The march to March marches on. Two months from this weekend we will have a bracket. Are you ready for some madness?
There has been a lot of separation taking place as conference play continues. Some teams inflated their records during the nonconference, and now the rubber is hitting the road — mostly on the road against league opponents. We’ve got another fresh slate of games to line up your Saturday, and I’ve got another edition of my precious prescience. I finally made up some ground by going 3-2 against the spread last week, and on Saturday I plan to make up some more.
Here are my picks against the spread for the day’s top five games.
Virginia at SMU
Seth’s Analysis
I’m pretty sure this game won’t end as dramatically as SMU’s last game did. Senior guard Boopie Miller drilled a halfcourt heave at the buzzer Wednesday night to give the Mustangs a thrilling 77-76 win over Virginia Tech, with a perfectly typed pyro blast to boot. Miller is no long shot. He’s one of the top players in the conference and had 24 points, 6 assists and 1 turnover in the win. He also had 27 points and 12 assists in SMU’s 97-83 win over North Carolina on Jan. 3. Miller missed SMU’s game at Duke due to the flu, and the fact that the Mustangs still gave the Blue Devils a stiff challenge before losing 82-75 speaks to this team’s potential. The Mustangs got 23 points and 7 rebounds from freshman forward Jaden Toombs in that game. Virginia has won four straight since falling to Virginia Tech in triple overtime on New Years Eve. That includes a 79-70 win Tuesday night at Louisville despite an off night from leading scorer Thijs De Ridder (9 points on 3 of 10 shooting). This is the kind of marquee game from the non-blueblood programs that the ACC has been missing the last few seasons. These teams are evenly matched, but only one is playing at home.
Florida at Vanderbilt
Seth’s Analysis
Vanderbilt finally lost Wednesday night, courtesy of a decisive 80-63 thumping by Texas. The Longhorns did a good of exposing the Commodores’ deficiencies inside. Texas outscored Vanderbilt by 16 in the paint, by 8 on the foul line and won the rebounding battle 42-24. That does not bode well against a Florida squad that boasts arguably the best frontcourt in the country in 6-foot-9 junior Thomas Haugh, 6-foot-11 junior Alex Condon and 6-foot-10 junior Ruben Chinyelu, with 7-foot-1 senior Micah Handlogten coming off the bench. The big question with the Gators has been guard play, but 6-foot-2 sophomore point guard Boogie Fland is coming off solid back-to-back performances against Tennessee and Oklahoma (38 points combined), and Todd Holden is getting significant production off the bench from Slovenian sophomore Urban Klavzar. Florida ranks in the top three on KenPom in both offensive and rebound percentage, it’s ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency and 13th in height. Those assets, plus a surge in confidence from winning seven of its last eight games, should allow the visitors to prevail.
Arkansas at Georgia
Seth’s Analysis
Give the Razorbacks credit for bouncing back from their embarrassing 22-point loss at Auburn. Yes, it came against South Carolina, arguably the worst team in the SEC, but it was still impressive watching freshman point guard Darius Acuff dish 13 assists with zero turnovers to go along with 18 points in the 108-74 win. Georgia had a much different experience Wednesday night, falling in overtime at home to Ole Miss on Patton Pinkins’ buzzer beating putback. Georgia has put together a gaudy 14-3 record in Mike White’s newly turbo-charged system (No. 2 in tempo on KenPom), but that came mostly against a nonconference schedule ranked No. 321 in the NET. In losing to an Ole Miss team that came in with a 10-7 record (1-2 SEC) and getting dominated 92-77 at Florida, the Dawgs are indicating that they’re probably going to struggle against the upper echelon teams in this league. And Arkansas is definitely that.
BYU at Texas Tech
Seth’s Analysis
You gotta love a classic clash of superstars. BYU freshman forward A.J. Dybantsa has scored at least 20 points in his last 10 games, including his 25-point, 6-rebound performance in Wednesday’s 76-70 home win over BYU. Texas Tech junior forward J.T. Toppin is averaging 21.3 points, 11.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists, and he just went for 31, 13 and 7 (plus 5 blocks) in the Red Raiders’ 88-74 win over Utah on Wednesday night. Both also have high-caliber running mates in BYU senior guard Richie Saunders (19.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists per game) and Texas Tech sophomore guard Christian Anderson (19.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, 7.4 assists). So there will be no shortage of star power, which should create an amazing environment in Lubbock. In an otherwise evenly matched game, it’s hard to go against the home team, especially considering that although BYU has just a single loss this season by two points at UConn, the Cougars have yet to score a win over a ranked team, and the combined record of their four Big 12 opponents is 2-10 in league play.
St. John’s at Villanova
Seth’s Analysis
It’s almost as if Rick Pitino is good at coaching basketball. The Hall of Famer made a masterful adjustment when he re-inserted 6-foot-9 senior forward Dillon Mitchell into the starting lineup for the last three games. Not only did this make the Red Storm bigger and more efficient defensively, but it also sent a jolt through the stagnant offense. The Johnnies’ point guard woes have been well-documented, but Mitchell is a skilled passer who dished out 12 assists to 3 turnovers as a starter while helping the team to three straight wins. The extra size will come in handy against a Villanova squad that has one of the top offensive rebounders in the country in 6-foot-10 senior forward Duke Brennan. The Wildcats have been a pleasant surprise, losing just three games despite using a heavily refurbished roster under first-year coach Kevin Willard. That includes a gritty 88-82 win at Providence Tuesday night thanks to a lift from well-traveled senior guard Devin Askew provided off the bench (20 points, 7 assists, 1 turnover). If this game were taking place a few weeks ago, I would probably go with the home team, but I believe St. John’s has found its stride.
This week: 3-2
This season: 17-28
Meet your guide
