Welcome back to Best Bets, where I give you my top plays for the night in college basketball. Once again, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
We are 14-9 and +$39 so far after the first few weeks here at Hoops HQ. Today, I bring you an intriguing mid-major slate of games to break down for Monday night as well as a same-game parlay for the night’s mega Big 12 clash in Lubbock. Betting lines are from the time of publication.
Let’s get started.
Texas A&M Corpus Christi at Nicholls, Monday, 7:30 p.m., FloSports
Line: Nicholls -2, Over/Under: 146.5
The Pick: $15 on Nicholls -2 (-110)
Nicholls is one of the strongest teams at defending the three-point shot in the nation. Per ShotQuality’s location based metrics, the Colonels allow the ninth lowest quality looks from behind the arc in all of Division I. They back that up with an appetite for attacking the rim that ranks within the top-30 and are adept at limiting turnovers while attacking.
The Colonels can get a bit inefficient at the rim and their weaker than average passing skills can get them into trouble when they run too many isolation possessions, but they have one of the strongest defenses in the country which can buoy their potential offensive woes.
Nicholls’ opponent does not shoot the three often and instead forces the issue at the rim with a high frequency of driving the lane. The issue is that the Islanders have been lucky for a large part of the season and are likely not as good as they might appear on paper. They are expected to be scoring less and allowing more points, which led to their home win against Nicholls to be rated as an expected loss by ShotQuality.
If Nicholls was expected to win the first meeting by five points against this over performing opponent, then, along with these other factors, it is safe to say that we should have value on this line in the rematch. Lay the points with Nicholls.
Florida A&M at Alabama A&M, Monday, 8 p.m., YouTube
Line: Florida A&M -1.5, Over/Under: 148
The Pick: $15 on Florida A&M -1.5 (+105)
Look, I know some might not want to bet teams they may have never watched before, but it’s a Monday and that means the offerings are slim. The SWAC might be the last ranked of the 30-plus options that comprise Division I per KenPom, but that does not mean it is devoid of valuable opportunities. Quite the opposite, in fact.
The Rattlers from Tallahassee, under first year coach Patrick Crarey, are currently tied for third in the conference with a winnable date with 5-9 AAMU on the docket this evening. If they take the game, they should cover the line without too much issue—Alabama A&M has 18 losses but no close losses (less than four points or OT) this season.
Florida A&M has won nine of its last 11 games, while Alabama A&M has lost nine of its last 12. These teams are going in the opposite direction and AAMU is allowing a 50.7 percent free throw attempt to field goal attempt rate in SWAC play. FAMU is an above average free throw shooting team and should take advantage of the extra chances. The Rattlers are 6-2 in conference games when that rate exceeds 35 percent.
Fade the sloppy play, sloppy rebounding and turnstile defense with the up-and-coming Rattlers squad whom the market might be slow to jump on.
UT Rio Grand Valley at McNeese, Monday, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Line: McNeese -15.5 , Over/Under: 146.5
The Pick: $15 on UTRGV +15.5 (-110)
UTRGV is a mid-major Alabama, taking 48.8 percent of its shots from three-point range this season, but it falters by failing to penetrate and thus settling for midrange jumpers where ‘Bama might successfully get shots at the rim to further spacing. You can extrapolate as to how the failure to do so creates a pressure on their shooters to hit hard shots because the Vaqueros lack the gravity and rim threat to create the fractions of an inch you need to amplify your output.
“Well that all sounds great, but you want me to bet on this team against McNeese? Will Wade’s McNeese?” That would be my exact response too, but what if I told you that UTRGV has elite shot makers and just needs to do a bit better at taking smarter looks to become a top-200 team rather than flirting with disaster outside the top-250. McNeese too, might be a bit overrated, sitting 65th in KenPom’s ranking, inflated by a few massive wins that were predicated on hot shooting rather than process. I’m not saying McNeese loses, not at all, but Wade’s Cowboys are the team in the conference with a target on their back— the king of the Southland court, if you will— and that means opponents fight hard to dethrone them. I expect this 15.5 point spread to be about three to four points too large and for the Vaqueros to fight hard to keep this respectable.
5 Houston at 9 Texas Tech, Monday, 9 p.m., ESPN
Line: Houston -1.5 -114, Over/Under: 132.5 -115
The Pick: $5 on Texas Tech ML & O132.5 (+254)
This Same Game Parlay is an advantaged shot at the marquee game on Monday night’s slate. Based on my simulations of this contest, there is a correlation between the total going beyond the 132.5 number and Texas Tech winning. They do not lose enough viability to take the inverse (Houston and Under) in a slower game, but based on my numbers, if there are more points between these two, it is likely related to the success of the Red Raiders.
