Seth Davis’ Best Future Bets for the 2026-27 Season

Illinois to win national championship (+1400 FanDuel)

Here’s a fun question: If I gave you a choice between Florida and Duke or the field for the championship, which would you take? Personally, I would take the field. The NCAA Tournament is quirky, and I’m not convinced that those two are as far ahead of the pack as the early conventional wisdom is indicating.

Should one of them falter, I think the Illini are in great position to benefit. They are the No. 4 favorite to win the title at FanDuel, which is right in line with their preseason rankings at KenPom (No. 4) and BartTorvik (No. 7).

This team is a little banged up right now as its two best players, 6-foot-9 sophomore forward David Mirkovic and 6-foot-7 sophomore guard Andrej Stojakovic, are hobbled by injuries. Mirkovic is going to be out another few weeks as he recovers from a foot injury, and Stojakovic did not play in the Wednesday’s exhibition win over UIC after taking a hard fall late in the exhibition loss to Baylor. Senior forward Zvonimir Ivisic also sat out that exhibition, but he won’t be out long.

The Illini return three starters and two more rotation players from their first Final Four team in 21 years, and they added two outstanding pieces in 6-foot-4 freshman guard Quentin Coleman and 6-foot-7 sophomore guard Stefan Vaaks, who averaged 15.8 points per game as a freshman at Providence. They are clearly one of the top teams in the country, and if they can stay healthy they’ll very likely end their season in Detroit. 

Houston to win national championship (+3000 Fan Duel)

Houston lost some good players, again. They’re going to be really good, again. To the extent we can rely on exhibitions, the Cougars demonstrated as much by dominating Michigan 83-66. Senior point guard Dedan Thomas Jr., a transfer from LSU, had 25 points and 7 assists in the win, indicating that maybe Houston won’t miss Kingston Flemings as much as many feared.

Houston is No. 10 in the AP Top 25 preseason rankings, but it is No. 3 on KenPom and No. 6 on BartTorvik. Yet the Cougars are right around No. 14 in the betting markets to win the title. The Cougars are also +1800 to win the championship on BetRivers, so a play here on FanDuel has even more value.

Virginia to win ACC (+625 Caesars)

Duke is the obvious favorite, so the best strategy is to look elsewhere. It’s a close call between Louisville and Virginia, but it’s interesting that BartTorvik has the Cavs at No. 5 nationally in his preseason rankings. (The Cardinals are No. 9). They’re No. 15 at KenPom, which is still two spots ahead of Louisville. I’m wondering if the fact that Virginia is one of the few power conference programs that did not have a single player transfer out gives it some added weight in the analytics rankings.

Duke may be well out in front for now but Virginia has the ACC’s preseason choice for Player of the Year in 6-foot-9 sophomore forward Thijs De Ridder, and sophomore point guard Chance Mallory is going to be a breakout player. Virginia lost its first exhibition to Vanderbilt (that was the weird outdoor court game), but it dominated Richmond and Villanova in the next two. This team is also +3500 on Bet365 and DraftKings to win the national championship. Might want to keep an eye on those as well. 

Baylor to win Big 12 (+3100 on Caesars)

If you’re not overreacting to exhibition games, you’re not doing it right. The Bears were picked 10^th by the Big 12 coaches in the league’s preseason poll, but they were the revelation of exhibition season as they squeaked by two Final Four favorites in Florida and Illinois. Yes, the Gators shot 4 for 29 from three and the Illini were without Mirkovic, but there’s no question Baylor looked a lot better than many anticipated.

Arizona, Kansas and Houston seem to be forming a clear top tier in the Big 12 (the Jayhawks’ position depends heavily on whether their three fifth-year seniors can stay eligible), but I’m not sure there’s a ton of separation between the favorites and the next tier. It’s also notable that while Baylor is +3100 on DraftKings it is +1600 on Caesars. You might want to jump on this one before that gap closes.

Texas to win SEC (+850 DraftKings)

I actually think there’s a pretty big dropoff between Florida and the rest of the league. The odds reflect that, which is why “Not Florida” is the best play here. Which team should claim that mantle? BartTorvik says Tennessee, and KenPom says Alabama. But both rank the Longhorns as the No. 3 favorite in the SEC. 

Frankly, it’s hard to have a ton of confidence in any team that will rely so heavily on transfers and freshmen. (Junior center Matas Vokietaitis is the Longhorns’ only returnee from last season.) But Sean Miller is a proven coach, and the talent in Austin is unquestionable. The X factor for Texas is how quickly freshman Marcus Spears Jr. can get up to speed. Because he reclassified in high school, Spears is too young to enter the 2027 NBA Draft, but he is a consensus projected top-five pick in the 2028 draft. And keep in mind that the SEC regular season doesn’t begin until January, which means Miller has two months to get all these newcomers to gel. 

Nebraska to make Final Four (+2800 Bet365)

Nebraska is ranked No. 15 in BartTorvik’s preseason rankings and is No. 16 on KenPom. Yet, according to Action Network, the Cornhuskers are No. 32 to make the Final Four. That’s a significant discrepancy, which I believe owes to Nebraska’s lagging basketball brand, despite last year’s storybook run to the Sweet Sixteen.

The Huskers lost some significant pieces, but they are returning their leading scorer, senior guard Pryce Sandford, and 6-foot-7 sophomore guard Braden Frager is poised for a breakout season. Those two are going to form one of the highest-scoring duos in the country. Fred Hoiberg signed six value players in the transfer portal and brought in two top-150 freshmen. If the Huskers can stay healthy, maybe they have a deep run in them, but what’s clear right now is that the computers have them way ahead of the oddsmakers. And the computers are usually right.

Marquette to win Big East (+630 DraftKings)

UConn (+136) and St. John’s (+260) are the favorites, but the Golden Eagles are the smart bet. Shaka Smart finally dipped back into the transfer portal after staying away from it the last few years. That strategy worked as long as it worked, but after the Golden Eagles finished in a tie for seventh in the conference last season, Smart made the logical pivot by bringing in 6-foot-11 senior forward Sananda Fru from Louisville, 6-foot-5 junior guard Nolan Minessale from St. Thomas and 5-foot-10 senior guard Colin Porter from Liberty.

The biggest reason to like Marquette as a potential Big East champ is 6-foot sophomore guard Nigel James Jr., who averaged 16.4 points and 4.9 assists last season while being named the Big East’s newcomer of the year. The return of two other productive veterans, 6-foot-9 junior forward Royce Parham and 6-foot-4 sophomore guard Adrien Stevens, means Marquette won’t have to overly rely on the imports. 

Santa Clara to win WCC (+180 on Caesars)

This is the WCC’s first season without perennial juggernaut Gonzaga, which has left for the newfangled Pac-12, so the race for league supremacy should be more wide open than ever. The oddsmakers have installed Saint Mary’s as the slight favorite (+150), but the people who know better, the league’s coaches, believe otherwise. Herb Sendek’s Broncos got nine out of ten first-place votes in that preseason poll. Santa Clara has had a good bit of roster turnover from last season, when it made the NCAA Tournament and came with an Otega Oweh halfcourt heave from knocking off Kentucky. But Sendek has lost good players in the past, yet he has kept this train rolling.

Saint Mary’s had an even bigger change as coach Randy Bennett left for Arizona State. Bennett handed the reins to Mickey McConnell, who played for Bennett and has been an assistant there the last seven years, so from a leadership standpoint there should be continuity. But there was also a huge talent drain as one senior graduated and eight players transferred. 

Saint Louis to win Atlantic-10 (+225 BetRivers)

Most betting sites have it pretty close between Saint Louis and VCU to win the A-10. The analytics sites are likewise split on the question — KenPom ranks Saint Louis No. 1 in the league, while BartTorvik has VCU at the top — but there is a very large, bespectacled X-factor in this question. That is the status of Cream Abdul-Jabbar himself, Robbie Avila. Saint Louis’ cult-hero forward became eligible via a temporary restraining order last week. He has an injunction hearing coming up on Nov. 4. , Billikens coach Josh Schertz has said he will not play Avila in the team’s season opener. If Avila gets cleared, the Billikens’ chances of winning the league will go up drastically, so if you’re inclined to make this play, do it soon.

Tyran Stokes to win Naismith Award (+1700 on Caesars)

There are a lot of really good players in college basketball this season, but there is no obvious “best” one. Most NBA Draft peg Kansas’ star freshman as the likely choice to go number one overall. Yet, the betting markets have Stokes pegged as the fourth-most likely to win the Naismith, and the second-most likely to win the Wooden Award.

The reason to really like Stokes’ chances here is that the Jayhawks will heavily rely on him to produce. That will be especially true if some or all of the Jayhawks’ three fifth-year seniors are not eligible all season. 

No doubt Stokes will have his ups and downs as all freshmen do, but he showed what he is capable of when he went for 27 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists in Kansas’ 90-84 exhibition loss to Duke. Player of the Year voters (including me) tend to have a recency bias, so if Stokes puts up big numbers and closes well, it’s not hard to envision him walking away with the hardware.