A new week brings new No. 1 seeds. Michigan dropped from the ranks of being a No. 1 seed after losing at home to Wisconsin. My new No. 1 seeds are Arizona, Iowa State, Duke and UConn with Michigan and Nebraska knocking on the door. There are so many teams at the top of the bracket with strong resumes and they will only get stronger as the season progresses. An unbelievably competitive NCAA Tournament is on tap.
The Big East had a nice week with St. John’s going on the road to win at Butler and at Creighton, while Creighton picked up an important road win at Villanova to get back into the bubble picture. I do think ultimately that this conference ends up getting four bids (with a chance at five), but it certainly is a far cry from the good old Big East days when it received as many as 11 teams.
A new team that entered the field this week is NC State. The Wolfpack didn’t add any significant wins this week, but they did beat Florida State on the road by a score of 113-69. That score matters because it helps improve their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers, which in turn helps their overall metrics. They now have top 50 resume-based metrics across the board and top 30 predictive metrics. Aside from having solid metrics for a bubble team, NC State also remains undefeated against Q2, Q3 and Q4 opponents.
Here are a few thoughts regarding today’s bracket:
- There’s been no better story in college basketball than Nebraska. The Cornhuskers went into Bloomington on Saturday to defeat the Hoosiers 83-77 after trailing by as many as 16 points in the second half. They are now 16-0 on the season, own the No. 1 WAB ranking and the No. 2 strength-of-record. I have Nebraska as a No. 2 seed right now and the only reason it’s not a No. 1 is due to having predictive metrics that average out to about 20.0.
- Michigan had been one of the most impressive teams all season by the way it had been thumping its opponents. However, in the last week the Wolverines barely squeaked one out against Penn State and then lost at home to Wisconsin. As a result, Michigan is now a No. 2 seed due to the fact that the No. 1 seed line is so strong. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is now in the field as a No. 10 seed since it now holds the best win of any team in the country.
- Clemson had a nice week as it beat SMU at home and won on the road at Notre Dame. While the Tigers don’t have the most impressive collection of wins, they are 4-2 versus Q1 opponents and 7-2 against Q1 and Q2 opponents combined. The seven wins is a strong number as the only teams with more are Arizona, Iowa State, Duke, UConn, Michigan, Vanderbilt and Nebraska. Clemson is a No. 5 seed in my latest bracket.
- St. John’s is back in the field after winning at Butler and at Creighton. Butler and Creighton aren’t in the current field, but the Red Storm needed to make any statement after losing at home to Providence. These are still quality wins over bubble teams that boosted their resume enough to get them back in.
- Missouri completely revamped its resume over the course of the last week or so. On December 22nd, the Tigers lost 91-48 to Illinois. Perhaps that was rock bottom. Since then, they’ve accumulated wins over Florida and on the road at Kentucky. As a result, Missouri goes from being irrelevant for an at-large bid to suddenly squarely on the bubble. This just goes to show you how quickly things can change for a high-major program in college basketball. Unfortunately, the Tigers momentum came to a screeching halt after losing at Mississippi State on Saturday.
- UConn trailed by 11 points with under three minutes remaining at Providence, but managed to claw its way back in the game and win in overtime. Would a loss at Providence be the end of the world? No, but when it comes to potentially getting a No. 1 seed it was. A loss to the Friars would have knocked the Huskies off the top seed line, but they were able to avoid a blip on what has been a very strong resume thus far.
- I feel like I talk about Kentucky every week, but every week is a new adventure with this team. The Wildcats had seemed to right the ship a couple weeks ago when they beat St. John’s and Indiana, but they lost all that momentum on Wednesday evening when they dropped a home contest to Missouri. Will the real Kentucky please stand up?
- St. Louis had arguably its toughest remaining game on Wednesday at VCU and came away with a pretty convincing 71-62 victory. The Billikens not only have the potential to be an at-large bid, but if they continue to win with relative ease, they will also be rewarded with a very good seed as well.
Last 4 Byes
Auburn, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech
Last 4 In
Oklahoma State, Stanford, Missouri, NC State
First 4 Out
New Mexico, Kentucky, Indiana, TCU
Next 4 Out
California, LSU, Creighton, UCLA
Bracketology
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks
Merrimack Warriors
NC State Wolfpack
Missouri Tigers
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
UMass-Lowell River Hawks
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Stanford Cardinal
Iowa State Cyclones
Long Island Sharks
Saint Mary's Gaels
USC Trojans
Clemson Tigers
Murray State Racers
Illinois Fighting Illini
Utah Valley Wolverines
Kansas Jayhawks
NC State Wolfpack
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Missouri Tigers
Michigan State Spartans
North Dakota State Bison
Georgia Bulldogs
Virginia Tech Hokies
Michigan Wolverines
Nicholls Colonels
Duke Blue Devils
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
UCF Knights
Ohio State Buckeyes
Alabama Crimson Tide
High Point Panthers
Virginia Cavaliers
UC Irvine Anteaters
Arkansas Razorbacks
Miami Ohio Red Hawks
Houston Cougars
Portland State Vikings
Seton Hall Pirates
Wisconsin Badgers
Vanderbilt Commodores
Navy Midshipmen
Arizona Wildcats
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks
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Merrimack Warriors
Iowa Hawkeyes
St. John's Red Storm
Florida Gators
Yale Bulldogs
North Carolina Tar Heels
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Tennessee Volunteers
George Mason Patriots
BYU Cougars
Wright State Raiders
Utah State Aggies
Texas A&M Aggies
Purdue Boilermakers
UT Martin Skyhawks
UConn Huskies
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
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UMass-Lowell River Hawks
Miami Hurricanes
Saint Louis Billikens
Louisville Cardinals
Liberty Flames
Texas Tech Red Raiders
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Villanova Wildcats
Stanford Cardinal
/
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Austin Peay Governors
SMU Mustangs
Auburn Tigers
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Tulane Green Wave
Bids by Conference
| Conference | No. of Bids |
|---|---|
| ACC | 10 |
| SEC | 9 |
| Big Ten | 9 |
| Big 12 | 8 |
| Big East | 4 |
| WCC | 2 |
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