Bracketology 2026: Men’s Tournament Bubble Teams — It’s Win or Go Home Time for Indiana, Auburn and Cal

NC State (11 seed) vs. Pitt

I think NC State will get in regardless of its outcome against Pitt. A loss to Pitt, will likely end up only being a Quad 2 loss. That being said, the Wolfpack have played very poor basketball over the last couple of weeks and getting a win over Pitt might actually be enough to lock up a bid considering how bad other bubble teams have played.

Auburn (First 4 Out) vs. Mississippi State

-There’s no doubt about it that Auburn has to win this game. A loss would drop the Tigers to .500 overall and that won’t be good enough to receive an at-large bid. A win keeps them alive for another day.

UCF (9 seed) vs. Cincinnati (Next 4 Out)

-This is definitely a must-win game for Cincinnati. A win does not put the Bearcats into the field, but it gives them the opportunity to get into the field if they are able to get a win in the next round.

Indiana (Last 4 In) vs. Northwestern

-Here is another team that has to have a win. A loss would drop the Hoosiers to just 6-14 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents, plus they’d finish 4-10 away from home. Neither is not good enough. Can Indiana receive an at-large bid with just one win in the Big Ten Tournament? Yes. But this is going to depend on how the rest of the bubble teams perform, as well as if we end up seeing bid-stealers. I would not feel comfortable on Selection Sunday with only one win in the Big Ten Tourney.

Texas (Last 4 In) vs. Ole Miss

-I think Texas ultimately gets in, but I am starting to get really nervous about its resume. What stands out the most to me when comparing the Longhorns to other bubble teams is the fact that they are just 7-12 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents and have resume metrics approaching the mid-40’s. What I think ultimately gets them in to the field are the six Quad 1 victories, including wins at Alabama, at Missouri and at Texas A&M. For peace of mind, I’d suggest not losing to Ole Miss.

West Virginia vs. BYU

-It’s actually funny that West Virginia, a team not in the current field, is seeded better than BYU, a team currently projected as a No. 6 seed. This will be a must-win game for the Mountaineers and they’ll likely need to win two more after this one in order to have a real chance at receiving an at-large bid.

Florida State vs. California (First 4 Out)

-Cal is hanging around as one of the first four teams out of the field. Even with a loss over the weekend at Wake Forest, the Golden Bears saw their resume improve with Stanford winning at NC State. Remember, Cal beat Stanford twice this season. This game against the Seminoles is going to be a challenge, but it’s a game Cal has to win in order to remain alive for an at-large bid.

TCU vs. Oklahoma State (Next 4 Out)

-TCU should be a tournament team regardless of this outcome, but Oklahoma State has to win this game in order to remain alive. The Cowboys will not only need to beat TCU, but they will also need to beat Kansas in the next round in order to be in the conversation for a bid.

---

“Invitations Sent” are teams that are all but 100 percent assured of receiving an at-large bid even if they don’t win another game.

“Invitations Printed” are teams that are safely in the field for now, but still have work to do. 

“On the List…for Now” are teams that are in the clear at the moment, but could fall out due to a couple of bad losses.

“The Uninvited” are teams that would be very unlikely to receive an at-large bid if the tournament field were selected today.

Before continuing, it’s important to note the following:

• Result-Based Metrics (SOR, KPI, WAB): these metrics help determine inclusion into the field
• Predictive Metrics (NET, BPI, Ken Pom, Torvik): these metrics play a role in the seeding of teams

Regarding the NET Quadrants, a Quad 1 game meets one of the following criteria:

• A home game against an opponent ranked 1-30 in the NET
• A neutral court game against an opponent ranked 1-50
• An away game against an opponent ranked 1-75

First, here’s a real-time look at my cut line:

---

ACC

Invitations Sent: Duke (No. 1 seed), Virginia (4), North Carolina (6), Louisville (6), Miami (7), Clemson (7)

Invitations Printed: NC State (11)

On the List…for Now: SMU (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: Stanford (First 4 Out), California (First 4 Out), Virginia Tech (First 4 Out)

SMU

The Good: No bad losses, wins over Louisville, UNC, Texas A&M (n), 12-11 Quad 1-Quad 3

The Bad: 1-5 against Quad 1A opponents

The Outlook: The Mustangs took care of business against Syracuse in the first round of the ACC Tournament yesterday. That’s a big win to stop the funk they’ve been in the last week or so. The big question is will BJ Edwards return for SMU? That could absolutely factor in to the selection committee’s decision. The Mustangs have not played well without him. I believe SMU can lock up a bid with a win over Louisville on Wednesday.

Stanford

The Good: 5-6 Quad 1, 9-8 Quad 1 and Quad 2, beat Louisville, UNC, SMU, Saint Louis (n), Won at NC State

The Bad: Four Quad 4 losses

The Outlook: Stanford seemingly came out of nowhere to enter the field after winning at NC State last weekend. It was one of a few bubble teams that came away with a big win. However, the Cardinal were unable to continue their momentum and lost a heartbreaker to Pitt in the first round of the ACC Tournament. The loss was their fourth Quad 3 loss on the season and it’s probably going to be too much to overcome.

California

The Good: 4-6 against Quad 1 opponents, beat UNC, SMU, UCLA (n)

The Bad: 6-9 versus Quad 1/Quad 2, predictive metrics in 70’s, 2-3 vs Quad 2, NCSOS: No. 329, Quad 3 loss to Pitt

The Outlook: The Golden Bears are going to need to win at least two wins in the ACC Tournament. First up, a tough Florida State team. That’s followed by Duke. Honestly, that’s the opportunity this team needs to make a statement. Will they be able to? Hopefully we will find out.

Virginia Tech

The Good: Beat Virginia, Cal, won at Clemson, KPI: 41

The Bad: 2-9 Quad 1, 2-7 against Quad 1A opponents, predictive metrics around 60

The Outlook: The Hokies lost in the first round of the ACC Tournament to Wake Forest. This was something they could not afford to do. The prospects of receiving an at-large bid now are very slim.

Big East

Invitations Sent: UConn (1), St. John’s (5), Villanova (8)

Invitations Printed: None

On the List…for Now: None

The Uninvited: Seton Hall

Seton Hall

The Good: Beat NC State (n), 8-6 r/n

The Bad: Only one win over an at-large team, WAB: 55, 2-5 Quad 1, 0-4 Quad 1A, two Quad 3 losses

The Outlook: The Pirates lost to St. John’s on Friday night which, in effect, ends their chances to receive an at-large bid. Seton Hall is going to need to win the Big East tournament in order to be part of the NCAA Tournament.

Big Ten

Invitations Sent: Michigan (1), Illinois (2), Michigan State (2), Purdue (3), Nebraska (3), Wisconsin (6)

Invitations Printed: UCLA (8), Iowa (9)

On the List…for Now: Ohio State (10), Indiana (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: None

Ohio State

The Good: NET: 30, WAB: 35, beat Wisconsin, UCLA, Purdue, Indiana, no bad losses

The Bad: 3-10 Quad 1, 9-11 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Outlook: Ohio State will likely be a tournament team regardless of how it plays in the Big Ten Tournament. A win over Iowa would lock up a bid for sure, but a loss to Maryland has the potential to be a problem. The poor play of the bubble has really helped the Buckeyes maintain a strong position in the field.

Indiana

The Good: Beat Purdue, Wisconsin, won at UCLA, no bad losses

The Bad: 3-11 Quad 1, 6-13 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Outlook: The Hoosiers certainly have not looked like an NCAA Tournament team of late, but they continue to hang around thanks to poor bubble play and opportunities. If Indiana loses to Northwestern today, I don’t think it will receive an at-large bid. However, a win over Northwestern will out the Hoosiers right in play for a bid. They’ll be a the mercy of bid-stealers though. I’d recommend beating Purdue as well.

Big 12

Invitations Sent: Arizona (1), Houston (2), Iowa State (3), Kansas (4), Texas Tech (5), BYU (7)

Invitations Printed: TCU (9), UCF (9)

On the List…for Now: None

The Uninvited: Oklahoma State (Next 4 Out), Cincinnati (Next 4 Out)

TCU

The Good: 5-7 Quad 1, won at Texas Tech, beat Iowa State, beat Florida, Wisconsin on a neutral court, WAB: 33

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Notre Dame, Quad 4 loss to New Orleans, T-Rank: 52 

The Outlook: I don’t think it will matter how TCU plays in the Big 12 Tournament. The only thing in play will likely be the Horned Frogs seed for the NCAA Tournament. They’re currently a single-digit seed, but will drop to a double-digit seed should they get knocked out early.

Oklahoma State

The Good: No bad losses, beat BYU, Texas A&M and UCF, won at UCF

The Bad: T-Rank: 81, NET: 79, 2-10 Quad 1, 9-13 Quad 1 and Quad 2, NCSOS: 257, 4-8 R/N

The Outlook: The Cowboys will need to beat TCU and Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament in order to get in play for an at-large bid. Anything short of doing that, won’t be enough.

Cincinnati

The Good: beat Iowa State, UCF, BYU, won at Kansas, T-Rank: 30

The Bad: WAB: 62, 3-11 Quad 1, 2-11 R/N, 7-13 Quad 1 and Quad 2, Quad 4 loss to Eastern Michigan

The Outlook: Cincinnati still has a chance, but today’s game against UCF is an absolute must-win. If the Bearcats are able to beat the Knights, it will set up a massive opportunity against Arizona. A win over the Wildcats could be enough to get Cincinnati an at-large bid.

West Virginia

The Good: Beat Kansas, BYU, won at UCF, BPI: 46, 5-7 Quad 1

The Bad: NCSOS: 282, 3-10 R/N, 2-5 Quad 2

The Outlook: West Virginia is going to need to beat BYU today AND beat Houston tomorrow in order to get itself in play for an at-large bid. Even if the Mountaineers are able to do that, I’m still not so sure that will be enough for an at-large bid.

SEC

Invitations Sent: Florida (1), Alabama (4), Vanderbilt (4), Tennessee (5), Arkansas (5), Kentucky (7), Georgia (8)

Invitations Printed: Texas A&M (10), Missouri (10)

On the List…for Now: Texas (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: Auburn (First 4 Out), Oklahoma (Next 4 Out)

Missouri 

The Good: SOR: 37, BPI: 42, beat Tennessee, Florida, Auburn, Vanderbilt and won at Kentucky and at Texas A&M, no bad losses

The Bad: NET: 60, 5-8 R/N

The Outlook: I think Missouri will be an at-large bid regardless of how it performs in the SEC Tournament, but I would avoid losing to LSU if the Tigers end up beating Kentucky.

Texas A&M

The Good: SOR: 32, 5-6 Quad 1, no bad losses, beat Kentucky, wins at Georgia, at Texas, BPI: 27

The Bad: KPI: 50

The Outlook: This is another team I believe will be in the NCAA Tournament no matter the results in the SEC Tournament. Avoid losing to South Carolina and the Aggies will lock up a bid for certain.

Texas

The Good: SOR: 43, Ken Pom: 33, 7-9 Quad 1, beat Vanderbilt, Georgia, NC State (n), won at Alabama, at Missouri and at Texas A&M

The Bad: KPI: 60, 7-12 Quad 1/Quad 2, Quad 3 loss to Mississippi State

The Outlook: All Texas needed to do was beat Oklahoma in its regular season finale and it would have locked up a bid. I think it’ll be very important for the Longhorns to avoid a loss to Ole Miss in the first round of the SEC Tournament. A win and Texas should be in.

Auburn

The Good: Won at Florida, beat St. John’s (n), Arkansas, NC State, Kentucky

The Bad: 16-15 overall, 4-12 Quad 1, 7-14 Quad 1-Quad 2, Quad 3 loss to Ole Miss

The Outlook: Auburn has the necessary wins to be an at-large team. The problem is its overall record. Only two teams have ever received an at-large bid while being only two games over .500, so if the Tigers only win one game in the SEC Tournament, they will need to overcome the history books in order to get an at-large bid. I think a win over Mississippi State and a win over Tennessee probably gets them in the field. One win and I have a hard time seeing them get in, but I wouldn’t rule it out completely. Lose to Mississippi State? Well, then the decision is easy.

Oklahoma

The Good: SOR: 49, won at Vanderbilt, at Texas, beat Auburn and Georgia, no bad losses

The Bad: 3-9 Quad 1, 9-14 Quad 1 and Quad 2, WAB: 57, KPI: 70

The Outlook: The Sooners are going to need to beat South Carolina, Texas A&M and Arkansas in the SEC Tournament in order to have a realistic chance for an at-large bid.

Other Candidates

Invitations Sent: Gonzaga (3), Saint Mary’s (7)

Invitations Printed: Utah State (8), Saint Louis (9), Santa Clara (10), Miami OH (11)

On the List…for Now: VCU (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: New Mexico (Next 4 Out), San Diego State

Miami (OH)

The Good: 28-0 against D-I teams, SOR: 21, WAB: 32, 1-0 Quad 2, 15-0 r/n

The Bad: NCSOS: 364, BPI: 86, zero Quad 1 games played, 27 of 28 D-I wins against Quad 3 or Quad 4

The Outlook: As the lone undefeated team remaining, the RedHawks have one interesting resume. They would be the first team to ever receive an at-large bid without having even played a Quad 1 opponent. Miami finished the regular season with an undefeated record and I don’t see how the selection committee can leave this team out. Most importantly, the RedHawks resume metrics are in line with a team that is normally included in the at-large field.

Santa Clara

The Good: WAB: 36, SOR: 39, T-Rank: 28, 8-6 Quad 1/Quad 2, beat Saint Mary’s twice

The Bad: Quad 4 loss to Loyola, 2-5 Quad 1, BPI: 49

The Outlook: The Broncos did what they needed to do and reached the championship game of the WCC Tournament. This should be enough for an at-large bid. I won’t call them a lock just yet, due to the possibilities of a bevvy of bid-stealers.

VCU 

The Good: KPI: 31, 3-2 Quad 2, no bad losses, beat Virginia Tech (n), South Florida (n)

The Bad: 1-5 Quad 1, T-Rank: 56

The Outlook: VCU came away with a big win on the road at Dayton on Friday to improve its case for an at-large bid. The bubble isn’t particularly strong, so if the Rams can make a run to the A-10 championship, an at-large bid will certainly be within reach. While I do have VCU in the field if the season ended today, it needs to be weary of the possibility of bid-stealers.

New Mexico

The Good: Won at VCU, Beat Santa Clara, San Diego State, 8-7 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Colorado State and at New Mexico State, BPI: 56

The Outlook: New Mexico is likely going to need to reach the Mountain West Tournament finals in order to be in play for an at-large bid. One positive is that its wins against VCU on the road and against Santa Clara are now two wins against teams currently in the field.

San Diego State

The Good: Beat New Mexico and Utah State, 5-2 Quad 2

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Troy

The Outlook: The Aztecs are probably going to need to win the MWC Tourney in order to get into the NCAA Tournament.

🏀 MARCH MADNESS SALE! A 1-year subscription to HOOPS HQ is now a sweet $16/year — that’s 75% off. 🏀

More Like This

NCAA

How A Bike Ride Went Viral — And Brought A Team Together

Conferences

Rick Pitino on State of NCAA Basketball: “Best of the Last 20 Years.”

Transfer portal

Portal Report: Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg Back on Top