As you read this, I imagine many of you are having the same thought. Brrrrr! A massive winter storm is poised to wreak havoc around the country this weekend, and it is already disrupting the college basketball schedule. Not to worry, though, my fellow hoopheads. There are plenty of terrific games heading your way. It’s a good weekend to stay inside, stay warm and watch hoops (and maybe a couple of NFL playoff games as well).
After going ice cold to start this season, your favorite prognosticator is starting to get a little heat with my picks. I’m hoping to continue that streak today. Here are my picks against the spread for the day’s top five games. Enjoy the action, everyone.
North Carolina at Virginia
Seth’s Analysis
The Cavaliers’ resurgence under first-year coach Ryan Odom is one of the more unnoticed of many surprises this season. This is a chance to remedy that. North Carolina is coming in battered and bruised, having lost three of its last five due to a soft-as-pudding defense that gave up an average of 92 points per game in losses to SMU, Stanford and Cal. But the Tar Heels are still a blue-chip brand, and a convincing win by Virginia would get people to pay attention. The Cavs still play at an economical pace (No. 290 in tempo on KenPom), but they rank 17th nationally in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. They’re fourth in offensive rebound percentage and 12th in both three-point defense (28.9 percent) and block percentage. So they both defend and score inside and out. That’s why Virginia is scoring 84.0 points per game even though it doesn’t play very fast. Virginia has the size and athleticism in the frontcourt to do battle with the Tar Heels’ dynamic duo of 6-foot-10 freshman forward Caleb Wilson and 7-foot junior forward Henri Veesaar, but I don’t think North Carolina has a similar ability to match up with Virginia’s most potent scorers, 6-foot-9 freshman Thijs De Ridder (16.1 points per game) and 6-foot-4 senior guard Malik Thomas (13.6). Virginia is a good team playing at home and looking to make a real statement. I also like that this line is a point-and-a-half smaller than the one projected at KenPom.
Houston at Texas Tech
Seth’s Analysis
Texas Tech has lost just one game since Dec. 13, and that was a hard-fought 69-65 decision at Houston. Getting revenge won’t be easy, but I think the Red Raiders are up to it. I don’t like that Texas Tech is getting such limited production from its bench, but at least Grant McCasland is getting greater contributions out of all of his starters. Junior forward J.T. Toppin and sophomore guard Christian Anderson might be as good a one-two punch as there is exists in college basketball (41.8 points per game combined), but LeJuan Watts has emerged as a dependable third leg of this stool. The 6-foot-6 junior transfer from Washington State ranks third on the team in scoring (13.4), and he is second in rebounding (6.5) and assists (2.8). He also has a knack for showing up big in the biggest games, such as his 21 points in a loss at Illinois on Nov. 11 and 20 points (to go along with 8 rebounds and 2 assits) in last Saturday’s home win over BYU. Senior guard Donovan Atwell, a transfer from UNC Greensboro, is also coming off a 21-point effort (one shy of his season high) in Tuesday’s 92-73 win over Baylor. Needless to say, it will take a big effort to hand Houston its second loss of the season. (The Cougars’ first came by three points to Tennessee on Nov. 25.) Houston does not have any real deficiencies, but it does rank No. 359 on KenPom in free throw rate. In a close game on the road, the foul line is usually where a game is won or lost.
St. John’s at Xavier
Seth’s Analysis
Talk about a storyline. St. John’s coach Rick Pitino is going for his 900th career win, and yes that does include the 123 games at Louisville that were “vacated” from his record. (That’s why St. John’s is promoting this impending milestone as “on-court wins.”) The only thing that’s standing in his way is Pitino’s son Richard, who is in his first season at Xavier. Pitino fils would no doubt like to put off his old man’s celebration for another day, but his main concern is picking up his Musketeers after they suffered a heartbreaking 94-93 loss at Creighton Wednesday night on a last-second putback off a missed free throw. (One of the first things you learn in Basketball School is to box out the free throw shoooter.) The Musketeers are 3-5 in the Big East, but they’ve been playing better of late, thanks to the offensive incandescence of 6-foot-7 forward Tre Carroll, who had 29 points in the loss and is averaging 17.3 points per game, as well as their ability to take care of the ball. (They’re No. 9 on KenPom in turnover percentage.) St. John’s is playing better of late, particularly since Pitino pere moved 6-foot-8 senior forward Dillon Mitchell into the starting lineup five games ago. Mitchell is averaging 11.4 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.2 steals in those games, and more importantly the Red Storm have won all five of them. Given the stakes and the setting, and the size of the point spread, I like Xavier’s chances to at least put this outcome in doubt.
Illinois at Purdue
Seth’s Analysis
Just when Illinois was really hitting its stride, the team got knocked off balance by a hand injury to 6-foot-2 senior point guard Kylan Boswell. He is projected to be out about a month. That’s particularly portentous given that the Boilermakers a) have the best point guard in the country in Braden Smith and b) are coming off a frustrating two-point loss at UCLA Tuesday night. Purdue led by six points with just under two minutes to play but uncharacteristically fell apart down the stretch. Illini freshman Keaton Wagler has been one this season’s most remarkable stories — he was a consensus three-star recruit whose only other high-major offer came from Minnesota – and he was superb in his first game running the show full-time in Boswell’s absense, finishing with 13 points, 8 assits and 0 turnovers in an 89-70 home win over Maryland. Doing the same on the road at Purdue, however, is an entirely different matzoh ball. I’ll be interested to see if Purdue senior forward Trey Kaufman-Renn starts regaining his All-American form. He is averaging 7.9 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists over his last four games. Not terrible, but he’s capable of much more.
Tennessee at Alabama
Seth’s Analysis
This is a big SEC matchup, but it is being overshadowed by the specter that Crimson Tide center Charles Bediako will take the court after a Tuscaloosa judge (who just happens to be an Alabama donor) granted a Temporary Restraining Order allowing Bediako to play pending an injunction hearing on Monday. Bediako practiced for the first time on Thursday, so there’s no telling how much impact he will have. But Tennessee leads the nation in offensive rebound percentage, so from a basketball perspective you can understand Oats’ desire to play him. The Vols’ defense has been slipping of late, most notably during their second-half meltdown at home against Kentucky last Saturday. The Wildcats shot 11 for 24 from three in that game. It’s problematic to be a mediocre three-point defensive team against Alabama, which leads the nation in attempts from behind the arc (36.0), ranks second in made threes (12.6) and third in scoring (93.1 points per game). Neither of these teams had a midweek game, so there’s no scheduling advantage, either.
This week: 3-2
This season: 20-30
Meet your guide
