The wait is over. The suspense is done. The moment has arrived. The tradition continues.
Finch is back.
The NBA draft will take place over two days next Wednesday and Thursday at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. Everyone will be tuned in to see what happens, but you are a smart Hoops HQ reader, so you want to know what’s going down for real way ahead of time.
In other words, you want to hear from Finch.
For the uninitiated, allow me to explain. As I have for many years, over the last week I interviewed six NBA scouts. These are men who spend all year crisscrossing the country, hustling to make connections, steering mid-sized rental cars, sleeping in moderately priced hotels and watching lots and lots of basketball. Their job is not only to decide how well a guy plays, but what makes him tick. I granted all six of these scouts anonymity so they could speak freely about 50 of the top prospects in this year’s draft. (There a few really good international players in the draft, but I focused solely on the collegians since that’s my bailiwick.)
Then I then took all of their comments and distilled them into one paragraph for each player as if they were spoken by one person named Finch. That idea was birthed many years ago by my former Sports Illustrated colleague Alex Wolff, who applied it to an anonymous NBA scout because it is the surname for the character Scout in the greatest novel ever written, To Kill A Mockingbird.
One more note: If these evaluations seem overly harsh, that’s on me, not Finch. Every player on this list is really good — that’s why they are on the list — so I asked Finch to lean into the deficiencies and question marks that go into making these very important decisions.
Today I provide Finch’s take on 25 of the top 50 college players in the draft. On Monday, you’ll get the rest in part two. Let’s do this.
Ace Bailey, 6-foot-8 freshman forward, Rutgers: “Biggest high risk, high reward guy in the draft. He could be a ten-time All-Star or he could totally fail. Lack of maturity is a big question mark. He’s not a bad kid, it’s just all the goofball stuff that concerns me. I question how coachable he’s going to be. He has a chance to be one of the best players in this draft, but his shot selection and attention to detail is questionable. I don’t mind that he measured small at the combine. He can make tough shots, but you can’t rely on tough shots all the time. It was disappointed that Rutgers didn’t win more. If you’re as good as you say, you should win more games.”
Tamar Bates, 6-foot-4 senior guard, Missouri: “Very mature young man. His stock definitely rose towards the end of the year and at the combine. He’s a good athlete but I don’t know if he’s super dynamic offensively. He’s going to have to become a knockdown shooter in order to be effective. Defensively, he’s going to have to get a little bit better. Size is going to be a factor. Could be like a Herb Pope. He’s a very system-based player. Solid second-round pick.”
Koby Brea, 6-foot-6 senior guard, Kentucky: “I’m not big on him. He didn’t shoot it as well at the combine as I was hoping. I worry about his lateral quickness defensively. Worry about his ability to get away from people off the dribble. He’s not super athletic. I know he can shoot it but he didn’t shoot it well in bigger games. He’s a good shooter but not a confident shooter. He needs to learn not to hesitate so much. He’s a two-way guy. Maybe someone takes him in the second round, but I wouldn’t.”
Johni Broome, 6-foot-9 senior forward, Auburn: “He’s not athletic, but he’s a big intangible guy. He’s tough and he’s big, he knows how to play, can pass it to make shots, can rebound. Started off the year hot but really tailed off down the stretch. He’s going to have to play the five because I don’t think he can guard the fours. That’s going to be a challenge for him. I don’t know if he’s an inside force yet. I think he plays in our league for a long time. ”
Carter Bryant, 6-foot-7 freshman forward, Arizona: “Big time upside, but he’s not proven. I hear he’s a great kid. He’s got good size for a wing, he’s athletic, got a nice stroke. Has a lot he needs to develop. Just didn’t play a ton of minutes at Arizona. He’s exactly what the NBA is looking for these days. He’s athletic, long arms, can move his feet defensively. The guy’s just brimming with potential, but potential can be a dirty word sometimes.”
Dylan Cardwell, 6-foot-11 senior center, Auburn: “Impressive rebounder and screener but I don’t know what else he does. G League guy. I don’t see any kind of draft possibility with him. Should probably go to Europe.”
Nique Clifford, 6-foot-5 senior forward, Colorado State: “Love his intangibles. He transitioned to the wing last year, which helps. Tough kid, defends multiple positions. The biggest question is whether he’s going to be able to shoot it consistently with range. You can tell he’s worked on his body. Has a tendency to pull the ball back a little bit when he shoots it. If he can get that straightened out, he’ll be a long-time NBA player. Mid to late first round, I’m sure.”
Walter Clayton Jr., 6-foot-2 senior point guard, Florida: “Clutch player. Tough as heck. Great kid, did really well in his interviews. He could have great success. The biggest question I have is he’s not a point guard, he’s an undersized scoring guard. How will he handle it when he gets picked up fullcourt by some of these athletes he’s going to face in the NBA? I watched some games where he struggled with that. A lot of people are concerned about his speed and quickness at the next level and being able to get by people, but he’s really good at using ball screens. Could be a VanVleet type player. I think he’ll find a place, maybe as a backup.”
Cedric Coward, 6-foot-5 senior guard, Washington State: “He’s another guy that has talent but hasn’t proved much. You’re going off two years at Eastern Washington and six games at Washington State. The only tough team he played against was Iowa and he had nine points. I like that he has gotten better. He’s a nice looking kid, nice stroke, decent athlete. He may end up being as good as they say, I just don’t know. You’re rolling the dice a little bit. His workouts have been impressive but my concern is I don’t know if he does anything at a high, high level.”
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Egor Demin, 6-foot-8 freshman point guard, BYU: “I think he’s going to be big time. Showed great improvement during the year. Body got much better. Stroke has gotten better. Really sees the floor. He’s like Josh Giddey, but better. Heard he’s the greatest kid ever. I’m concerned about his competitiveness. He struggled against good defense and better competition. He may be more suited on the wing but most people see him as a point guard. He was so weak in college, his shooting and turnovers were impacted.”
Eric Dixon, 6-foot-8 senior forward, Villanova: “Gonna be an uphill battle for him. Could be like a Trayce Jackson-Davis if he goes to a veteran team. If he goes to a bad team that expects more out of him, it could be a bad situation. What position does he play? He’s not big enough to be a five. Can he guard on the perimeter? His shooting will give him a chance. Came in as a fat kid but got his body better at Villanova. The guy’s tough, strong, can really stroke it. Not super athletic. Could be a decent rotation player if he goes to the right team. Rebounding and defending at the five is going to be a challenge for him.”
VJ Edgecombe, 6-foot-4 freshman guard, Baylor: “He’s grown on me. As the year went on, he got better. At the end of the day, he’ll be the second best player in the draft. Big time athlete. Still a little bit raw fundamentally. Love him in the open court. His shooting stroke is not perfect, but he makes shots. The three-point shooting is the big question mark. Just needs experience.”
Jeremiah Fears, 6-foot-3 freshman point guard, Oklahoma: “I think he’s tremendous. Elite offensive player. The games I watched he didn’t do much defending. He reclassified up, so he should actually be a freshman this year. That’s a big plus for him. Didn’t play on a great team and they asked him to do a lot of things. Athletic, tough, will be a good defender. He’s got the whole package. He turned the ball over some, but those things happen. He can score on all three levels. Decent size.”
Cooper Flagg, 6-foot-8 freshman forward, Duke: “Do I need to say anything on him? He’s a generational player. If there’s a question about him, most people would say if he’s a consistent shooter, but I think he’s proved that wrong already. He’s a good athlete, not great. Good shooter, not great. He’s just going to get better and better. He’s falling into a great situation in Dallas because he won’t have to take on too much too early. The system will be really good for him.”
Rasheer Fleming, 6-foot-8 junior forward, Saint Joseph’s: “Really interesting one. I like what I’m seeing. Good player. Late bloomer. He was like the ninth man on his high school team. I don’t know if he understands how good he is. He’s long as hell. Big body, rebounds. Can score on the block. I think he can shoot it a little bit. Could be a three and D guy. You wonder about his lack of experience.”
Vlad Goldin, 7-foot senior center, Michigan: “I’m not a huge fan. He’s just so mechanical. Struggled a little bit at the combine. He’s strong and tough and he’s supposed to be a good kid. Maybe on the right team he’ll be okay. He’ll have to be a traditional big, but he’s going to have to rebound and defend in order to find a role. A guy that could go to the G League and start to figure things out.”
Caleb Grill, 6–foot-3 senior guard, Missouri: “He looked good in Chicago. Shot it with confidence. Pretty good athlete. He’s had some ups and downs with injuries. He’s a specialist. Can really shoot it, but I don’t know what else he can do. He can really shoot the bal. Athletic. Size could be a factor. I’d say borderline second-round pick.”
Dylan Harper, 6-foot-5 freshman point guard, Rutgers: “Second-most-ready guy to play in this draft. I think his upside is a little bit limited, but he knows how to play. Not super athletic, but he’s tough. You can tell he’s been around the game a long time. The question mark for him is, how consistent will his three-point jump shot be? If you can’t win in college as a point guard, how can you win in the NBA?”
Kasparas Jakucionis, 6-foot-5 freshman point guard, Illinois: “Our guys are all over the board on him. I like him, I don’t love him. He’s a decent shooter, but the lack of quickness scares me a little bit. I have question marks about him at point guard because he struggled against defensive pressure, but that’s where he’s going to have to make it. He ended up not shooting the ball as well as I thought he could and that was supposed to be his strength. Physically struggles when people really get up into him. He’s got to stop turning the ball over in space, where he throws it all over the place.”
Sion James, 6-foot-5 senior point guard, Duke: “Not a big fan. He hurt himself in Chicago. He couldn’t get anything done. Not the quickest guy. I don’t see how he affects the NBA. He’s kind of a mechanical player. He does safe things. He’s a tough, physical kid, but if he gets into the NBA everything is going to speed up. He has a slow release on his shot. What does he do to get on an NBA court? He’s a winner, he plays hard, but I don’t think that gets you in the NBA.”
Tre Johnson, 6-foot-5 freshman guard, Texas: “He’s got a little bit of nasty to him. Nice size, can really shoot it and can get his own shot. He’ll be one of the better players in this draft. Could be the next coming of Devin Booker. I love his serious approach. Once he gets in an NBA strength program, he’ll be fine. He takes a lot of tough shots but he makes them. The NBA will be good for him because the floor is going to open up and he won’t be the focal point the way he was at Texas.”
Kam Jones, 6-foot-3 senior point guard, Marquette: “Kind of a tweener. He played the point this year but that took away from his shooting. He got exposed in Chicago because he’s not a point guard. He’s a sporadic shooter. If he becomes a knockdown shooter then he gives you a secondary ball handlers. A guy you want in your locker room because you know he’s going to bring positive energy every day. Somebody might take him in the second round and give him a two-way.”
RJ Luis Jr., 6-foot-6 junior forward, St. John’s: “Should have gone back to school. He’s tough, he’s competitive, shooting is definitely a question mark. He’s not real dynamic offensively. Big time athlete, competitive kid, but sometimes he loses it mentally. Takes really tough shots. What happened in the NCAA Tournament? Did Pitino overreact or did the kid do something to piss him off? His shooting will have to improve for him to make it.”
Ryan Kalkbrenner, 7-foot-1 senior center, Creighton: “Not a big fan. He’s big and skilled, but he’s soft as shit. When he plays against tough teams, he just wilts. But he’s got talent, so you never know. We’re starting to give big guys a chance again, like with Zach Edey and Donovan Clingan. He’s a proven rim protector. He struggles sometimes when he’s in traffic trying to get rebounds or score. The guy wins games and he makes their defense a lot better. Someone may take him high but I wouldn’t.”
Kon Knueppel, 6-foot-5 freshman guard, Duke: “I really like him. Deadly shooter, great competitor. He’s not a sexy guy, but he’s mature for his age. Knows how to play, makes tough shots. He’s more athletic than you think. Reminds me of Doug McDermott. He does a great job using his body to get angles and create shots for himself. He’s going to have to figure out how to get his shots. My concern with him is on the defensive end. Is he going to be able to guard his position?”
