Welcome back to Daily Best Bets, where I give you my favorite plays and futures throughout the season. As always, I have a $50 budget to spread around however I like.
We are currently 48-40-1 and +$77 on the season after a split on Sunday’s action. Today we’ll be looking forward to the Final Four and making a couple of Futures bets.
Let’s get to it.
Michigan State to Make the Final Four
Odds: +260, Sportsbook: Bet365
Risk $25 to win $65
I think we are getting a buy low spot here on the Michigan State Spartans, who just defeated New Mexico by eight points on Sunday evening. A result that almost perfectly matched the Vegas line, depending on when and where you played. Often times, the dance teams have with covering a line can be equally as influenced by luck as winning the game, if not more so. For Michigan State, that is the case; they have scored a total of 156 points in their two March madness games. However, using ShotQuality (advanced location-based metrics which evaluate the expected points from each shot independently of if it went in or not) we can see that there was a 175 point expectancy over the two games for Tom Izzo‘s squad. That is a big difference and if we are able to get in on a team that was expected to score nearly 10 points more per game, while also expected to win that New Mexico contest by 24 points (Jase Richardson shot just one for ten on Sunday night), then it is not a stretch to think that we are getting a great price at +260. The Spartans are going up against an Ole Miss team that got a bit lucky to even be at this stage, they hit 11 of their 19 three point shots against Iowa State. It was their second best performance from deep this season. I like getting the value for Michigan State to get past Ole Miss here and then have a very good shot at beating either Auburn or Michigan.
Texas Tech to Make the Final Four
Odds: +320, Sportsbook: DraftKings
Risk $25 to win $80
Texas Tech has looked impressive. We saw what Drake and Coach Ben McCollum can do to teams that are not prepared for the Bulldogs’ style of play. What happened to Missouri did not happen to Texas Tech because they are that much more efficient shooting and defending, even when presented with such a unique challenge as Drake. Not only did they win, they covered the spread by more than a full possession. How much more do you need to see from a team than one of the toughest tests in college basketball? A team that made Vegas’s line on Missouri look foolish… TTU beat the over correction still. On top of that Texas Tech was expected to beat their first round matchup, UNC Wilmington, by a score of 99 to 76 instead producing a lower total of just 82 points. This is one of the most explosive shooting offenses in the country and they take smart shots at the rim. It is hard to beat their spacing, shot making and passing ability. They also limit opponents from taking smart shots by forcing the fourth most mid range shots in Division I. This is a beautiful analytical profile that has yet to awaken into its full potential, and there is still time to buy in. They should be able to beat an Arkansas team that got past an ice cold St. John’s team by just three possessions and then contend with whoever they meet in the Elite Eight. This is a solid value considering how strong this team is.
