‘Expect a Real War’: UConn and Illinois Are Ready to Rumble

No. 2 seed UConn will take on No. 3 seed Illinois on Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium in the first game of the national semifinal doubleheader. The winner will face either Michigan or Arizona on Monday night.

This is a rematch of the memorable 2024 East Regional Elite Eight game in Boston, which featured a historic 30-0 run by UConn, and a battle of two of the sport’s biggest brands. The Huskies are chasing their third national championship in the last four years, while the Fighting Illini are striving to reach the mountaintop for the first time. Illinois has the second most NCAA Tournament wins (50) among programs that haven’t won it all yet, trailing only Purdue (53).

Both teams entered the tournament with their share of skeptics, having stumbled a bit in the weeks prior. UConn was toppled by lowly Marquette in its regular-season finale on March 7, then got blown out by St. John’s in the Big East Tournament final. Illinois dropped four games in February — three in overtime — and lost another OT heartbreaker to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals.

Apparently they were saving their best for when it mattered most. To get to Indianapolis, the Huskies had to knock off Michigan State and Duke (Nos. 10 and 1 on KenPom, respectively) in a loaded East Region. The Illini had to survive Houston, a popular pick to cut down the nets, and a red-hot Iowa team that managed to upset Florida and Nebraska.

UConn has been boosted by the emergence of Reed, who’s averaging 21.8 points, 13.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.3 blocks in the tournament. Reed’s greatness on the interior, coupled with the hot shooting and clutch play of 6-foot-8 senior forward Alex Karaban on the perimeter, has carried the Huskies through an arduous March road.

“He’s just been a monster,” Karaban said of Reed. “He’s really playing like the most dominant player in college basketball right now.”

Outside of a tough shooting day against Duke, Karaban has been on an absolute tear. He averaged 22 points across UConn’s first three tournament outings, connecting on 44 percent of his threes. 

“What you’re going to see and what you’ve seen in this NCAA Tournament is a guy who’s attacking the game,” UConn coach Dan Hurley said after Karaban scored a career-high 27 points in a Round of 32 win over UCLA. “He’s aggressively looking for all of his shots. He’s working his way to the ball. He’s driving the ball. I just think that he learned a lot from that Big East championship game and that game at Marquette, where he left those games not going out on his shield the way a player of his caliber should. I think that’s the difference. He’s not going down without firing all of his bullets.”

For the Illini, one of the keys has been rather simple: They have gotten fully healthy and adjusted to having their full lineup. Senior leader Kylan Boswell, a 6-foot-2 guard, missed a month of action from mid-January to mid-February with a broken right hand. Just eight days before Boswell returned, 6-foot-7 junior guard Andrej Stojakovic suffered a high ankle sprain, which messed with his “conditioning” and “timing,” coach Brad Underwood told The Hoops HQ Show. Stojakovic has come off the bench since then, embracing his role as the sixth man.

“It was a reacclimation with those guys,” Underwood said. “It took a little bit. It’s much harder than most people think. We had Jake Davis and Ben Humrichous playing great. We’ve kind of hit our stride with that. And Andrej fell in love with the sixth man role. He’s been playing great. And we’ve found a nice continuity that’s helped us sustain things better, especially on the defensive side.”

Michigan Is All Personality — It Makes Them Better

Led by locker room goofball Yaxel Lendeborg, the Wolverines have put together a unique team culture — and a viral TikTok account

There were reasonable concerns about the Illini’s defense throughout the regular season. Despite boasting the nation’s No. 1 overall offense on KenPom, Illinois appeared susceptible to an upset because of its inconsistency on the other end. It was one of only two top-three seeds with a defense that ranked outside the top 25 prior to the Big Dance. But the Illini have flipped that script entirely, holding their opponents in the tournament to just 59.8 points per game on 38.1-percent shooting from the field and 29.0 percent from three.

“It’s been a mindset for us,” 6-foot-6 senior forward Jake Davis told Hoops HQ. “Our offense is one of the best in the country. We’re going to score the ball. For us to win it, it really comes down to playing defense. That’s been a big focus for us as a team.” 

Offensively, Illinois has been fueled by sensational freshman Keaton Wagler, a 6-foot-6 guard who’s averaging 17.9 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.3 assists. Wagler is surrounded by capable outside shooters and relentless rebounders, including 6-foot-9 freshman forward David Mirkovic and 7-foot-1 junior center Tomislav Ivisic. Illinois’ offense has been especially potent because it doesn’t turn the ball over and grabs 13.4 offensive boards per game. 

These teams met back in late November at Madison Square Garden in a post-Thanksgiving matinee. The game was dominated by the Huskies, 74-61, but both teams were dealing with injuries and clearly still figuring out how to mesh. Wagler logged just 14 minutes in the loss, registering a season-low three points. Reed, who was hobbled by an ankle injury, put up two points in 15 minutes. 

“We’ve matured a lot since then,” Davis said. “A bunch of the young guys were still figuring it out. But I know at the same time, they’re a different team from then as well. So it’s a completely different matchup.” 

“You take away concepts from that game,” Karaban said. “You take away how physical they are, how badly they want to rebound, how elite they are at rebounding, and just offensively how they have one through five guys who can shoot.”

Much of Saturday’s contest will be decided by which team controls the backboards and protects the ball better. Illinois is the tallest team in the country, but UConn is one of the most physical. Reed was able to find success in the paint against two other big teams in Duke and Michigan State. “Expect a real war,” Hurley said. “We’ve been in multiple wars in this tournament.”

Given that Champaign is merely a two-hour drive from Indianapolis, Illinois should have a significant home court advantage. Thousands of fans decked out in orange packed into Lucas Oil Stadium on Friday to watch the Illini practice. 

Forty-five minutes earlier, Underwood settled into a chair in the media workroom for his second formal press conference and millionth interview of the week. Asked to deliver an opening statement, Underwood summed up the sentiments of the college basketball world perfectly.

“It’s a great day. It’s Friday. It’s the day before all of this starts. Very excited,” he said. “At some point, you just want to play.”