Bracketology 2026: Men’s NCAA Tournament Projections

We were able to get a little bit more clarity on the No. 1 seed line because Iowa State, Illinois and Purdue all lost last week. And, while the No. 1 seed line will likely be relatively simple to figure out, the teams at the back end of the No. 2 seed line all the way through the No. 4 seeds are getting so much closer. I feel very confident about the current top 16 teams as there has been some separation from them to teams on the No. 5 and No. 6 seed line.

Here are some thoughts regarding today’s bracket:

• What a weird week it’s been for Cal. The Golden Bears picked up a huge win early last week over SMU, which propelled them into the field, but then followed that up with a head-scratching loss at home to Pitt. The loss knocked Cal back out of the field and could ultimately end up being the reason it misses out on the NCAA Tournament altogether. The Golden Bears finish the regular season on the road at Georgia Tech and at Wake Forest. 
• New Mexico was one of the few bubble teams that added a quality win over the weekend as the Lobos upended San Diego State. The win improved their WAB ranking to No. 46 and also put them 8-6 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents. New Mexico ends the regular season with a game on Wednesday against Colorado State and on Saturday at Utah State. A win at Utah State could very well put the Lobos in really good shape to receive an at-large bid.
• Alabama now holds a top 10 WAB and SOR ranking after going on the road to defeat Tennessee on Saturday. The win elevated the Crimson Tide up to a No. 4 seed as they improved to 15-7 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents. This was a critical win for Alabama, as Tennessee is one of the teams it’s competing with for a top-four protected seed. Getting a road win now gives the Crimson Tide a significant advantage for remaining ahead of the Volunteers in the pecking order.
• Saint Mary’s locked up an at-large bid as it came out victorious against conference rival Gonzaga on Saturday night. Having quality metrics was always there for the Gaels, they just needed to add some wins over at-large teams. They also have a win over Santa Clara. I have elevated Saint Mary’s up to a No. 7 seed. Unless they win the WCC Tournament, there’s a good chance the Gaels will get passed by some power conference teams due to those teams having more needle-moving opportunities remaining.
• Texas is now 7-8 against Quad 1 opponents after going on the road and winning at fellow bubble team Texas A&M. I would consider the Longhorns safe right now and currently have them slotted in as a No. 9 seed. Texas finishes SEC play with games at Arkansas and at home against Oklahoma. The Longhorns will be an NCAA Tournament lock with one more win, but are still in relatively good shape should they go winless.
• Texas Tech continues to defy the odds with the absence of JT Toppin as it went to Iowa State on Saturday and totally dominated the Cyclones from start to finish. How the Red Raiders play without Toppin is crucial with determining how the selection committee will seed them. The committee revealed to us last week that they had Texas Tech as a No. 4 seed, so the win at Iowa State elevates them to a No. 3 seed.
• Ohio State beat Purdue on Sunday and improved to 8-11 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents. The Buckeyes entered the day with a top 45 WAB ranking and have a resume that is eerily similar to that of North Carolina from last season — a team that received an at-large bid. Ohio State ends Big Ten play with games at Penn State and against Indiana. I think if it is able to go 2-0, it likely will be enough to receive an at-large bid. The reason? Resume metrics.

Last 4 Byes

UCLA, Texas A&M, Ohio State, SMU

Last 4 In

TCU, Santa Clara, New Mexico, VCU

First 4 Out

California, Indiana, USC, Auburn

Next 4 Out

Virginia Tech, San Diego State, Seton Hall, Stanford

Bracketology

16 Howard Bison

16 Morehead State Eagles

11 VCU Rams

11 Santa Clara Broncos

16 UMBC Retrievers

16 Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

11 New Mexico Lobos

11 TCU Horned Frogs

Midwest (Chicago)

Philadelphia

1 Michigan Wolverines

16 Long Island Sharks

8 UCF Knights

9 NC State Wolfpack

Portland

5 North Carolina Tar Heels

12 South Florida Bulls

4 Alabama Crimson Tide

13 Utah Valley Wolverines

Tampa

6 BYU Cougars

11 Ohio State Buckeyes

3 Nebraska Cornhuskers

14 North Dakota State Bison

Oklahoma City

7 Louisville Cardinals

10 Texas A&M Aggies

2 Houston Cougars

15 Troy Trojans

South (Houston)

Philadelphia

1 UConn Huskies

16 Merrimack Warriors

8 Clemson Tigers

9 Missouri Tigers

Buffalo

5 Vanderbilt Commodores

12 Belmont Bruins

4 Kansas Jayhawks

13 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

Oklahoma City

6 Arkansas Razorbacks

11 VCU Rams / Santa Clara Broncos

3 Iowa State Cyclones

14 East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Buffalo

7 Saint Mary's Gaels

10 Georgia Bulldogs

2 Michigan State Spartans

15 Austin Peay Governors

West (San Jose)

San Diego

1 Arizona Wildcats

16 Howard Bison / Morehead State Eagles

8 Miami Hurricanes

9 Iowa Hawkeyes

Greenville

5 Tennessee Volunteers

12 Yale Bulldogs

4 Virginia Cavaliers

13 High Point Panthers

St. Louis

6 Kentucky Wildcats

11 TCU Horned Frogs / New Mexico Lobos

3 Purdue Boilermakers

14 Navy Midshipmen

Tampa

7 Saint Louis Billikens

10 UCLA Bruins

2 Florida Gators

15 Portland State Vikings

East (Washington, DC)

Greenville

1 Duke Blue Devils

16 Bethune-Cookman Wildcats / UMBC Retrievers

8 Villanova Wildcats

9 Texas Longhorns

Portland

5 St. John's Red Storm

12 Liberty Flames

4 Gonzaga Bulldogs

13 UNC Wilmington Seahawks

San Diego

6 Wisconsin Badgers

11 Miami Ohio Red Hawks

3 Texas Tech Red Raiders

14 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

St. Louis

7 Utah State Aggies

10 SMU Mustangs

2 Illinois Fighting Illini

15 Wright State Raiders

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