky is back on track to receive an at-large bid. The Wildcats had a tremendous week away from home as they picked up wins over LSU and Tennessee. They are now 3-5 against Q1 opponents with home games this week against Texas and Ole Miss. They have strong predictive metrics meaning their seed will be boosted as long as they have the qualifications to get in. And, right now, they do.
- North Carolina has lost three of its last four games after an 0-2 west coast trip against Stanford and Cal. The Tar Heels are now just 3-4 against Q1 opponents and are seeing their projected seed plummet with every loss accrued.
- Florida is back to being who we thought it would be after going on the road this week to sweep Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. The Gators were lacking quality wins a few weeks ago, but have now won eight of their last nine games and appear to be very much in play for a top four seed right now. This very well could be the team to beat in the SEC after getting a statement win against Vanderbilt.
- Vanderbilt finally fell from the ranks of the unbeaten as it lost at Texas on Wednesday and followed that up with a tough loss at home against Florida. No harm no foul for the Commodores as they still hold a very impressive resume, but the talk of a potential No. 1 seed is now highly unlikely. On the other hand, Texas is now a serious bubble contender as it also has wins over NC State and at Alabama.
- Virginia Tech had an absolutely heartbreaking loss at SMU on Wednesday night. The Hokies led by four points with seven seconds left AND had the ball. After a turnover and a missed free throw, SMU star guard Boopie Miller hit a half court shot at the buzzer to win the game 77-76. This could go down as a loss that ends up costing Virginia Tech an at-large bid. A win would have been massive. The Hokies followed up their loss at SMU by defeating Notre Dame at home to somewhat salvage a tough week.
- Seton Hall had a tough week. The Pirates lost a heartbreaker to UConn and then were defeated at home by Butler on Saturday. A 2-0 week would have had the Pirates worried about seeding and not inclusion for the NCAA Tournament. An 0-2 week, with no wins over teams that are likely in the tournament right now, and suddenly we have to see the Pirates kick it back into high gear to solidify their spot. Huge game on Tuesday at St. John’s.
- Houston has won 11 games in a row and has been elevated from a No. 3 to a No. 2 seed. The Cougars have top 10 metrics across the board and continue their domination of the Big 12. Massive game on Saturday at Texas Tech as they go for the season sweep of the Red Raiders.
- Iowa finally nabbed its first Q1 win of the season on Saturday as it went to Bloomington to come away with a convincing 74–57 win over Indiana. The Hawkeyes had been slipping down the seed list over the last week or two as there just hasn’t been enough substance on their resume. Indiana is not currently in the at-large field, but it’s still a quality win and the Hawkeyes first one on the road.
- George Mason is my last team in the field this week. The Patriots are 16-1 overall and sport a strength-of-record ranking of No. 31. No team with a top 40 SOR was kept out of the field last season. Unfortunately, they don’t have any wins over current at-large teams and their only remaining opportunity is against St. Louis in their last game of the regular season.
Last 4 Byes
Seton Hall, Kentucky, Auburn, Virginia Tech
Last 4 In
Missouri, Stanford, Oklahoma State, George Mason
First 4 Out
Ohio State, NC State, Baylor, Texas
Next 4 Out
New Mexico, California, Santa Clara, Indiana
Bracketology
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks
St. Peter's Peacocks
Missouri Tigers
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
Vermont Catamounts
George Mason Patriots
Stanford Cardinal
Michigan Wolverines
Long Island Sharks
Texas A&M Aggies
Saint Louis Billikens
Clemson Tigers
Murray State Racers
Michigan State Spartans
Utah Valley Wolverines
Louisville Cardinals
Oklahoma State Cowboys
/
Missouri Tigers
Illinois Fighting Illini
North Dakota State Bison
Georgia Bulldogs
Seton Hall Pirates
Houston Cougars
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Duke Blue Devils
Navy Midshipmen
Iowa Hawkeyes
UCF Knights
Arkansas Razorbacks
High Point Panthers
Virginia Cavaliers
St. John's Red Storm
San Diego State Aztecs
Iowa State Cyclones
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Miami Hurricanes
Auburn Tigers
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Austin Peay Governors
Arizona Wildcats
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks
/
St. Peter's Peacocks
Wisconsin Badgers
Saint Mary's Gaels
Kansas Jayhawks
Yale Bulldogs
Alabama Crimson Tide
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
North Carolina Tar Heels
Miami Ohio Red Hawks
BYU Cougars
Wright State Raiders
Utah State Aggies
Kentucky Wildcats
Purdue Boilermakers
UT Martin Skyhawks
UConn Huskies
Vermont Catamounts
/
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
SMU Mustangs
USC Trojans
Florida Gators
Liberty Flames
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Villanova Wildcats
Stanford Cardinal
/
George Mason Patriots
Vanderbilt Commodores
Troy Trojans
Tennessee Volunteers
Virginia Tech Hokies
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Portland State Vikings
Bids by Conference
| Conference | No. of Bids |
|---|---|
| SEC | 10 |
| ACC | 9 |
| Big Ten | 8 |
| Big 12 | 8 |
| Big East | 4 |
| WCC | 2 |
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