We have finally reached the end of the regular season. Don’t despair! The best is yet to come. But we still have lots to sort out between now and the start of the NCAA Tournament. And there’s no time like the present.
Frankly, I’m looking forward to the chance to reset my picks with the onset of March Madness. I’ve been floundering under water for most of the season, but I’m also prepared to finish strong. A winning wave is coming!
Here are my picks against the spread for today’s top games.
Louisville at Miami
Seth’s Analysis
Frankly, I’m confused as to why Louisville is favored. Nobody expected the Hurricanes to be considered the “other Miami” this season, but they have quietly been stockpiling wins and entered the AP Top 25 at No. 22 last week. Jai Lucas did a masterful job using the transfer portal to acquire talents like 6-foot-9 senior forward Malik Reneau, who came from Indiana and is averaging 19.1 points and 6.7 rebounds per game, and 6-foot-2 senior point guard Tre Donaldson, who came from Michigan and is putting up 16.6 points, 5.9 assists and 3.8 rebounds. And if this season weren’t dominated by so many great freshmen, we’d be hearing a lot more about Miami’s 6-foot-6 forward Shelton Henderson (14.0 points, 4.8 rebounds per game) being one of the nation’s best newbies. It would be great to see the Canes take on Louisville with the Cards at full strength, but it’s unclear whether freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr. will be available after missing Tuesday’s home win over Syracuse with back issues. That is of particular concern given that a back injury cost Brown eight games earlier this season. He was clearly hampered during the Cardinals’ 80-75 loss at Clemson last Saturday. My guess is that unless Brown is absolutely pain free, Pat Kelsey will want him to sit to make sure he is at his best for the postseason. Either way, Miami is coming in hot, and they’ll be tough to knock off at home.
Florida at Kentucky
Seth’s Analysis
The only thing consistent about Kentucky has been its inconsistency. The Wildcats rebounded from their three-game losing streak with comfortable wins over South Carolina and Vanderbilt, but then they were run off the court during their 96-85 loss at Texas Tech Tuesday night. The Aggies went on a 27-3 blitz beginning in the first half and coasted home. Kentucky’s weak three-point defense (the Aggies shot 46.4 percent) might not be as much of an issue against a Gators squad that ranks 329th nationally in that department at 30.9 percent, but Florida won their last two games over Arkansas and Mississippi State by 34 points — that’s each, not combined — and have seen a major confidence boost from 6-foot-4 senior Princeton transfer Xaivian Lee, who is averaging 14.9 points, 6.7 assists and 3.0 rebounds while shooting 38.2 percent from three over his last seven games. Kentucky is traditionally tough to beat in Rupp Arena and this is a pretty big point spread, but Florida is a far superior team.
Indiana at Ohio State
Seth’s Analysis
This might be the most bubblicious game of the day. Indiana might need this game a little bit more, but either way the loser will be on the wrong side of the cut line entering the Big Ten Tournament. Both teams are 2-10 in Quad 1 games but the Buckeyes are 6-1 in Quad 2 while the Hoosiers are 3-2. This is a Quad 2 game for Ohio State and a Quad 1 for Indiana. Hence, a must win for the Hoosiers, but unfortunately they are facing a Buckeyes squad that is gathering momentum down the stretch with wins over Purdue (home) and Penn State (road). Ohio State is fortunate that sophomore guard John Mobley only missed three games following hand surgery. He had a combined 49 points on 13 of 20 three-point shooting in those two wins. Indiana just drilled Minnesota at home by 30 points to snap a four-game losing streak that included a home loss to Northwestern. This line is a little bigger than I’d like, but the Buckeyes know they can’t lose this game, so I’ll ride the desperate home team.
North Carolina at Duke
Seth’s Analysis
I thought Tar Heels freshman forward Caleb Wilson was trending towards playing after missing the last six games with a broken hand. Then came the awful news that Wilson broke his right thumb during practice on Thursday and will miss the remainder of the season. Needless to say that’s a heartbreaking setback for the Tar Heels. They’ll miss Wilson while facing a Duke team that has steamrolled opponents by an average of 24.2 points in the seven games since its loss in Chapel Hill on Feb. 7. Freshman forward Cameron Boozer’s consistency has been remarkable — he has not had a remotely bad game — and Duke is benefiting from the steady improvement of role players like 6-foot-8 freshman forward Dame Sarr, who is coming off his best game of the season at N.C. State, where he had 16 points and 9 rebounds in a 93-64 win. All the signs point to a Duke romp, but as I said the last time they played, in this rivalry you have to expect the unexpected. I think the Tar Heels will at least keep this thing respectable.
Texas Tech at BYU
Seth’s Analysis
Texas Tech finally felt the impact of J.T. Toppin’s season-ending knee injury on Tuesday when the Red Raiders lost at home to TCU. The Horned Frogs crushed them on the backboards, where they collected 16 offensive rebounds. Grant McClasland is having to go deeper into his bench in Toppin’s absence, and though 6-foot-11 sophomore Luke Bamgboye and 6-foot8 sophomore Josiah Moseley are effective paint defenders, no one can come close to replacing Toppin’s 21.8 points, 10.8 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game, not to mention his leadership. BYU has had an even harder time replacing 6-foot-5 senior guard Richie Saunders, who tore an ACL in the opening minute of a Feb. 14 overtime win over Colorado. The Cougars have dropped four out of five since then, despite the continued brilliance of freshman forward A.J. Dybantsa, who has played all but nine minutes over the last five games and has averaged 27.2 points, 7.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists. The Cougars’ defense was never great to begin with, but without Saunders they are especially porous at that end. (BYU ranks No. 63 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.) There’s really not much reason to like BYU in this one other than it’s playing at home. Both teams need to reverse momentum, but the Red Raiders, who won the first meeting in Lubbock by 13 points, have the firepower to be able to do so.
Season total: 33-47
Meet your guide
