Welcome back to Daily Best Bets, where I give you my favorite plays and futures throughout the season. As always, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
We are currently 47-39-1 and +$80 on the season after both big plays got home yesterday. My best day of the tournament so far! Today I have again picked two of my biggest bets of the day for $25 bets.
Let’s get to it.
7 St. Mary’s vs. 2 Alabama, 6:10 p.m., TNT
Line: Alabama -5.5, Over/Under: 149.5
The Pick: $25 on Alabama -5.5 (-110)
The clash of contrasting styles in this Second Round matchup could ignite fireworks as Alabama’s nation-leading tempo collides with Saint Mary’s glacial pace in what feels like basketball’s version of fire meeting ice on the biggest stage. The Crimson Tide’s free-flowing offense, ranked 29th in spacing and 44th in three-point frequency, should test the Gaels’ disciplined defense that excels at limiting three-point attempts and controlling the glass. Saint Mary’s offense thrives through elite offensive rebounding and smart passing, but their reluctance to shoot threes could prove key against an Alabama defense that normally bleeds points from beyond the arc as opponents attempt to keep up. This matchup epitomizes March Madness’s beauty — a battle between Alabama’s explosive, turnover-averse offense and Saint Mary’s methodical, grinding approach backed by elite rebounding — but the Tide’s ability to space the floor and push tempo should ultimately overcome the Gaels’ attempts to slow the game to a crawl. Lay the points with Alabama as their offensive firepower creates enough separation to cover this line in a tournament game where style supremacy will determine who advances to the Sweet Sixteen.
6 Mississippi vs. 3 Iowa State , 7:45 p.m. truTV
Line: Iowa State -5.5, Over/Under: N/A
The Pick: $25 on Iowa State -5.5 (-110)
The Cyclones’ path to the Sweet Sixteen runs straight through a Mississippi team whose statistical profile reads like a gift-wrapped present for Iowa State’s strengths in this high stakes second-round clash. Iowa State ranks 11th nationally in forcing turnovers, creating a potential March nightmare for Mississippi despite their third-ranked ball security — something has to give, and tournament pressure tends to expose even the most reliable handlers. The Rebels’ 47th-ranked midrange frequency and alarming 294th ranking in rim attacks plays directly into the Cyclones’ aggressive defensive scheme, while Mississippi’s 312th ranking in three-point defense presents a tantalizing opportunity for Iowa State’s 71st-ranked efficient long range attack. Most critically, the Cyclones’ 32nd-ranked efficiency at the rim and 44th-ranked free throw rate should overwhelm a Mississippi team that struggles mightily on the offensive glass and can’t afford to give up the extra possessions. When the buzzer sounds in this second-round thriller, Iowa State’s balanced offensive attack and disruptive defense should push them comfortably past the spread and into the tournament’s second weekend.
