Welcome to Bubble Watch

Welcome to the latest edition of the Hoops HQ Bubble Watch. We’ve reached the month of February which means football is coming to an end and everyone’s attention will soon be turned to the NCAA Tournament. We are getting close to the best time of the year and you can really feel the tension in nearly every game with so much at stake, especially every game involving a bubble team. It’s time for teams to start separating themselves from the rest of the pack. You have to give the selection committee a good reason to put your team in the field. Wins matter. Losses matter. Metrics matter. Don’t give the committee a reason to leave your team out.

I love college basketball because every game has meaning. Teams are going to have off-nights, but there will be a price to pay. Others will look like gangbusters for a stretch and may improve multiple seed-lines. All that truly matters is where a team ends up on Selection Sunday, but every true fan will tell you they want to know where their team stands on any given day. And that’s where I come in. A dream of mine was to be part of an NCAA Tournament team, but since that did not happen, I’ve decided to live vicariously through everyone else vying for a bid. So, let’s take a look at today’s bubble picture.

I’ve broken the Bubble down into four categories:

“Invitations Sent” are teams that are all but 100 percent assured of receiving an at-large bid should they need one.

“Invitations Printed” are teams that are safely in the field, but still have work to do in order to secure an at-large bid.

“On the List…for Now” are teams that are in the clear at the moment, but could fall out due to a couple of bad losses.

“The Uninvited” are teams that would be unlikely to receive an at-large bid if the tournament field were selected today.

Before continuing, it’s important to note the following:

Result-Based Metrics (SOR, KPI, WAB): these metrics are used to determine inclusion into the field
Predictive Metrics (BPI, Ken Pom, Torvik): these metrics play a role in the seeding of teams

Regarding the NET Quadrants, a Quad 1 game meets one of the following criteria:

A home game against an opponent ranked 1-30 in the NET
A neutral court game against an opponent ranked 1-50
An away game against an opponent ranked 1-75

First, here’s a real-time look at my cut line:

Last Four Teams In

1.
Texas
2.
Vanderbilt
3.
Wake Forest
4.
Arkansas

First Four Teams Out

1.
BYU
2.
Xavier
3.
SMU
4.
UCF

ACC

Invitations Sent: Duke (No. 1 seed)

Invitations Printed: Louisville (8)

On the List…for Now: Clemson (9), Wake Forest (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: SMU (First 4 Out), Pitt (Next 4 Out), North Carolina (Next 4 Out), Stanford

Incomprehensible. There’s really no other way to put it. I mentioned last week that Pitt already had a suspect resume, but now it’s turning into a resume the Panthers may not be able to recover from. Pitt was one of the last teams in my field with a seemingly “gimme game” against Virginia on Monday night, a team ranked No. 134 in the NET at the time. A 73-57 Quad 3 loss to the Cavaliers knocked the Panthers out of the field for now and, quite possibly, for good.
After Pitt lost to Virginia, the team that replaced the Panthers was fellow ACC squad Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons own the No. 29 SOR and No. 33 WAB (wins above bubble) which is in line for a team that is directly in the mix for a bid. That being said, Wake is just 1-6 vs Q1 opponents with only one win over the current at-large field (Michigan). On the positive side, it’s now a strong 11-6 against Q1-Q3 opponents which is a stat the selection committee definitely pays attention to. Wake Forest picked up a nice Q2 win at Stanford on Wednesday night and would be wise to follow that up with another win at Cal on Saturday to keep the momentum going. The margin of error is very slim for ACC bubble teams.
I’m not really sure what to make of SMU. It owns solid metrics across the board (SOR: 40, BPI: 45), but is yet to pick up a win over a team that should be in the field. So, clearly, this team still has lots of work to do, but because the current bubble is so weak, the Mustangs continue to hang around. Also, oddly, with nine games remaining in the regular season, SMU only has one opportunity (Clemson) against a team that will likely receive an at-large bid. Big week lies ahead next week as it gets home matchups against Pitt and Wake Forest.
The problem with playing in the ACC this season is that there are so many opportunities to hurt your resume. That’s what happened to Clemson on Tuesday night as it added a Q3 loss at the hands of Georgia Tech in triple overtime. This was the Tigers first bad loss of the season, but their seed continues to slip as a result. Clemson is a very solid 7-4 against Q1/Q2 opponents, but only owns two wins over the field (Kentucky, Wake Forest). Huge couple games on tap as Clemson gets to host Duke (Saturday) and North Carolina (Monday). With a win over Duke, the Tigers will start to feel very good about their chances of receiving a bid.

Big East

Invitations Sent: Marquette (3)

Invitations Printed: St. John’s (4), UConn (7), Creighton (7)

On the List…for Now: None

The Uninvited: Xavier (First 4 Out), Villanova

St. John’s had one heck of a week. The one thing lacking on its resume heading into the week were quality wins. Well, apparently the Red Storm just needed the opportunities. After beating Marquette on Tuesday and then winning at UConn on Friday night, the Red Storm find themselves as a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Who did St. John’s replace as the final No. 4 seed? Kentucky, of course!
UConn had seemingly righted the ship by winning three of four games, but then dropped its highly anticipated home game to St. John’s on Friday night. The Huskies are currently a projected No. 7 seed and are still in good shape of making the NCAA Tournament, but in order for them to dramatically improve their seed, they’re going to need to knock off Creighton and/or St. John’s on the road as those are the only two significant opportunities that remain.
Creighton is one of the hottest teams in the country as its reeled off eight consecutive wins. That sounds more impressive than it actually is as only one of those eight wins (at UConn) came against a team in the current field. With that being said, we will find out how good this team is with its upcoming three game slate: Marquette, UConn and at St. John’s. It feels as if the Blue Jays have been stuck on that 7/8/9 seed line for quite some time, but this is the stretch where they can finally start to improve their seeding.
Xavier continues to make a push for a spot in the field. The Musketeers defeated Georgetown on Tuesday night to avoid the dreaded Q3 loss. A major weakness on Xavier’s resume is its record away from home (3-7). It has a chance to improve that record on Sunday at Villanova. While Nova isn’t in the at-large conversation, a win would still be a Q1, as the Wildcats are No. 57 in the NET.

Big Ten

Invitations Sent: Purdue (2), Michigan State (4), Wisconsin (4)

Invitations Printed: Oregon (5), Michigan (5), UCLA (6), Illinois (6), Maryland (7)

On the List…for Now: Ohio State (9), Nebraska (10)

The Uninvited: USC (Next 4 Out), Indiana, Northwestern, Rutgers

After four consecutive losses, UCLA has responded with six straight wins. The Bruins added a nice victory over Michigan State on Tuesday and are now 6-6 vs Q1 opponents. I currently have UCLA as a No. 6 seed, but it’s clearly a team that is trending up. The Bruins win streak put their at-large hopes in excellent position. I believe this team still has the potential for a top 4-seed.
Ohio State notched a Q1 win on Thursday night against Maryland, and is up to a No. 9 seed in the field. The Buckeyes have been playing much better basketball of late and now have five Q1 wins on its resume. I do believe this team gets to the tourney if it takes care of business at home the rest of the way. Ohio State’s remaining home games feature Washington, Michigan, Northwestern and Nebraska. Needless to say, it’s very manageable. Ohio State needs to add quantity, not necessarily quality to its resume as its win at Purdue continues to hold a ton of weight.
Nebraska had one of the best wins last weekend for any bubble team as it beat Oregon on the road 77-71. This was such a big win for the Cornhuskers resume as they improved to 4-6 vs Q1 opponents with wins over Illinois, UCLA, at Creighton, and of course, at Oregon. What an extremely impressive array of victories for a team sitting on the bubble! They followed up that win by also winning at Washington. Even though Washington is at the bottom of the Big Ten, this is still a Q2 win which certainly helps. Nebraska has one of the more manageable Big Ten schedules remaining. If the Cornhuskers are able to get to nine Big Ten wins (currently 5-7), they’ll be playing in the NCAA Tournament.
USC has crept into the bubble picture over the course of the last three weeks after picking up key wins at Illinois, at Nebraska and home against Michigan State. The Trojans lost a tough one at Northwestern on Tuesday evening and then fell at Purdue on Friday, but also didn’t have leading scorer Desmond Claude in either contest. A tough Big Ten schedule awaits as they still have to go on the road to play Maryland, Oregon and UCLA. Winning even just one of these three games could have a dramatic impact on USC’s tourney chances.
Indiana continues to fade into oblivion. The Hoosiers were steamrolled at Wisconsin on Tuesday night to drop to 2-9 vs Q1 opponents. They only have one victory over a team in my field (at Ohio State) and have lost six of the last seven games. The door isn’t completely shut as Indiana has plenty of opportunities left on its schedule, but its chances of realistically getting into the NCAA Tournament are getting slimmer by the day.

Big 12

Invitations Sent: Houston (2), Iowa State (3), Kansas (3), Texas Tech (3)

Invitations Printed: Arizona (4)

On the List…for Now: West Virginia (9), Baylor (9)

The Uninvited: BYU (First 4 Out), UCF (First 4 Out), Arizona State (Next 4 Out), Kansas State

West Virginia has one interesting resume. Take a look at this collection of wins: at Kansas, Gonzaga (n), Arizona (n) and Iowa State. Top tier wins for sure. The problem is the losses are beginning to pile up, Tucker DeVries (14.9 ppg) is out for the season and it’s just 6-8 vs Q1/Q2 opponents. All the Mountaineers need to do is beat the teams they are supposed to beat the rest of the way and they won’t have to sweat it out on Selection Sunday. Easier said than done though.
BYU inched closer after getting a nice win at UCF last weekend. Unfortunately, it followed that up with a home loss to Arizona. Not a bad loss by any means, but the Cougars need to beef up its somewhat weak profile with quality wins. A big concern about BYU’s resume is the fact that it has the No. 345 non-conference SOS. This team needs to separate itself from other bubble teams because history has shown that the selection committee won’t be too kind to a team that didn’t go out and schedule tough.
UCF dropped five of its last six contests and now finds itself on the outside of the field looking in. The Knights are a brutal 4-9 against Q1/Q2 opponents which is easily the worst record of any bubble team at the moment. What’s keeping them afloat are their 48.5 result-based metrics and the fact that their win at Texas Tech continues to shine brightly, especially after the Red Raiders knocked off Houston in Houston.
Arizona State was in my Last Four In last week, but losses to Arizona on Saturday and then Kansas State at home on Tuesday night have taken them out of contention for the moment. The Sun Devils have lost seven of nine games and are just 3-8 in Big 12 play. The loss to Kansas State was a Q3 loss. It’s all beginning to unravel and now Arizona State heads on the road to face Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Clearly, this team is heading in the wrong direction.
Kansas State has been one of the more disappointing teams all season. However, after winning four in a row including wins at Iowa State and at Arizona State, the Wildcats find themselves on the outskirts of the bubble. If they are able to beat Kansas (Saturday) AND Arizona (Tuesday), we will have to consider them to be right in the thick of the bubble race.

SEC

Invitations Sent: Auburn (1), Alabama (1), Tennessee (1), Florida (2), Texas A&M (2)

Invitations Printed: Kentucky (5), Ole Miss (5), Missouri (6)

On the List…for Now: Mississippi State (8), Oklahoma (8), Georgia (10), Texas (Last 4 In), Vanderbilt (Last 4 In), Arkansas (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: None

Yes, the SEC currently has 14 teams in the field. Which is insane. However, Texas, Vanderbilt and Arkansas are all in my Last 4 In. Throw in Georgia, which is a slight notch above as a No. 10 seed, and you have four squads that are all teetering on the bubble. The SEC won’t end up with 14 teams in the field come Selection Sunday, but this is where it stands today thanks to Arkansas’ recent resurgence.
Mississippi State lost three of its last four and five of seven. Its projected seed in the NCAA Tournament has dropped from a 4-seed all the way to a 7-seed in that span. I’m not panicking just yet if I’m the Bulldogs, but my eyebrows are beginning to raise. Mississippi State is 4-5 against Q1 with a signature win at Memphis and has the No. 26 SOR. The Bulldogs head to Georgia on Saturday in a matchup involving two teams that are fairly desperate for a win.
After losing at home to Arkansas on Wednesday, Texas is suddenly back to having its bid being in question. The Longhorns are only 7-8 vs Q1-Q3 opponents and it’s never a good idea to be under .500 in that category unless you have some monster wins. Texas has good wins, but none that have the “wow” factor. A massive game is on deck at Vanderbilt on Saturday. A battle between two teams fighting to remain in the field, with the loser likely being on the outside looking in for the time being.
Georgia is losers of five of its last seven games and while none of those losses are deemed “bad,” the Bulldogs are in danger of losing its spot in the field. The best win of the season on Georgia’s resume is a win over St. John’s in the Bahamas. Quality win for sure, but if Georgia plans on playing in the NCAA Tournament, it’s going to need to start winning games again. It entered the day today as one of the Last 4 Byes In the field. Georgia is about to hit a brutal stretch in its schedule as it gets Mississippi State, at Texas A&M, Missouri, at Auburn, Florida and at Texas. Yes it’s extremely challenging, but it’s also just life in the SEC!
It appeared as if all hope was lost for Arkansas after starting 1-6 in SEC play, but John Calipari’s return to Lexington may have jump started the Razorbacks into turning around its season. Arkansas went to Kentucky last Saturday and picked up an outstanding 89-79 win in what will surely be a game Calipari never forgets. The Razorbacks then headed to Austin and beat Texas. No team had a better week. So, do two wins like that actually get Arkansas back in the mix for an at-large bid? The answer is a resounding yes. The Razorbacks have the No. 46 strength-of-record with a ton of opportunities remaining in a loaded SEC. Arkansas is back in the field as my last team in thanks to three Q1A wins. Winning away from home over quality opponents is valued a great deal by the selection committee.

OTHER CANDIDATES

Invitations Sent: None

Invitations Printed: Memphis (6)

On the List…for Now: St. Mary’s (7), Utah State (8), Gonzaga (10), San Diego State (10), New Mexico (10)

The Uninvited: Drake, VCU, Dayton, UC San Diego, San Francisco, North Texas, UC Irvine, Boise State, McNeese, Oregon State, Santa Clara

Utah State survived a scare at Wyoming on Tuesday night. A loss would have been a Quad 3 loss which is never a good thing. The Aggies still maintain a quality resume as its 2-0 vs Q1 opponents and 7-3 vs Q1/Q2 combined. The only team in the at-large field that has matched Utah State’s record away from home (11-1) is Auburn. That has to be one of the more impressive facets of the Aggies resume. Utah State is holding steady as a No. 9 seed.
Gonzaga continues to play with fire. The Zags missed out on another opportunity last Saturday at St. Mary’s and have now lost three of its last six games. Only one opportunity remains on the schedule against an at-large contender (St. Mary’s), so it’s going to be paramount that they don’t pick up a Q3 or Q4 loss down the stretch.
New Mexico has been on an absolute tear after winning 11 of its last 12 games. The Lobos added an outstanding win at Utah State last weekend to improve to 8-2 against Q1/Q2 opponents. That’s a heck of a record in that category. The only thing keeping the Lobos from really rising up in seed is the fact that they have a Q3 AND a Q4 loss on their resume. Air Force (NET ranking No. 306), Wyoming (NET ranking No. 166) and UNLV (NET ranking No. 111) are the only Q3/Q4 games left on New Mexico’s schedule. Avoid losses to those teams and it’ll be in good shape for a bid.