Bracketology Bubble: Ohio State and VCU Trending Up

We are getting closer to crunch time for the bubble, so every time a bubble team plays, the game will get magnified. It was a good few days for Ohio State, Cal and Indiana as each of these teams handled their business against teams towards the bottom of their conference. VCU also picked up a critical victory at Dayton. As a result, Ohio State remains above the First Four, VCU moves back into the field as the last team in and Indiana rises to the first team out. However, none of these teams are safe. Indiana heads to Ohio State this weekend in what may end up being the most important bubble game on the docket.

Congratulations to Miami (OH) for finishing off an incredible undefeated regular season by winning at Ohio in overtime on Friday. Should the RedHawks lose in the MAC Tourney, they will still earn an at-large bid. There is no way the selection committee can keep out a one loss team. Their result-based metrics are also in line with a team that normally receives an at-large bid too. All this means is that if Miami (OH) loses in its conference tournament, there will be one fewer at-large bid to hand out. Every bubble team should now be rooting for this team to continue its winning ways throughout the conference tournament.

I’m starting to get real concerned about SMU. The Mustangs have lost three games in a row after dropping one at home to Miami on Wednesday. As a result, they now have the No. 46 WAB ranking and are just 8-11 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents. SMU now finds itself sitting in my Last Four In and have a critical game this weekend on the road against a dangerous Florida State team. The only saving grace for the Mustangs is that much of the bubble has squandered away opportunities of late.

Speaking of important bubble games, here’s my list of what to watch this weekend and how they might impact the bubble:

Houston at Oklahoma State – Sat 12:00pm, CBS
-A win puts Oklahoma State right near the cut-line, pending other results
Virginia Tech at Virginia – Sat 12:00pm, The CW Network
-A win likely puts Virginia Tech into the field
Cincinnati at TCU – Sat 2pm, TNT/truTV
-TCU would lock up a bid with a win, while Cincinnati would move into First 4 Out with a win
SMU at Florida State – Sat 2pm, ACC Network
-SMU has a chance to lift its seed above the Last 4 In with a win, a loss puts it near cut-line
New Mexico at Utah State – Sat 4pm
-Arguably a must-win for New Mexico to keep at-large hopes alive, a win puts it on cut-line
California at Wake Forest – Sat 4pm, ACC Network
-A win likely keeps Cal in the field, while a loss likely knocks Cal out of the field
Indiana at Ohio State – Sat 5:30pm, FOX
-Indiana likely jumps into the field with a win, but will be out with a loss, while Ohio State would likely be a tournament team with a win and probably Last 4 In with a loss
Auburn at Alabama – Sat 8:30pm, ESPN
-Auburn would remain in the field with a win and could clinch an at-large bid in theory, a loss and the Tigers probably need to win two games in SEC Tournament
Oklahoma at Texas – Sat 8:30pm, SEC Network
-Texas should be a tournament team regardless, but will lock up a bid for sure with a win
UCLA at USC – Sat 9pm, FS1
-This is a must-win game for USC to keep any at-large hope alive, UCLA should be in the tournament regardless, but a win locks up a bid with no doubts

“Invitations Sent” are teams that are all but 100 percent assured of receiving an at-large bid even if they don’t win another game.

“Invitations Printed” are teams that are safely in the field for now, but still have work to do.

“On the List…for Now” are teams that are in the clear at the moment, but could fall out due to a couple of bad losses.

“The Uninvited” are teams that would be very unlikely to receive an at-large bid if the tournament field were selected today.

Before continuing, it’s important to note the following:

Result-Based Metrics (SOR, KPI, WAB): these metrics help determine inclusion into the field
Predictive Metrics (NET, BPI, Ken Pom, Torvik): these metrics play a role in the seeding of teams

Regarding the NET Quadrants, a Quad 1 game meets one of the following criteria:

A home game against an opponent ranked 1-30 in the NET
A neutral court game against an opponent ranked 1-50
An away game against an opponent ranked 1-75

First, here’s a real-time look at my cut line:

Last Four Byes

1.
Texas Longhorns
2.
TCU Horned Frogs
3.
Texas A&M Aggies
4.
Ohio State Buckeyes

Last Four Teams In

1.
Santa Clara Broncos
2.
SMU Mustangs
3.
Auburn Tigers
4.
VCU Rams

First Four Teams Out

1.
California Golden Bears
2.
Indiana Hoosiers
3.
Virginia Tech Hokies
4.
New Mexico Lobos

Next Four Teams Out

1.
Cincinnati Bearcats
2.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
3.
West Virginia Mountaineers
4.
Seton Hall Pirates

ACC

Invitations Sent: Duke (No. 1 seed), Virginia (4), North Carolina (5), Louisville (6), Miami (8), Clemson (8)

Invitations Printed: NC State (9)

On the List…for Now: SMU (11)

The Uninvited: California (First 4 Out), Virginia Tech (First 4 Out)

SMU

The Good: No bad losses, wins over Louisville, UNC, Texas A&M (n), 12-11 Quad 1-Quad 3

The Bad: 1-5 against Quad 1A opponents

The Outlook: The Mustangs have lost three games in a row after going 0-2 on their West Coast trip to Cal and Stanford and then losing at home to Miami on Wednesday. SMU has entered the danger zone and currently resides in my Last 4 In. It ends the regular season with a game at a hot Florida State team and could really use a win to quell the potential of getting knocked out of the field. Regardless, more work will need to get done in the ACC Tournament.

California

The Good: 4-5 against Quad 1 opponents, beat UNC, SMU, UCLA (n)

The Bad: 6-8 versus Quad 1/Quad 2, predictive metrics in 70’s, 2-3 vs Quad 2, NCSOS: No. 329, Quad 3 loss to Pitt

The Outlook: The Golden Bears picked up an important win at Georgia Tech on Wednesday. Avoiding another bad loss is an absolute must. Had Cal not lost at home to Pitt last weekend, it would be in really good position to receive an at-large bid. Instead, it’s up in the air and the Golden Bears need to win at Wake Forest on Saturday in order to remain directly on the bubble cut line.

Virginia Tech

The Good: Beat Virginia, Cal, won at Clemson, KPI: 41

The Bad: 2-9 Quad 1, 2-7 against Quad 1A opponents, predictive metrics around 60

The Outlook: The Hokies added an obvious must-win over Boston College on Tuesday which now sets up a critical game at Virginia on Saturday. There’s still hope left for this team to receive an at-large bid thanks to the poor play from the rest of the bubble teams. If the Hokies are able to pull off the upset at Virginia, there’s a very good chance they will enter the field.

Big East

Invitations Sent: UConn (1), St. John’s (6), Villanova (8)

Invitations Printed: None

On the List…for Now: None

The Uninvited: Seton Hall (Next 4 Out)

Seton Hall

The Good: Beat NC State (n), 8-6 r/n

The Bad: Only one win over an at-large team, WAB: 55, 2-5 Quad 1, 0-4 Quad 1A, two Quad 3 losses

The Outlook: The Pirates lost to St. John’s on Friday night which, in effect, ends their chances to receive an at-large bid. Seton Hall is going to need to win the Big East tournament in order to be part of the NCAA Tournament.

Big Ten

Invitations Sent: Michigan (1), Illinois (2), Michigan State (2), Purdue (3), Nebraska (3), Wisconsin (6)

Invitations Printed: UCLA (8), Iowa (9)

On the List…for Now: Ohio State (11)

The Uninvited: Indiana (First 4 Out), USC

UCLA

The Good: BPI: 26, WAB: 32, SOR: 33, beat Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska

The Bad: 3-7 Quad 1A

The Outlook: UCLA now owns wins over Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska and is in excellent shape to receive an at-large bid. It’s very likely it could lose out and still receive an at-large bid, but a win at USC on Saturday would no doubt lock up a bid for the Bruins.

Ohio State

The Good: NET: 32, WAB: 39, beat Wisconsin, UCLA, Purdue, no bad losses

The Bad: 2-10 Quad 1, 8-11 Quad 1/Quad 2, KPI: 49

The Outlook: Ohio State got it done on Sunday as it knocked off Purdue — a win that elevated the Buckeyes into the at-large field. Not only are they in the field right now, but they are also above the Last Four In cut line because they have predictive metrics in the top 40. Ohio State is not out of the woods yet though. It finishes Big Ten play at home against fellow bubble team Indiana. I will feel very good about the Buckeyes’ chances to dance with a win over the Hoosiers.

Indiana

The Good: Beat Purdue, Wisconsin, won at UCLA

The Bad: 2-10 Quad 1, 5-12 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Outlook: The Hoosiers blew out Minnesota at home on Wednesday to put a halt to their four game losing streak. They remain on the outside of the field looking in, but there’s still hope remaining. Indiana finishes Big Ten play on the road at fellow bubble team Ohio State. It will need this game in order to make a case for an at-large bid. The one part right now that really scares me about its resume is the fact that it is just 5-12 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents. There’s no doubt the selection committee will take issue with this.

USC

The Good: Won at Wisconsin, beat Indiana, 9-6 r/n

The Bad: 1-9 Quad 1, Ken Pom: 69, Quad 3 loss to Oregon, one win over at-large team

The Outlook: It’s all falling apart for the Trojans. They have now lost six games in a row after suffering a defeat at home against Nebraska on Saturday and then losing at Washington on Wednesday. To make matters worse, their lead scorer Chad Baker-Mazara was kicked off the team. USC ends Big Ten play at home against UCLA. Obviously, it cannot afford a loss. The vibes here are not good and the Trojans will likely miss the NCAA Tournament.

Big 12

Invitations Sent: Arizona (1), Houston (2), Iowa State (3), Texas Tech (4), Kansas (4), BYU (7), UCF (9)

Invitations Printed: TCU (10)

On the List…for Now: None

The Uninvited: Oklahoma State (Next 4 Out), Cincinnati (Next 4 Out)

TCU

The Good: 5-7 Quad 1, won at Texas Tech, beat Iowa State, beat Florida, Wisconsin on a neutral court

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Notre Dame, Quad 4 loss to New Orleans, T-Rank: 52

The Outlook: The two bad losses on the Horned Frogs’ resume stick out like a sore thumb. Especially the Quad 4 loss to New Orleans. However, TCU has done an excellent job of negating these bad losses by getting some great wins. The biggest win of Tuesday night went to the Horned Frogs as they pulled off the upset at Texas Tech. I’m not going to call TCU a lock just yet, but it is now in very good shape to receive an at-large bid.

Oklahoma State

The Good: No bad losses, beat BYU, Texas A&M and UCF, won at UCF

The Bad: T-Rank: 87, NET: 78, 2-9 Quad 1, 9-12 Quad 1 and Quad 2, NCSOS: 257, 4-8 R/N

The Outlook: The Cowboys kept their NCAA Tournament hopes alive with a big road win at UCF on Tuesday. They also managed to improve many areas of their resume that were deficient. Oklahoma State added a Quad 1 win and a road win, which were two areas that were not good enough. An interesting matchup lies ahead as the Cowboys will face Houston on Saturday. A win over the Cougars could make things very interesting.

Cincinnati

The Good: beat Iowa State, UCF, BYU, won at Kansas, T-Rank: 27

The Bad: WAB: 58, 3-10 Quad 1, 2-10 R/N, 10-12 Quad 1 through Quad 3, Quad 4 loss to Eastern Michigan

The Outlook: Cincinnati has come out of nowhere to win six of its last seven games. Last night’s win over BYU lifted the Bearcats into the Next Four Out. They finish Big 12 play on Saturday at TCU. This will be a game Cincinnati needs to have in order to stay relevant on the bubble. It will also need to make a run in the Big 12 Tournament. The selection committee is going to have a hard time looking away from its 2-10 record away from home, plus that Quad 4 loss to EMU.

West Virginia

The Good: Beat Kansas, BYU, won at UCF, BPI: 47, 5-7 Quad 1

The Bad: NCSOS: 282, 3-10 R/N, 2-5 Quad 2

The Outlook: West Virginia beat UCF on Friday night to keep its slim at-large hopes alive. The Mountaineers will still need to do plenty of work in the Big 12 Tournament. It’s definitely an uphill climb from here.

SEC

Invitations Sent: Florida (2), Alabama (4), Vanderbilt (5), Tennessee (5), Arkansas (5), Kentucky (6), Georgia (8)

Invitations Printed: Texas (10), Missouri (10), Texas A&M (10)

On the List…for Now: Auburn (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: None

Missouri

The Good: SOR: 32, BPI: 42, beat Tennessee, Florida, Auburn, Vanderbilt and won at Kentucky and at Texas A&M, no bad losses

The Bad: Ken Pom: 51, 5-8 R/N

The Outlook: The Tigers lost at Oklahoma on Tuesday night, but still remain in good shape to receive an at-large bid. They are still a very solid 10-8 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents and have top-40 resume metrics. Missouri closes SEC play on Saturday against Arkansas. A win over the Razorbacks locks up a bid.

Texas

The Good: WAB: 42, SOR: 40, Ken Pom: 33, 7-9 Quad 1, beat Vanderbilt, Georgia, NC State (n), won at Alabama, at Missouri and at Texas A&M

The Bad: KPI: 58, 8-11 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Outlook: Texas lost at Arkansas on Wednesday 105-85, but the loss itself is not the end of the world. The Longhorns are still in good position to receive an at-large bid. If they can beat Oklahoma at home on Saturday, I believe they will be going dancing. A loss to Oklahoma could and things could start to get interesting. Regardless, having seven wins over Quad 1 opponents will ultimately get this team over the finish line.

Texas A&M

The Good: SOR: 38, 5-6 Quad 1, no bad losses, beat Kentucky, wins at Georgia, at Texas, BPI: 30

The Bad: KPI: 56

The Outlook: The Aggies added a very important Quad 1 win over Kentucky on Tuesday, which bolstered their chances for an at-large bid. They had been slipping very close towards the bubble the last couple of weeks after losing six of eight games. This win helps Texas A&M breathe a bit easier. It is now 5-6 against Quad 1 opponents and wraps SEC play on the road at LSU. The Aggies are not out of the woods yet, but things are now looking much more promising.

Auburn

The Good: Won at Florida, beat St. John’s (n), Arkansas, NC State, Kentucky

The Bad: 16-14 overall, 8-13 Quad 1-Quad 3, Quad 3 loss to Ole Miss

The Outlook: Auburn has the necessary wins to be an at-large team. The problem is its overall record. Only two teams have ever received an at-large bid while being only two games over .500, and that’s where the Tigers are right now. The Tigers close SEC play with a road game at Alabama. A loss and they are back to being just one game over .500 and out of the field. In this case, multiple wins in the SEC Tournament will be needed for a chance at an a-large bid.

Other Candidates

Invitations Sent: Gonzaga (3), Saint Mary’s (7)

Invitations Printed: Saint Louis (7), Utah State (9), Miami OH (11)

On the List…for Now: Santa Clara (Last 4 In), VCU (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: New Mexico (First 4 Out), San Diego State

New Mexico

The Good: Won at VCU, Beat Santa Clara, San Diego State, 8-6 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Bad: Maybe just one win over an at-large team, Quad 3 loss to Colorado State and at New Mexico State, BPI: 57

The Outlook: New Mexico was back in the field earlier after beating San Diego State last weekend. However, the Lobos followed up that big win with a Quad 3 home loss to Colorado State. Not good. The one positive for New Mexico is that it gets to finish Mountain West play on the road at Utah State. It’s likely going to need this win in order to get an at-large bid. Should it lose, a trip to the Mountain West Tournament championship game will be a must for a good chance to get in.

Miami (OH)

The Good: 28-0 against D-I teams, SOR: 21, WAB: 32, 1-0 Quad 2, 15-0 r/n

The Bad: NCSOS: 364, BPI: 86, zero Quad 1 games played, 27 of 28 D-I wins against Quad 3 or Quad 4

The Outlook: As the lone undefeated team remaining, the RedHawks have one interesting resume. They would be the first team to ever receive an at-large bid without having even played a Quad 1 opponent. Miami finishes the regular season with an undefeated record and I don’t see how the selection committee can leave this team out. Most importantly, the RedHawks resume metrics are in line with a team that is normally included in the at-large field.

Santa Clara

The Good: WAB: 43, SOR: 42, T-Rank: 31, 8-6 Quad 1/Quad 2, beat Saint Mary’s

The Bad: Quad 4 loss to Loyola, 1-5 Quad 1, BPI: 50

The Outlook: The Broncos closed out WCC play with a win over Oregon State last Saturday. The win keeps them in the Last Four In. In an ideal world, Santa Clara reaches the WCC Championship game while getting a win over Saint Mary’s. If it fails to do this, its chances of receiving an at-large bid will come down to bid-stealers and how the rest of the bubble teams perform in their conference tournaments.

San Diego State

The Good: Beat New Mexico and Utah State, 5-3 Quad 2

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Troy

The Outlook: The Aztecs have now dropped four of their last six games after losing at New Mexico and at Boise State over the last week. Their at-large chances are slowly slipping away as a result. San Diego State ends Mountain West play at home in a must-win game against UNLV and then has to make a deep run in the Mountain West Tournament in order to have any chance for an at-large bid.

VCU

The Good: KPI: 36, BPI: 46, 3-2 Quad 2, no bad losses, beat Virginia Tech (n), South Florida (n)

The Bad: 2-5 Quad 1, T-Rank: 56

The Outlook: VCU came away with a big win on the road at Dayton on Friday to improve its case for an at-large bid. The bubble isn’t particularly strong, so if the Rams can make a run to the A-10 championship, an at-large bid will certainly be within reach. I suggest doing this and not leave it to chance.

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Meet your guide

Brad Wachtel

Brad Wachtel, Hoops HQ's lead Bracketologist since 2024, has two decades of experience projecting NCAA Tournament brackets. His NCAA Tournament analysis has appeared on countless outlets, including the Field of 68, SiriusXM College Sports, the Sports Grid, the Asbury Park Press and the Newark Star-Ledger. He is a former men's basketball administrator at Rutgers and director of operations for The Hoop Group.

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