Welcome back to Daily Best Bets, where I give you my top picks and analysis for today’s college basketball games. As always, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
We are currently 35-33-1 and -$14 on the season. Today, we’re betting on the afternoon action in the early rounds of the A10 and Big East tournaments, plus the Patriot League Final.
Let’s get to it.
#15 Fordham vs #10 Rhode Island, 2 p.m., USA
Line: URI -4.5, Over/Under: 155.5
The Bet: $15 on Fordham +4.5 (-110)
The battle of the Rams in the first round of the Atlantic 10 tournament, now in its inaugural year in Washington DC after moving from Brooklyn’s Barclays Center, features an intriguing defensive matchup. Fordham excels at keeping opponents off the three point line and defends jump shooters spectacularly, though they allow the fourth most shots at the rim on defense — a clear failure in their defensive philosophy. Their offense remains their Achilles’ heel, rating outside the bottom-75 in both three point shooting and rim attack efficiency while operating at the 51st quickest tempo nationally. Rhode Island struggles from the free throw line and recently beat Fordham in a game where the outcome had minimal implications, but now Fordham has their season on the line and should force URI into the midrange shots and off-the-dribble threes they defend so well. With their backs against the wall and a favorable matchup against a team that doesn’t particularly excel at attacking the rim, Fordham should keep this close enough to cover, and maybe even steal the win.
#5 Navy vs #2 American, 7 p.m., CBSSN
Line: American -2.5, Over/Under: 132.5
The Bet: $15 on American -2.5 (-110)
Today’s Patriot League championship game will determine who punches their ticket and represents the conference in March Madness, and American’s profile gives them a decisive edge. The Eagles operate at one of the nation’s five slowest tempos and are a jump shooting team that rates 348th nationally in rim attack frequency, instead relying on efficient shooting from both the free throw line and three point range to power one of the conference’s better offenses. While they don’t necessarily defend the three point line well, they happily take a high percentage of their own shots from deep while also operating out of the post at a high frequency. American’s tournament win over Colgate was verified by ShotQuality’s expected data, suggesting their success is no fluke. Navy lacks offensive firepower, struggling with shooting, rim attacks, and transition offense, and though they keep opponents from attacking the rim. They were somewhat fortunate to escape Bucknell in their previous matchup, making this a good spot to fade the Midshipmen and lay the points with the Eagles.
#9 Butler vs #8 Providence, 4 p.m., Peacock
Line: Butler -1.5, Over/Under: 146.5
The Pick: $15 on Butler -1.5 (-110)
The Big East tournament opens at Madison Square Garden with Butler positioned to overcome recency bias after losing five of their last six games — a deceiving stat considering they faced the murderers’ row of Xavier (twice), Villanova, Creighton, and St. John’s. Providence enters in genuinely poor form, evidenced by their embarrassing home loss to DePaul, a team that typically serves as the conference’s doormat. The Friars’ weaknesses align perfectly with Butler’s strengths: Providence fails to force turnovers, struggles to attack the rim effectively, and provides inadequate defense along the three point line. Butler’s high free throw rate and efficient three point shooting should create significant advantages throughout this contest, making multiple possessions of separation more likely. Lay the points with the Bulldogs to advance to Thursday’s challenge against St. John’s.
