In our previous edition of “Tristan’s Top Ten,” we showed how the massive, constant roster changes via the transfer portal have enabled teams to change their fortunes faster than ever. However, it can go both ways. Teams could “bounce back” after a rough season, but they can also take a step back if the new group doesn’t mesh as well.
Among the top conferences in college basketball, 10 teams had won six or fewer games compared to the season prior. Here’s a look at the biggest win differentials from the past two seasons.
- Maryland (-15)
- Oregon (-13)
- Memphis (-12)
- Marquette (-11)
- Creighton (-9)
- Ole Miss (-9)
- Xavier (-7)
The fact that the Big East had three of the biggest “step back” teams among the high-majors explains why the league suffered as a whole. That means the conference won’t have any real candidates most likely to take a step back for the 2026-27 campaign.
But who will? Here’s a look at the teams to watch. To qualify, they had to be one of the top 10 consensus leagues and win at least 20 total games in the prior season.
1. California Bears
2025-26 record: 22-12 (9-9 ACC)
The Bears overachieved last season thanks to successful transfer pickups, with four players averaging 13.8 or more points per game. All of them are gone, and the incoming portal class leaves a lot to be desired on paper. Their top scorer looks to be 6-foot-3 sophomore guard Michael Cooper, who averaged 13.4 points at Wright State. Coach Mark Madsen has done a good job overall at Cal, but barring some unexpected breakout production, there’s a good chance they’re going to take a fall down the ACC standings.
2. UCF Knights
2025-26 record: 21-12 (9-9 Big 12)
All four double-digit scorers are gone from last year’s NCAA Tournament team, leaving a new crop of projected featured players to watch. One is Dior Johnson, a 6-foot-3 senior guard who averaged just 2.9 points per game at UCF two seasons ago but is coming off a 24-point-per-game campaign at Tarleton State as its sixth man. But can the Knights be a postseason team if Johnson is their best player?
3. Stanford Cardinal
2025-26 record: 20-13 (9-9 ACC)
The loss of 6-foot-2 star freshman guard Ebuka Okorie (23.2 points per game) was a massive blow for the Cardinal, whose academic hurdles can complicate recruiting transfer portal targets. They did land 6-foot-4 sophomore guard Christian Bliss (16.7 points and 5.9 assists per game) from Delaware, but there’s little proven production from the rest of the roster. There always can be a breakout star or two from the incoming freshmen class, but Stanford looks to be a likely candidate to take a step back.
4. Wisconsin Badgers
2025-26 record: 24-11 (14-6 Big Ten)
Wisconsin lost 6-foot-3 guards Nick Boyd and John Blackwell this offseason, taking 40 points per game combined with them. Yes, they bring back the 6-foot-11 forward duo of Nolan Winter and Austin Rapp, but there remain concerns with the backcourt, with the lack of a proven lead guard at the Big Ten level. Of all the 20-plus win teams in the Big Ten last season, the Badgers are the most likely to take a step back.
5. Saint Mary’s Gaels
2025-26 record: 27-6 (16-2 WCC)
The biggest loss for the Gaels this offseason wasn’t a player but rather the coach, with Randy Bennett leaving after 25 years and 589 wins for Arizona State. As a result, several players departed, including 6-foot-8 senior forward Paulius Murauskas (18.4 points and 7.6 rebounds per game). The good news is that Saint Mary’s won’t have to deal with Gonzaga in the WCC going forward. The bad news is that they’re now closer to the middle of the pack in the league than ever.
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6. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
2025-26 record: 30-8 (13-5 American)
The Hurricanes were one of the biggest surprises in the country last season. With all four double-digit scorers gone, it’s going to be nearly impossible to replicate that. Yet the drop-off may not be massive, as Tulsa had a solid transfer class of its own, and the other American contenders (South Florida, Memphis, Florida Atlantic) all had significant roster turnover.
7. SMU Mustangs
2025-26 record: 20-14 (8-10 ACC)
All five double-digit scorers are gone from a team that arguably underachieved over the last two years, given its on-paper talent. This time around, there are some real questions as to who’ll score for the Mustangs, outside of Tulane transfer and 6-foot-4 senior guard Rowan Brumbaugh (19.2 points per game). If he struggles to translate his scoring to the ACC level, SMU could be in danger of making the postseason.
8. Ohio State Buckeyes
2025-26 record: 21-13 (12-8 Big Ten)
Ohio State has a good amount of talent on the roster, thanks to multiple double-digit scorers and two top-30 incoming freshmen prospects. However, the loss of four-year starter, all-time leading scorer, and 6-foot-2 guard Bruce Thornton (20 points per game) could prove to be massive for the program. Considering how close to the margins they already were with Thornton leading the way, there’s a real chance Ohio State struggles more than expected.
9. Utah State Aggies
2025-26 record: 29-7 (15-5 Mountain West)
The Aggies are in a similar situation to Saint Mary’s, losing their head coach this offseason. Yes, new coach Ben Jacobsen brought back Mountain West Player of the Year and 6-foot-3 senior guard Mason Falslev (16 points per game), but the move to the Pac-12 makes things harder for the program, which now has to play Gonzaga at least twice. Utah State should still be in the postseason mix, but winning close to 30 games is unlikely.
10. Purdue Boilermakers
2025-26 record: 30-9 (13-7 Big Ten)
Coach Matt Painter has always been able to replace national stars with future stars in the following years, preventing Purdue from taking any kind of step back. But that might not be the case this time, as Purdue loses 6-foot All-American and Big Ten Player of the Year guard Braden Smith. All four double-digit scorers are gone, and they added only one player via the transfer portal.
There’s a chance that the 2027-28 Boilermaker roster could be really good if they stick together. But this upcoming season could have lots of growing pains that cause them to drop in the win column next year.
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