The Hoops HQ Fast Break: NBA Draft, Dusty May, Coaching Carousel and More

There was significant movement in the portal over the weekend, specifically on Sunday, where two huge targets in the portal signed, or at least committed to, Pat Kelsey at Louisville. Flory Bidunga from Kansas and Jackson Shelstad, point guard from Oregon. He had some injury issues this past year, but is a really good player. So Bidunga and Shelstad going to Louisville and then Stefan Vaaks going to Illinois. 

Andy, let’s start with Bidunga and Shelstad. How significant do you think this is for Pat Kelsey heading into year three with the Louisville Cardinals?

Andy Katz: Well, what it does right off the bat is ensure that Louisville will be in that top four in the ACC because they’ve got some headline names on the perimeter and inside. I am going to pull back a little on Shelstad because yes, he was hurt this past season, but it might be wishful thinking from Kelsey and the staff that they’re getting another Big Ten point guard to deliver the way Chucky Hepburn did a year ago from Wisconsin to Louisville for Kelsey. 

I think Hepburn’s better than Shelstad and is a better defender. So, I don’t if this is me projecting: that maybe they think it’s apples to apples. I don’t see that, but we’ll have to wait and see. Will Shelstad deliver in the ACC after it going sideways at Oregon? 

I think Bidunga will fit right in. I think there’s no transition there. So I think those are quality pickups based on what is out there for Pat Kelsey.

Seth: Well, and then you look at Illinois, obviously coming off a Final Four team, losing Keaton Wagler, but they’re bringing back a lot of guys. I assume that Andrej Stojaković is going to come back. I wouldn’t be surprised if he tests the waters. 

But for them to get Stefan Vaaks, who’s a super talented freshman at Providence, how do think he fits into the Big Ten?

Andy: Well, he’s from Estonia and you know, the new world at Illinois is to go Eastern European. So he fits perfectly in that setup, you know, from the Baltic region there. So right off the bat, it’ll be a seamless transition with players and staff. And then two: Yes, he’s a big time shooter. I did a couple of Providence games this year and he was the difference in helping them win a number of games or keeping them in games. 

Then he got hurt and so he didn’t finish the season as strong. But I love this pickup for Illinois. As a player, he’s only gonna get stronger. And I do think Brad Underwood and the staff are gonna give him the green light. I love this pickup.

Seth: Yeah, I already had Illinois at No. 2 in my never-too-early preseason top 25, thought about vaulting them over Michigan State. I’m going to leave Michigan State at No. 1. I know Jeremy Fears, by the way, declared for the NBA Draft, but he’s not projected to get drafted. So for now, I am projecting that he comes back. 

I think everyone focuses on the transfer portal, Andy. But I think the far more interesting decisions are about the NBA Draft. For example, Bidunga appears on a lot of mock drafts as a first-round pick. Now, maybe a late first-round pick. No one really has him in the lottery, but it used to be, and I know you were used to thinking this way, that if a player is going in the first round, you just assume that he’s gone. That is certainly no longer the case. And there are a couple of other decisions that we’re waiting on, like Thomas Haugh at Florida and Braylon Mullins at UConn.

Both of them are surefire first-round picks but at UConn in particular, Dan Hurley has said — or it’s been reported — that he’s looking to put together $4 to $5 million for Braylon Mullins to come back. We were having this conversation with my family in the car the other night and my wife said, ‘Well, if you were Braylon Mullins’ dad, what would you advise?’ And my honest answer is, I’d advise him to go to the NBA. If you’re a first-round pick, mid-first round, you should go. But that’s a lot of money and maybe he likes college. 

So how are you watching these NBA Draft decisions?

Andy: Well, two things. One, another name that you didn’t bring up: I haven’t seen it officially yet, but I’m assuming that Tyler Tanner is gonna return to Vanderbilt because when I was covering them during the NCAA Tournament — this is very similar to Mullins, the word within the draft circles is this is obviously a loaded draft. We know that it’s gonna be dominated by a number of these high profile freshmen. And the 2027 draft is much weaker.

So players like Mullins or Tanner or some other guys, Bidunga, certainly could move up higher in the lottery. When you enter the NBA, you want to be a player who’s going to be able to contribute that first year and not get buried. Kind of like a previous UConn guy last year, Liam McNeely, who went and sort of has not seen the NBA court. He’s been in the G league.

He could be a little bit of a poster child of what not to do, because you may not be ready. And so if I were his father — and I don’t know their financial situation — but I’m a believer that you go when you are ready overall. And based on my interaction, I think Mullins needs to get stronger. He’s a little bit of an introvert. I mean, he came a little bit out of his shell. I think he could get swallowed up in the NBA just from the limited dealings I had with Braylon. I think it would serve him well for another year of just physical and mental maturity and he’ll get more money to stay one more year at UConn.

Seth: You know, that’s a great point. And I don’t know him or his family. So that is kind of an X factor. What’s your personality? Do you have that maturity? And it’s not just the physical maturity, but you hit on a very, very important piece that people need to understand. Because there’s a lot of conversation over how much somebody will make next year, right? As a rookie, versus UConn can match that money. Last year, JT Toppin was almost certainly going to be a first round pick. Texas Tech was able to match that money.

But you start your clock. It’s a three-year rookie cap in the NBA and the big money comes when your contract is up. So the sacrifice that you make financially is that that contract now is going to come up four years from now as opposed to three years from now. So if that all pans out, you are losing money, I think, mathematically on the deal. 

But to your point, it’s a much more important conversation to have. Are you ready to have an impact in the NBA? Can you compete with older guys who are playing for their dinner and see you as a threat? That’s a big difference between college and the pros. 

But like I said, to me, Thomas Haugh is really interesting, because that to me is the difference between Florida being a top five team — maybe even a preseason top three — to being, you know, below 20 perhaps. So super interesting times that we just wouldn’t even have contemplated in terms of NIL and the compensation math involved. 

Seth: Okay. Earlier this week, I published my ranking of the top 10 coaching hires of the spring carousel. And so I want to give Andy a chance to weigh in on my top 10. Let me give you my top five. No. 1: Gerry McNamara, Syracuse. No. 2: Jerrod Calhoun, Cincinnati. No. 3: Randy Bennett, Arizona State, who by the way, still hasn’t had his introductory press conference. He’s having some health issues. No. 4: Will Wade, LSU. No. 5: Michael Malone, North Carolina. 

So Andy, where did I go wrong in my new coach ranking?

Andy: Well, I just can’t get there with Will Wade right now because maybe I’m blinded by how it all transpired. It’s just such a weird deal that they fired him, they brought him back, all the NCAA stuff. And I think they completely underperformed this past season at NC State. I saw them early and I didn’t think he put together a good roster because it didn’t fit. So I’m not convinced this is all going to work out, Will Wade 2.0. He may get fired twice. 

You know, it’s interesting, Malone at five, I think the jury’s out. So I’m fine with that. I like Randy in the top three and you know, I know Jerrod Calhoun is from the area. I guess I want to wait and see on Cincinnati. They still feel to me like they’re in no man’s land in the Big 12. And so I’m not convinced.

I guess I might’ve put higher on your list — I love the Casey Alexander hire at Kansas State. Proven winner, they’ve got a style that works, they’re gonna get up and down, you gotta have something different at K-State in the Big 12. I really like that one. 

So let me throw something back at you. I played off of your list. So I had five that you didn’t mention: Luke Murray at BC; Ben Jacobson at Utah State; Scott Cross from Troy to Georgia Tech; Mickey McConnell, who played for Randy Bennett, replacing him at Saint Mary’s. 

And then John Groce, a little bit lateral from Akron to Charleston, but all he’s done is win wherever he’s been. Won big at Ohio, won big at Akron. I love this hire for Charleston, but I want to go to the top of my list and see what you think. 

So BC has floundered terribly since Al Skinner was forced out with Steve Donahue, Jim Christian, Earl Grant. They have no buzz in the ACC. Luke Murray is a proven offensive coach. He’s helped Dan Hurley to these (three) title games, two titles. BC needed something. They needed some pop. And I like this hire for BC. There’s been a buzz now for the first time in a decade with the program. If you can get the right guys, I like that one. 

And I was surprised by Ben Jacobson, who has won for 20 years in Northern Iowa. Utah State again finds a coach that can coach, and I have no doubt that in the new Pac-12, they’re going to win again. I think it was a great hire, because no one saw that coming, to pluck him from Northern Iowa to Utah State. 

Your thoughts on Luke Murray (Boston College) and Ben Jacobson (Utah State) as coaching hires?

Seth: Well, you gave me a lot to work with there, but part of what I look at is the schools themselves and the programs themselves. So it’s going to be hard if you’re going to Boston College or Georgia Tech to make my list. And that’s not a reflection of those two coaches that they hired. It’s those two programs. I see no evidence whatsoever that either of those schools is prepared to make any kind of an impact. Conversely, you mentioned Utah State and Saint Mary’s. 

First of all, I know it was kind of an easy choice with McConnell at Saint Mary’s, but I love it when assistants get an opportunity to move up. They did that with Jacobson’s assistant at UNI moving up. He had had a couple of different stints at Northern Iowa. He was also at Iowa State. So to me, I’m looking at a cultural thing. 

You look at Utah State and they keep winning no matter who the coach is there, right? Danny Sprinkle left for Washington. You plug in Ryan Odom, he wins there, he goes to Virginia, again. So there’s something in the bricks there at Utah State. 

And then, the last thing I’ll say is about Cincinnati. I got Cincinnati and Syracuse as my top two hires. I don’t understand why those two programs are in the situations that they are in. Those are traditional programs, decent sized markets. Cincinnati is an actual city. Syracuse is also a city, but we know about the traditional fans that they’ve had there. Whether it’s not getting enough support for the donors or what it is, but I do see two coaches there, McNamara and Calhoun, that should get it going. 

Do you get the sense that Cincinnati and Syracuse are ready to win?

Andy: Well, we got a new AD at Syracuse. And they have to commit or it’s just not going to happen. I feel like there’s kind of this window right now. It’s now or never — Syracuse could get buried in the ACC. And the same with Cincinnati. The Big 12 is not getting easier. It just continues to get tougher. And so I think these are critical hires. Obviously Calhoun has won wherever he’s been. So that’s important for Cincinnati.

And G-Mac, I actually like this better for him now than if he — if you want to make the argument, when he got passed over for a Red Autry when Boeheim left. I think it’s better that G-Mac is getting it now than a couple of years ago, because he’s been a head coach, he’s run a program. They obviously won the league title. They gave Duke a heck of a scare, the toughest game, really, before UConn. And, I think it’s easier to be the coach after the coach who replaces the legend. So I think things are aligning more because now they can see how much they better do for G-Mac that they didn’t do for Red.

Seth: Yeah, I would agree. And then the Mike Malone thing, we just got to wait and see. See what kind of roster he builds out of the portal. Interesting that he brought Chuck Martin as his associate head coach, who’s not in the North Carolina family. But then he kept the other assistants at North Carolina to have that continuity. So lots to be determined over the next several days and weeks in the transfer portal. And of course, I know everybody’s going to check back on these coaching rankings and let us know how we did. 

Seth: They celebrated a national championship in Ann Arbor, Michigan with a couple of good pieces of news for the Wolverines, who’ve had a pretty good few days. Dusty May agreed to a contract extension, not a big surprise. They signed or got a commitment from JP Estrella out of the transfer portal. Dusty’s got another couple of players that he’s looking at. 

It’s early, but how do you think Dusty May is handling the post-championship glow so far?

Andy: Tremendously well. Also, Elliott Cadeau is coming back, Trey McKenney is coming back, Morez Johnson is basically saying that he has no problem coming back, hasn’t made it official yet. 

But I will say this, Seth: What’s interesting is, I can’t think of another sport where a coach wins a championship and cannot take a breath. In men’s basketball, you win the title and literally the next morning you’re on the phone, portal, retention and celebration. All these things are happening all at once. And Dusty has the right personality to handle it, to balance it all. And so far he’s doing great, but it’s a lot for a coach that just went through this incredible gauntlet and stress to win a title and they cannot breathe after it.

Seth: Yeah, I’ve got Morez Johnson — because he is projected to be a borderline first round pick — in my never-too-early top 25. I haven’t projected him as leaving. If he comes back, I’ll probably end up putting Michigan at a preseason No. 1. So Dusty May is the type of guy who can keep this thing rolling and it’s going to be super duper interesting.