Welcome back to Best Bets, where I give you my top picks every night in college basketball. Once again, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
We are 18-12-1 and +$49 so far after last night’s sweep here at Hoops HQ. Today, I bring you an exciting trio of consequential mid-major games for Thursday night. Betting lines are from the time of publication.
Good luck and remember to bet responsibly!
Chattanooga at UNC Greensboro, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Line: UNC Greensboro -2 , Over/Under: 144
The Pick: $20 on Chattanooga +2 (-110)
Chattanooga features elite passing that generates high-quality spacing, which allows the Moccasins to attack the rim efficiently and shoot the ball from deep with remarkable consistency. They pair this offensive versatility with efficient free throw shooting and defensively they also allow the 40th fewest shots at the rim in the nation. Chattanooga is coming off a close, one-point home win over The Citadel, whom they should have dispatched easily, and now must regroup for a massive clash against UNC Greensboro in the regular season’s penultimate game. Losing to The Citadel would have spelled disaster for the Mocs, who sit just one game ahead of UNCG for first in the league standings. They were expected to win that game by well over 20 points, though, so if the market takes the close shave at face value, we’ll be able to get some real value on a very strong team. Take the slight dog to keep it close or even win outright, the latter of which would secure the No. 1 seed for the SoCon tournament.
UC San Diego at Cal State Northridge, 10 p.m., ESPN+
Line: UCSD -6.5 , Over/Under: 149.5
The Pick: $15 on CSUN +6.5 (-110)
CSUN is facing off against the top team in the Big West in UC San Diego, whose 22-4 record and top-25 ranking in KenPom’s net efficiency is impressive. Yet, we’re going to bet against the Tritons. Don’t let the buzz fool you. Northridge is also a strong team, allowing the third fewest shots at the rim in the nation while ranking as the sixth-best defensive rebounding team, per ShotQuality. The Matadors, like UCSD, move at a lightning-fast pace, force the 23rd most turnovers in the country and are not afraid to drive to the rim and force the issue. They’re smart to do that, too, because it is their most potent shot type on a per possession basis. The only issue is that they likely will let UC San Diego shoot a lot of three-point shots, which could go badly, but we are getting an inflated number against a popular mid-major team with the data indicating that these two conference foes are closer to each other than the market might think. Grab the healthy two-possession spread with the underdog at home.
North Texas at Florida Atlantic, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Line: UNT -1.5 , Over/Under: 135.4
The Pick: $15 on FAU +1.5 (-118)
This AAC clash has many implications. Florida Atlantic is 8-6 in the conference while North Texas goes on the road with a strong 11-3 record, just one game behind Memphis. There are several teams between five losses and nine losses, so any movement for FAU is consequential in this tightly packed race. FAU has struggled against the AAC’s better teams at home with losses to Memphis, UAB, and Wichita State. That said, the way the Owls play—they attack the rim at the 17th highest frequency in the country, and shoot an expected 57.5% on those attempts—deserves respect. Unfortunately, their strong offense has been held back by some weak defense, but the aforementioned recent home loss against Wichita was expected to be a 10-point win rather than a multi-possession loss, according to ShotQuality. North Texas has been over-performing on both defense and offense all season, with only one of their last four wins being expected per ShotQuality. If they were truly performing at their metrics-predicted level, they’d be closer to 14-10 on the season (not 18-6) and this line would be very different. Trust the data and take the strong FAU offense against the lucky Mean Green in this home underdog scenario.
