Happy March! This weekend was quite a way to kick off the best month of the year. The action will only grow more thrilling and dramatic until the nets get cut down in San Antonio. Buckle up.
Auburn and Duke are the current favorites to win the national title, but the team I have my eye on is Alabama. The Tide lost 79-76 at Tennessee on Saturday on an incredible 40-foot buzzer-beater from 6-foot-4 senior guard Jahmai Mashack. That game did not negatively impact my opinion of them at all; if anything, it did the opposite. Alabama led 76-72 with 36 seconds remaining and should have closed it out. A combination of tough calls and mental lapses led to the gut-wrenching loss. Coach Nate Oats took accountability for several of his team’s key mistakes down the stretch, including not calling a timeout before 6-foot-4 freshman guard Labaron Philon got whistled for a crucial five-second violation with 3.8 seconds left.
There are a lot of positives to draw from the defeat, however much it stings right now. Alabama matched the physicality and toughness of the top defensive program in the country (per KenPom) in a hostile environment. Offensively, the Tide shot 38.1 percent from deep but squandered many easy opportunities, going just 12-of-29 on layups and converting only 65.4 percent of their free-throw attempts.
When I wrote about Alabama in January, the team was connecting on just 32 percent of its threes. That number has climbed to 35.1 percent, as the Tide continue to lead the nation in points per game at 91.0. Concerns about the defense are overblown. The metrics are a bit deceiving for three reasons. One, Alabama plays at such a fast pace that it is bound to surrender a lot of points because of the uptick in possessions. Two, the Tide do not slow down when they have a commanding lead and sometimes let go of the rope a little. And three, a couple of dreadful outings have skewed the data. Yes, the Tide are giving up 80.1 points per game, which ranks near the bottom of Division I, but they are 37th in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom — a major improvement from last season, when they finished 111th and still went to the Final Four.
Assistant coach Brian Adams was hired last summer to shore up the defense. During his decade coaching in the NBA, Adams helped build six top-five defenses, including that of the 2008 NBA champion Boston Celtics. Adams has been pleased with Alabama’s progress defensively throughout the year, outside of a few complete duds. The worst of those came two weeks ago against Missouri, when the Tide lost 110-98 and allowed the Tigers to shoot 60.3 percent from the field.
“Couldn’t defend anybody, couldn’t execute the scouting report, couldn’t make adjustments. So that was a real punch to the gut,” Adams tells Hoops HQ. “From there, we had to really step it up with what this SEC is. And overall we’ve been making strides all year with the defense.”
Since the disaster at Missouri, Alabama has strung together impressive defensive performances against Kentucky, Mississippi State and Tennessee, holding each below 43 percent shooting. After letting Mississippi State 5-foot-11 sophomore guard Josh Hubbard erupt for 38 points earlier in the season, the Tide held him to just 21 points on 8-of-22 shooting in last Tuesday’s dominant 110-73 victory. To Adams, that night was a clear indication that this group can be elite defensively when it has the right mindset and executes the game plan. It did so for the most part against Tennessee, but a couple of mishaps — like not pressing up on Mashack on the final possession — resulted in the heartbreaker.
“You have to experience pain in order to get success,” Adams says. “I do think people know exactly where we’re at. Frustration is there because we let one get away, but at the same time, time and time again this year, when we’ve been challenged versus teams that are considered the most physical, hard-playing teams in the country that will potentially punk you — started with Houston, Texas A&M, the Mississippi States of the world, and now Tennessee — we’ve risen to the occasion. To me, that is a battle-tested thing that we can take a lot from. You hope that translates to the NCAA Tournament.”
With the exception of the Cooper Flagg show, little attention has been paid to the ACC this year — and for good reason. Hoops HQ bracketologist Brad Wachtel projects the league to receive just three bids: Duke, Clemson and Louisville. That would be the fewest for the conference since 2000.
Still, Clemson (24-5 overall, 16-2 in the ACC) has been drastically overlooked and is a dark horse candidate to reach the Final Four. Three of the Tigers’ five losses have come in overtime. They are 20th in the NET and in the top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom.
This team is particularly intriguing because of its adaptability. It beat Virginia 71-58 in Charlottesville on Saturday behind a combined 35 points from its frontcourt duo of 6-foot-8 senior forward Ian Schiefflin and 6-foot-11 senior center Viktor Lakhin, a transfer from Cincinnati. Clemson scored 48 of its 71 points in the paint, outrebounded the Cavaliers by 10 and locked up defensively. The game was played — and won — on the interior.
The Tigers also have won games on the perimeter this season. They are shooting 38.4 percent from behind the arc, which ranks 17th nationally. Guard Chase Hunter, a 6-foot-4 senior, is averaging 16.3 points and connecting on 42.0 percent of his 5.6 three-point attempts per contest. Clemson buried 14 threes in a 79-69 victory over SMU on Feb. 22.
“That’s why we’re having a good season: We’ve won a lot of different ways,” Clemson coach Brad Brownell said. “We’ve won a couple games where we’ve had to score it inside or score it from two, and then obviously we’ve had games where we’ve made 14 threes. That’s part of what makes us good — we can do both.”
That will be Clemson’s calling card in the postseason. So much of what happens during the NCAA Tournament is matchup-dependent, but the Tigers have the ability to play several different ways and still win.
Every team needs a player like Auburn 6-foot-7 senior guard Chad Baker-Mazara. He may get carried away at times, but you can’t quantify the impact of his passion and energy. When it doesn’t result in costly technical fouls, Baker-Mazara’s relentless style injects life into the Tigers and simultaneously drains life from their opponents. That was the case in Saturday’s 94-78 victory over Kentucky, which was Auburn’s first win at Rupp Arena since 1988. Baker-Mazara finished with 22 points and 3 steals, and made numerous key plays that silenced Big Blue Nation.
“There are times when Chad is so passionate and he takes that passion and it goes in the wrong way, and it doesn’t necessarily reflect well on him or on Auburn,” coach Bruce Pearl said afterward. “But I’m not trying to change who he is. I’m trying to have it be a situation where he can be himself and just grow and learn. And this is the second game in a row he hasn’t gotten a technical foul. We’re making progress!”
Somehow Auburn is able to balance seriousness and fun — competitiveness and levity — in a way that few other teams can. No one embodies that skill more than Baker-Mazara. “We know how to get serious, but at the same time, if you’re not having fun then what are you doing?” Baker-Mazara told The Field of 68. “We might have to work a little bit more on being serious.” I’d say this team doesn’t need to change a thing at the moment. And neither does Baker-Mazara.
Game of the Weekend: No. 5 Tennessee 79, No. 6 Alabama 76
Mashack’s buzzer-beater capped off one of the best games we’ve seen this year. It was just his 15th three-pointer of the season. He got help from 6-foot-5 junior guard Chaz Lanier and 6-foot-4 senior guard Jordan Gainey, who had 18 points apiece. All-American guard Mark Sears, a 6-foot-1 senior, scored 24 points for Alabama. The Vols are now in a good position to secure a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, while the Tide may fall to a No. 2.
Upset of the Weekend: Georgia 83, Texas 67
This wasn’t a shocking result, but it will have massive ramifications for the NCAA Tournament, considering both teams entered the weekend on the bubble. Texas was favored by 5.5 points and really needed to protect home court. Georgia was led by 6-foot-5 sophomore guard Silas Demary Jr., who scored 26 points on 8-of-14 shooting.
Player of the Weekend: Chucky Hepburn
Hepburn, a 6-foot-2 senior guard for Louisville, erupted for 37 points on 9-of-11 shooting from the field and 6-of-6 from three in the Cardinals’ 79-68 victory over visiting Pitt. It was the first time in his career that Hepburn, who transferred from Wisconsin, scored 30 in a non-overtime game. He got red-hot at the end of the first half, hitting all six of his three-pointers in a five-minute span.
Highlight of the Weekend: Kyle Melia
Melia, a senior communications student at Florida, buried a halfcourt shot on his second attempt Saturday in Gainesville to win $19,000 during ESPN’s “College GameDay.” Check out the video below. ONIONS!
Lowlight of the Weekend: Arkansas’ loss to South Carolina
Arkansas blew a golden opportunity to improve its NCAA Tournament résumé facing South Carolina in Columbia. The Gamecocks entered the game with one SEC win but routed Arkansas 72-53. It was an embarrassing performance by the Razorbacks, who shot 28.8 percent from the field and 13.6 percent from three and scored just 14 first-half points. They remain in Wachtel’s “Last 4 In”, but this loss certainly hurt them.
Five Games to Watch This Week (all times ET)
BYU at Iowa State, Tuesday, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2
The Cougars have won six games in a row, moving themselves off the bubble and into the field. This will be their biggest challenge in two months. Iowa State has lost just once at home this season.
Maryland at Michigan, Wednesday, 6:30 p.m., BTN
Michigan remains in contention for the Big Ten regular-season crown, but it must take care of business at home against a good Maryland team.
Florida at Alabama, Wednesday, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Two of the best offensive teams in the country meet for the first time. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring, closely contested game at Coleman Coliseum.
Alabama at Auburn, Saturday, 2:30 p.m., ESPN
Auburn has clinched the SEC regular-season title, but this rivalry game is always heated. Alabama can get revenge after losing 94-85 to the Tigers in Tuscaloosa on Feb. 15.
Duke at North Carolina, Saturday, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
Time to add another chapter to the historic Tobacco Road rivalry. Duke dominated the first matchup 87-70 at Cameron Indoor Stadium. UNC is on the bubble, and a win here obviously would be huge for its chances of making the Big Dance.
Additional Notes
- Significant injury news: Kentucky 6-foot-6 senior guard Jaxson Robinson will have surgery on his wrist and miss the rest of the season. Robinson was averaging 13.0 points and 3.5 rebounds for the Wildcats. Duke 6-foot-6 junior guard Tyrese Proctor did not play against Florida State on Saturday because of a bone bruise in his knee that he sustained in Tuesday’s win over Miami. He is expected to return to action soon.
- Saturday, St. John’s clinched its first outright Big East regular-season title since 1985, beating Seton Hall 71-61 at Madison Square Garden. The game was a “white out,” so coach Rick Pitino pulled out the white suit!
- With an 80-57 win over Oral Roberts on Saturday, Omaha claimed the outright Summit League title. If you didn’t know, the Mavericks have the best tradition in college basketball: When they win, they beat the crap out of a trash can in the locker room. Seriously.
