We’ve only got two more Saturdays remaining in the regular season, and your boy needs a strong finish. I’ll be honest, as prognosticators go, I’m barely a bubble team right now. But I’m in position to be in position, and I’m feeling lucky!
Play me or fade me, but we’ve got another great slate of games coming your way today. There are also lots of bubble matchups on the docket, but for our purposes let’s focus on the prime matchups. Let’s dig in and get ready for the Best Month of the Year.
Virginia at Duke
Seth’s Analysis
When Duke coach Jon Scheyer spoke to me and Andy Katz for The Hoops HQ Show this week, he talked about how he structured his roster to put an emphasis on size, length, defense and physicality. We don’t automatically think of those as “Duke” traits, but they were on vivid display during the Blue Devils’ 68-63 win over Michigan last Saturday, when the Blue Devils out-rebounded the Wolverines by 13, outscored them in the paint by 10 and held Michigan to 29 percent shooting in the second half. Virginia has the ability to compete with Duke on the toughness front. The Cavs are ranked No. 15 on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency, No. 4 in offensive rebound percentage, No. 2 in block percentage and No. 5 in two-point defense (44.8 percent). They have been remarkably consistent while compiling their 25-3 record, but they are flying under the national radar because they lack a signature win. Their best came on Jan. 13 at Louisville when the Cardinals were still playing without Mikel Brown Jr. I don’t envision the Cavs can pull off the upset in Cameron Indoor Stadium, especially with Duke playing so well, but I think they will be competitive.
Kansas at Arizona
Seth’s Analysis
There’s a major injury question regarding a star freshman in this game, but for once that isn’t about Darryn Peterson. Rather, it’s about Arizona freshman forward Koa Pea, who has missed the last three-and-a-half games with a lower leg injury. Peat has been steadily returning to practice the last few days, and there’s a good chance he’ll be good to go in this one. I’m sure the Wildcats would like to have him, but they’ve won all three games without him (including over BYU and at Houston), and they’ll have revenge on their minds considering the Jayhawks handed them their first loss in Allen Fieldhouse on Feb. 9. As for Peterson, he did play the last two games without having to take himself out, but he seemed off while scoring a combined 31 points on 12 of 31 shooting. That included going 1 for 7 from three in an embarrassing home loss to Cincinnati last Saturday. The other Jayhawks have shown their mettle, but as a team KU will have to play its best game of the season to win in McKale Center. I wish this point spread were a little smaller but I imagine Arizona will be in control throughout and cover on late free throws.
Texas Tech at Iowa State
Seth’s Analysis
When the NCAA men’s basketball committee revealed its top 16 seeds last Saturday, chairman Keith Gill said they dropped Texas Tech one seed line after junior forward J.T. Toppin suffered a season-ending ACL tear. At that point, the Red Raiders had yet to play a game without Toppin, but in winning two straight they’ve indicated that we should withold our judgments until we have more evidence. That is coming in Hilton Coliseum, where the Cyclones will put up a lot more resistance than the Red Raiders faced in wins over Kansas State and Cincinnati. Sophomore guard Christian Anderson was brilliant against the Bearcats Tuesday night, going for 31 points, 11 rebounds and 7 assists. It will be interesting to see how he fares against Iowa State’s lockdown defender, freshman guard Killyan Toure, and T.J. Otzelberger’s vaunted defense, which is ranked No. 7 in adjusted efficiency on KenPom. The Red Raiders have shown enough fight and resilience that I think they can make the Cyclones pull out a close win.
Villanova at St. John’s
Seth’s Analysis
How embarrassing was St. Johns’ 72-40 loss at UConn Wednesday night? So embarrassing that Rick Pitino said he will forego his legendary white suit even though the school is staging a “white out” for this game. I pity those poor players having to go to practice after scoring two — that’s right, two — field goals in the entire second half against the Huskies. The Red Storm were outscored 42-12 in the paint, so it will be their top priority to get back to fighting and competing. The Wildcats have done pretty well using a bruising style tailor made for the Big East, but they were no match for the Red Storm on Jan. 17 in Philly when St. Johns’ frontcourt trio of Zuby Ejiofor, Dillon Mitchell and Bryce Hopkins combined for 47 points and 23 rebounds in an 86-79 win. Nova has one of the top offensive rebounders in the country in 6-foot-10 senior forward Duke Brennan, and it’s a good sign that junior guard Bryce Lindsay might be breaking out of his protracted shooting slump. (He had 19 points in Wednesday’s 82-73 home win over Butler.) I’m actually surprised the point spread isn’t bigger given that this game is in the Garden and St. John’s is coming off an historically bad performance.
Arkansas at Florida
Seth’s Analysis
John Calipari wants to know why Darius Acuff Jr. isn’t more a part of the National Player of the Year conversation. That speaks more to the quality of the candidates than anything lacking with Acuff, but if Acuff wants to ramp up his candidacy, then leading the Razorbacks to a road win over the reigning champs is a good way to do it. The 6-foot-3 freshman from Detroit will be the best guard on the floor. He ranks eighth in the country in scoring at 22.2 points per game and leads the SEC in assists with 6.2 per game. And as he showed in Wednesday’s home win over Texas A&M, he is at his best when it matters most. Florida’s guards are playing better of late, but this team continues to butter its bread with the country’s best froncourt in Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, Ruben Chinyelu and Micah Handlogten. That correlates perfectly with Arkansas’ main weakness (the Hogs rank 14th in the SEC in two-point defense and 229th nationally in defensive rebound percentage, per KenPom), but Arkansas’ offensive pop, athleticism and ability to take care of the ball should produce a more competitive game than this point spread would portend.
Season total: 31-44
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