Hoop Thoughts: Michigan’s Big Decision, Opening Day Thoughts

When most people answer this question, they tend to center it on the NCAA Tournament. If he loses in the first round, no chance. If he makes it to the second weekend, probably. Final Four, definitely. There’s no doubt the NCAA Tournament is the biggest stage in the sport, but it is also warped and capricious. Crazy stuff happens in March. Any school that bases a decision this big on something so whimsical is making a serious error.

That’s especially true in today’s NIL, portalized ecosystem. The ability to manage a program has always been important in college sports, but never moreso than now. No coach can win without good players, and in order to build a championship roster a coach needs to earn the faith of wealthy alumni, fans and agents, and to use his resources smartly. The NIL Era is only a few years old, yet we already have plenty of examples of coaches who do not have enough resources to compete, and many others who had plenty of money to spend but did so unwisely.

This works both ways. If the Wolverines have a great season and bomb out early in the tournament, Michigan should still extend Boynton’s deal. If they have a lousy season but put together a miracle run, they may want to think twice. Two years ago, NC State was on the verge of firing Kevin Keatts. When he went on a crazy run to the Final Four, the school had no choice but to retain him … and then fired him a year later.

It’s long past time to squash the notion that the NCAA Tournament is the best — or, worse, the only — way to judge a coach’s performance. The job involves so much more, today more than ever. Michigan and everyone else making coaching decisions would do well to bear that in mind.

Opening Day Hoop Thoughts

• Before I weigh in on the first full day of games, let me remind everyone that it wasn’t too long ago that many fans and media rightly complained that college basketball season opened with a dud. That was not the case this season. This is partly because coaches have long ago lost the fear of losing early-season marquee games, but also because there are so many more media partners demanding for made-for-TV matchups. Fox Sports went way outside the box to bring us Notre Dame-Villanova in Rome on Sunday morning as well as a quality doubleader on FS1 the next night. Monday’s loaded slate was punctuated by the doubleheader in Las Vegas put together by TNT Sports, which only last year fully entered the college basketball regular season business after it lost the NBA. (And yes, I work for both entities.) TNT also put together the huge UConn-Michigan game on tap for Friday night.

Football will always be king in America, which is why it is so crucial that college basketball showcase as many top nonconference matchups as possible. It’s one of many reasons why for all the uncertainty about how it is being governed, the sport has never been healthier.

• Monday’s most impressive performance was turned in by UCLA, which knocked off Arizona 84-75 in Vegas. My main takeaway from watching this game was how comfortable Trent Perry looked running the offense. The 6-foot-4 junior did a great job running the point for the Bruins last season while Donovan Dent was hurt, but when Dent came back, the two didn’t always co-exist well. It’s not easy stepping into Dent’s shoes, but Perry looked terrific while going for 21 points, 5 assists and 0 turnovers.

It’s also notable that UCLA’s young European prodigy Nikola Kusturica is not yet a great scorer (10 points on 3 of 11 shooting), but he impacts the game in a lot of ways. We know it’s only a matter of time before the scoring piece falls into place. The fact that UCLA could beat the Wildcats without that dimension shows how high of a ceiling this team has. 

• Ivan Kharchenkov went nuts for Arizona, scoring 38 points, but the more important takeaway for me was the play of sophomore guard Derek Dixon, who had 18 points and shot 4 of 12 from three. He seemed to gel with sophomore point guard J.J. Mandaquit, a transfer from Washington. (By the way, I really don’t understand Tommy Lloyd’s logic in starting Bryce James and then only playing him for six minutes.) Arizona lost this game because it gave up several offensive rebounds down the stretch, and 11 in all. That’s why Lloyd is so eager to get Clemson five-in-five transfer R.J. Godfrey eligible, but the courts have not been kind to that effort, and there’s no sign that it’s going to be remedied in Arizona’s favor anytime soon.  

• The best game of the night was Gonzaga’s 78-72 escape from Purdue in Las Vegas. Pegging Gonzaga sophomore forward Davis Fogle as a breakout candidate was an easy call, and he proved as much by going for 22 points (9 for 10 from the foul line), 5 rebounds and 2 assists. The Zags were blindsided when their projected point guard Mario Saint-Supery bolted for Spain over the summer, so Fogle’s ability to initiate the offense will be critical.

Gonzaga is also benefiting from the presence of two five-in-fivers who are eligible due to court orders, Xaivian Lee and Javon Bennett. A third, 6-foot-11 forward Chauncey Wiggins, remains ineligible. There’s not much depth here, so as long as Lee and Bennett can play, this team has a chance to do some damage in March. Without them, this might not be an NCAA Tournament team.

• The story of the night for Purdue was 7-foot-4 junior center Daniel Jacobsen, who looks like the next great Boilermaker Big. He’s slighter and lighter than Zach Edey, and Matt Painter uses him accordingly in high ball screens and dribble handoffs. Jacobsen had 22 points and 7 rebounds despite foul trouble, but it wasn’t enough to overcome a 5-for-21 night from three-point range. Purdue also shot 2 for 25 in a 76-53 exhibition loss to UConn, so this is officially a thing. Following a legendary point guard like Braden Smith is really hard, but Purdue is going to need more from 6-foot-4 sophomore point guard Omer Mayer, who had 8 points on 2 of 11 shooting, 5 assists and zero turnovers in 25 minutes.

• The best vibes win of the night by far was earned by Memphis, which nicked Iowa State 80-76 in the Sanford Pentagon. This is yet another big season for Penny Hardaway, who is entering his ninth season as head coach at his alma mater and has just one NCAA Tournament win (in three appearances) on his resume. I don’t know of a single coach of a high-major program (which I still consider Memphis to be) who has dealt with such consistent roster turnover.

Once again, the Tigers went through a total overhaul during the off-season, but for one night at least, and against a pretty good team, they looked like a connected group. Jayden Reid, the transfer from Northwestern, lit up the Cyclones for 26 points, and Washington State transfer Rihards Vavers hit several big threes down the stretch. The challenge for Memphis will be to keep the momentum going because the next three games are brutal: home against VCU, at Vanderbilt, and home against Louisville. If Memphis can come out of that stretch with a 2-2 record it could go a long way towards building an NCAA Tournament resume.

• I’m not overly concerned with Iowa State, but the loss did underscore how vital it is for the Cyclones that Tamin Lipsey remain eligible. The court deciding his case recently denied the NCAA’s request to expedite the appeal, so that’s encouraging. This is especially critical because the team’s other starting guard, 6-foot-3 sophomore guard Killyan Toure, is out until January due to a shoulder injury. The Cyclones got 19 points off the bench from Robert Morris transfer Ryan Prather Jr., but they’ve got some work to do before Purdue comes to Ames on Dec. 5. 

• I’ve got Florida No. 2 on my top 25 due to their awesome frontcourt, but I’ve been skeptical that their guard play is of championship caliber. Baskeball is always easier when the three-ball goes down, and that showed as the Gators made 11 of 26 from behind the arc and led pretty much wire to wire to beat No. 14 Miami, 77-67. Slovenian import Domen Petrovic knocked down a couple of treys off the bench — might want to keep an eye on him.

But what really stood out from this game is how suffocating Florida’s defense was. Miami has a five-for-five stud in forward Malik Reneau, and the massive Gators made him disappear. He had 5 points on 1 of 6 shooting. The Canes’ other offensive star, 6-foot-6 sophomore guard Shelton Henderson, was 2 for 13 and scored just 7 points. Villanova transfer Acaden Lewis kept things close by going for 24, but Miami’s high-powered offense was no match for the Gators’ D. The size, length and strength of Florida at that end of the court will be a major theme in the sport this winter.

• Ohio State did well to hang with BYU for about 30 minutes in Salt Lake City, but the Buckeyes had no answer for the Cougars’ five-out (or should I say five wayyyy-out) offense. Robert Wright III shredded them for 33 points, and the Cougars got some sizzling shooting from Syracuse transfer Tyler Betsey (4 of 6 from three, 15 points). More concerning for Ohio State is that its much-ballyhooed freshman Anthony Thompson had a night to forget. He did not score a field goal and played only 20 minutes. No doubt better days are ahead for him. Sophomore forward Amare Bynum is going to have a spectacular season, but if Ohio State doesn’t learn to do a better job stopping dribble penetration and defending high ball screens, then it’s going to be hard to beat the really good teams in the Big Ten.

• Speaking of which, you can dismiss the competition all you want, but when you beat a Division I team by 75 points, you’ve done something really significant. That’s what Illinois did to poor FDU Monday night, and without its best player, David Mirkovic, who is recovering from foot surgery over the summer. I spoke with Brad Underwood on Sunday about Mirkovic, and he indicated that the main issue is making sure Mirkovic is not only properly healed from the procedure, but that he is completely in shape and ready to play. When players come back to competition before they’re in proper condition, they are far more likely to get injured, and Illinois doesn’t want any more of that. Mirkovic also underwent an emergency appendectomy this week, but it didn’t sound like he was close to coming back as it is. Senior guard Jake Davis had to leave the game with an apparent shoulder injury. He’s an important Glue Guy on this squad, but however you slice it, this was an extremely impressive opening performance. You might want to jump on that Illinois futures bet I floated your way over the weekend.

• As for the biggest loser of the night, that’s easy. Oklahoma entered its home game against East Texas A&M a 28.5-point favorite and suffered a shocking 68-64 defeat. I’ve seen way too many opening night weird scores to draw big conclusions, but obviously given that this is a critical season for sixth-year Sooners coach Porter Moser, this was a suboptimal start.

North Carolina did not suffer the same ignominy at home against Western Carolina, but the Tar Heels faced game pressure all night before emerging with an 80-72 win. We all know Michael Malone can coach ball, and it’s not easy to come into the college game with no experience. So maybe he has a half-mulligan for this first season. But all I hear is how UNC has an NIL budget that rivals anyone’s, and if that’s the case I honestly don’t know what he got for all that money. The Tar Heels are No. 48 on KenPom and No. 50 on BartTorvik. Yes, of course, it’s early and things can change drastically, but for the moment that’s my prevailing thought about this squad.