It’s been about six weeks since the season started, with Christmas and conference play just around the corner. What better time to take stock of the landscape in women’s college hoops? It’s time for the Stock Report.
Still the Gold Standard: South Carolina
It’s hard to find an upward trajectory when you went 109-3 over the last three seasons while winning a pair of national championships, but there was some question whether Dawn Staley’s Gamecocks had lost their mystique after being trounced at UCLA. All they’ve done since then is win four straight by an average of 33 points a game, including wins over the teams currently ranked 9th (Duke) and 12th (TCU) in the AP Top 25. The Gamecocks are No. 1 in both adjusted offensive rating and adjusted defensive rating while facing the third-toughest schedule in the country (by opponents’ average net rating) according to Her Hoop Stats, still very much the team to beat and favorite to cut down the nets in April.
Don’t Sell: TCU
TCU skyrocketed from unranked in the preseason to the program’s first appearance in the AP Top 10 thanks to a 9-0 start, which included a win over Notre Dame in the Cayman Islands Classic. That undefeated streak came to a screeching halt in Sunday’s 33-point loss to South Carolina on a “neutral” floor in Fort Worth, but it isn’t time to bail on the Frogs. Hailey Van Lith is the only player in the country averaging at least 19 points and six assists, while Sedona Prince and Madison Conner give the Frogs a trio averaging at least 14 ppg. Only seven D-I teams can match that production, and an Elite 8 run seems like a reasonable goal for a team that has never gone to the Sweet 16.
Don’t Buy: Alabama
Alabama made its first preseason AP Top 25 appearance since 1998 and crept as high as No. 19 while cruising through a marshmallow-soft early schedule, but the Crimson Tide tumbled all the way out after failing in their toughest test so far. The Tide faced only one high-major opponent (Clemson in the Emerald Coast Classic) before losing 69-65 at Cal last Thursday, dropping them to 0-1 in the top two quadrants and 1-1 against the NET top 100. They’ll have a chance to add a first quad one win next Friday against Michigan State (NET No. 6) in the West Palm Beach Classic, but it’s a lot to ask of a team that’s had almost no meaningful game experience so far.
Hard to Ask for a Better IPO: Sarah Strong
The top recruit in the freshman class has lived up to both her name and her billing in her first month with UConn, and has been arguably UConn’s best player over the team’s last five games heading into their visit to Notre Dame — yes, even better than Paige Bueckers. The freshman is averaging 17.2 ppg in that span, one point behind Bueckers for the team lead, while hitting 61.4% from the field to Bueckers’ 50.8%. Strong’s instant impact, Bueckers’ sustained brilliance and the return of a healthy Azzi Fudd have this team looking like Geno Auriemma’s best in several years.
Trading Halted: Notre Dame
There’s no question that Hannah Hidalgo and Olivia Miles make this Notre Dame team one of the best in the country, given they’re responsible for two of three losses suffered by teams ranked ahead of them (at USC and vs Texas). But even if the Fighting Irish add another signature win when UConn comes into South Bend, it’s impossible to know this team’s ceiling without knowing what they’ll get from injured forwards Maddy Westbeld and Liza Karlen. Surviving overtime against Texas with six players was impressive, but common sense and back-to-back losses to TCU and Utah in the Cayman Islands say Notre Dame needs more than one healthy big to win a national championship.
Women’s College Basketball Top 25 Rankings
Eden Laase’s rankings for Week 11. Ohio State slides and three new teams move in.Buy Low: Louisville
Louisville fell to 5-4 and out of the AP Top 25 following back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and UConn, the former a gut punch after taking a double-digit lead into the final frame and the latter a 33-point laugher. While it’s been a disappointing start, all four losses fall in quad one — also against UCLA in Paris and at Kentucky in OT — and the young Cards have shown a lot of fight. The experience may prove invaluable for a team with eight true freshmen and a redshirt among the 15 players on the roster, led by one of the nation’s most exciting freshmen to watch in Tajianna Roberts. A favorable ACC schedule should give them a chance to climb back into the picture as they don’t see Notre Dame, Duke or UNC until February, and don’t face any of them on the road until the final four games of the regular season.
Beware of Bubble: Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets matched the best start in program history with a 60-point win over ULM on Wednesday to improve to 10-0, but will face their toughest test yet with a trip to Chapel Hill Sunday to face North Carolina — perhaps even with new UNC football coach Bill Belichick in attendance! The visit to UNC will be their second quad one game so far, the other a three-point home win over Mississippi State in the SEC/ACC Challenge. They’ve also got a tough opponent coming to Atlanta next Saturday (NET No. 33 Nebraska) to wrap up the non-conference slate, so it wouldn’t be shocking if there are a couple losses in Georgia Tech’s near future. If there aren’t, this team’s ceiling might be higher than anyone realizes.
