Bracketology 2026: Selection Sunday Men’s NCAA Tournament Projections

I feel confident about UConn, Houston and Iowa State all as No. 2 seeds. The final No. 1 seed could come down to three Big Ten teams in Michigan State, Purdue and Illinois. I actually think the Boilermakers have the best overall resume, plus are playing Sunday in the Big Ten championship game, but Michigan State did win at Purdue and we know that head-to-head is definitely a thing with this selection committee. And Sparty gets it over Illinois since they are 9-6 Quad 1, while the Illini are just 7-8.

When it comes to the No. 3 line there are numerous Big Ten teams on it, including Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have dropped back down to earth of late, but still boast a WAB ranking of No. 11 and SOR ranking of No. 7. Gonzaga rounds out the No. 3 seeds as it ended up as WCC regular season and tournament champs, along with having top 12 predictive metrics across the board.

A few days ago, I thought the No. 4 seeds were going to be a little trickier than they ended up being. Virginia finished 17-5 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents and advanced to the ACC tournament championship game before running into the machine that is Duke. The Cavaliers also have a strong WAB ranking of No. 7. Vanderbilt beat Florida earlier today and improved to 10-6 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents. The Commodores also have top 16 metrics across the board.

Alabama is the next No. 4 seed as it also has top 16 metrics and has wins away from home over St. John’s, Illinois and Tennessee. That win over St. John’s is crucial because the Red Storm are one of the teams that the Crimson Tide are competing with for a No. 4 seed. The final team in the top 16 is Kansas. The Jayhawks have wins over Arizona, Iowa State, Houston and Tennessee. Those are some really strong wins and even though their predictive metrics are hovering close to 20, these key wins are enough to prevent them from not being a protected seed.

The only real suspense that is left before we get to see the actual bracket is whether or not VCU is able to win the A-10 tournament or if Dayton becomes the automatic bid. VCU will still be in play for an at-large bid, but why chance it when it can seal the deal with a win today. I will be making final updates to my bracket throughout the day and once all games are completed.

Here are some thoughts regarding today’s bracket:

• My last four teams in the field ended up being Santa Clara, Miami (OH), Texas and SMU. SMU was the team that I was going to knock out of the field had we seen one more bid-stealer. Missouri and Miami (OH) each have poor predictive metrics; Texas is only three games over .500 and has a dreadful record against Quad 1-Quad 2 and SMU and has worst SOR of any at-large team and has an injury question with BJ Edwards. The Mustangs were just 1-4 since he got injured, but the school came out with a statement saying Edwards will be back for the NCAA Tournament.
• I think UCF has a wide range of seeding outcomes. The Knights have a resume metric average of 33.3, but also possess a BPI ranking of No. 57. They have strong wins over Texas Tech, Kansas, TCU, at Texas A&M and at BYU. I felt like the strong wins and particularly their strong resume metrics could lift them onto the No. 9 seed line. If the selection committee decides to seed them strictly based on predictive metrics, then UCF could even end up playing in the First Four in Dayton.
• Iowa is a team I feel like has a bit of an overrated resume. The best part about the Hawkeyes resume is that they have a 27.0 predictive metric average. However, they do not have any wins over tournament teams away from home. Their resume metrics average out to 42.3 which is good enough to be called a tournament team, but not really good enough to be a single digit seed. On top of that, they also have two Quad 3 losses, are just 1-8 against Quad 1A opponents and also have a poor nonconference strength-of-schedule. As a result, I have them as a No. 10 seed, even though their predictive metrics tell a different story.
• Wisconsin finished the season with a set of ridiculously strong wins. The Badgers own wins at Michigan, at Illinois, at Purdue, home against Michigan State and against Illinois in Chicago. Their metrics put them as a No. 6 seed, but with those strong wins, there’s no question Wisconsin belongs as a No. 5 seed.
• I would love to see St. John’s get a No. 4 seed after winning the Big East regular season and tournament, but I just think it’s going to be hard for it to jump teams like Alabama, Kansas, Vanderbilt or even Wisconsin. The problem is, the Red Storm did not produce any significant wins in nonconference play and the Big East was not nearly as good (at least the top half) as some of these other power conferences.

Last 4 Byes

Iowa, Texas A&M, NC State, Missouri

Last 4 In

Santa Clara, Miami (OH), Texas, SMU

First 4 Out

Oklahoma, Auburn, San Diego State, Indiana

Next 4 Out

New Mexico, Stanford, Oklahoma State, California

Bracketology

16 Howard Bison

16 Lehigh Mountain Hawks

11 Santa Clara Broncos

11 SMU Mustangs

16 Long Island Sharks

16 Prairie View A&M Panthers

11

11 Texas Longhorns

Midwest (Chicago)

Buffalo

1 Michigan Wolverines

16 Siena Saints

8 Georgia Bulldogs

9 Saint Louis Billikens

Greenville

5 Texas Tech Red Raiders

12 Akron Zips

4 Virginia Cavaliers

13 California Baptist Lancers

Tampa

6 Louisville Cardinals

11 South Florida Bulls

3 Vanderbilt Commodores

14 Tennessee State Tigers

Philadelphia

7 Miami Hurricanes

10 Iowa Hawkeyes

2 UConn Huskies

15 Idaho Vandals

South (Houston)

Tampa

1 Florida Gators

16 Queens Royals

8 Utah State Aggies

9 UCF Knights

Philadelphia

5 Arkansas Razorbacks

12 High Point Panthers

4 St. John's Red Storm

13 North Dakota State Bison

St. Louis

6 BYU Cougars

11 Santa Clara Broncos / SMU Mustangs

3 Illinois Fighting Illini

14 Troy Trojans

Oklahoma City

7 Kentucky Wildcats

10 NC State Wolfpack

2 Houston Cougars

15 Kennesaw State Owls

West (San Jose)

San Diego

1 Arizona Wildcats

16 Howard Bison / Lehigh Mountain Hawks

8 Saint Mary's Gaels

9 Villanova Wildcats

Portland

5 Wisconsin Badgers

12 Northern Iowa Panthers

4 Alabama Crimson Tide

13 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Portland

6 Tennessee Volunteers

11 VCU Rams

3 Gonzaga Bulldogs

14 Penn Quakers

Buffalo

7 Clemson Tigers

10 Texas A&M Aggies

2 Purdue Boilermakers

15 Furman Paladins

East (Washington, DC)

Greenville

1 Duke Blue Devils

16 Long Island Sharks / Prairie View A&M Panthers

8 TCU Horned Frogs

9 Ohio State Buckeyes

San Diego

5 Kansas Jayhawks

12 McNeese Cowboys

4 Nebraska Cornhuskers

13 Hofstra Pride

St. Louis

6 North Carolina Tar Heels

11 Miami Ohio Red Hawks / Texas Longhorns

3 Michigan State Spartans

14 Wright State Raiders

Oklahoma City

7 UCLA Bruins

10 Missouri Tigers

2 Iowa State Cyclones

15 UMBC Retrievers

Bids by Conference

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