As Selection Sunday and March Madness creeps closer, futures markets are tightening — but there’s still blood in the water for bettors willing to zig where others zag. Last week, we played Houston’s title odds and two mid-major darlings to make the final weekend. The latter of which has already seen some solid movement. This time, we’re targeting three Final Four long shots with analytics-backed resumes, efficient play-styles and shot profiles that are most likely to see some regression. Let’s keep building that March war chest with disciplined, high-upside bets. Once again, I’ve got a budget of $50 to play with this week.
BYU to Make the Final Four
BYU’s 36-to-1 Final Four odds feel like a glitch. This is the profile you want for a March Madness bet. The Cougars are an advanced analytics darling, ranking top-20 nationally in rim efficiency, offensive rebounding and assist rate. They launch the 19th-most threes in the country while limiting opponents’ rim attempts (24th-fewest allowed). It’s almost like a cheap, under-the-radar Alabama lite.
Yes, the Cougars’ three-point defense is a glaring weakness (bottom-100 in open three-rate allowed). But BYU’s formula — crash the glass, attack the rim intelligently and then fire away from deep — is built to survive March’s volatility. Their recent home loss to Arizona, a game ShotQuality‘s expected scores graded as a BYU win, is a classic buy-low signal. In the Big 12 gauntlet, records lie — this is a battle-tested group with real potential to out-perform their price. Don’t be surprised if they look stronger at the rim once they get into the NCAA Tournament.
The pick: $20 on BYU to Make Final Four (+3600 @ FanDuel)
Mississippi State to Make the Final Four
The Bulldogs are criminally undervalued. Chris Jans’ squad runs a top-20 pick-and-roll offense, generating looks expected to be equivalent to a 50 percent two-point clip. That is elite efficiency in a half-court setting. Defensively, they’re a fortress: top-25 in rim protection and top-40 in forcing turnovers. Add in a likely positive regression wave (they’re shooting 28 percent from three in SEC play against a 34 percent expected mark), and this profile starts to look more and more like a very tough out.
Sophomore phenom Josh Hubbard is the X-factor. One of the SEC’s most electric guards, Hubbard is providing a 114 offensive rating on over 30 percent of the Bulldog’s possessions in the toughest conference in the country, per KenPom. He has the microwave scoring ability to single-handedly swing games — a critical trait for underdogs. Mississippi State’s physicality and turnover-forcing defense travel. It’s a perfect fit for tournament rock fights. At 23-to-1, this is a steakhouse-grade, March Madness prime rib at more-than-affordable pricing.
The pick: $20 on Mississippi State to Make Final Four (+2300 @ FanDuel)
Baylor to Make the Final Four
Buying Baylor feels counterintuitive. The Bears are 3-4 in their last seven games and injuries to Jeremy Roach and VJ Edgecombe have created concerns. But Scott Drew’s track record and this team’s underlying metrics suggest a turnaround is brewing.
The Bears are a top-15 offense in developing spacing and their three-point shooting (33 percent in conference) is due for positive regression. Defensively, their struggles guarding the arc are real, but Baylor’s defensive prowess should only tighten up as we barrel toward March. Edgecombe and Omier are a battery of perimeter and interior presence and Roach’s postseason pedigree (Final Four and Elite Eight at Duke) matters. At 30-to-1, we’re getting a Hall of Fame coach and a roster led by high-level talent at a discount. It’s a big ask, but the scariest bets —the ones that feel wrong — are often the ones that can have the most value.
The pick: $10 on Baylor to Make Final Four (+3000)
Final Word
March isn’t won by chasing favorites — it’s won by exploiting market overreactions. BYU’s shooting variance, Mississippi State’s stifling defense and Baylor’s wounded upside are all narratives ripe for profit. Stake accordingly, trust the diagnostics and let the madness unfold.
