Bracketology: Men's 2026 Tournament Bubble Teams

Tuesday night ended up being a really fun night of bubble games. SMU, Georgia, UCF and Ohio State were the big winners, while UCLA, TCU and Virginia Tech all lost and have plenty of work to do down the stretch in order to receive an at-large bid. The bubble continues to remain tight, so any critical win by a bubble team can change everything. For me, the biggest win of Tuesday night was Georgia going to Rupp Arena to win at Kentucky. The Bulldogs were heading in a really bad direction the last few weeks, but this type of win puts them in really good position to receive an at-large bid.

On Friday, VCU heads to Saint Louis, a game that could have massive bubble implications. If the Rams are able to upset the Billikens, they will jump into the at-large field for the time being and will be a serious contender to remain there come Selection Sunday. Cannot wait for this matchup!

As we all have our eyes towards Selection Sunday, we remind you that the selection committee is looking for items on your resume that stand out. In an age where metrics are king, the most critical numbers to pay attention to are WAB (Wins Above Bubble) and SOR (Strength of Record), result-based metrics that evaluate every team throughout the season. No team was left out of the NCAA Tournament last year that had a WAB ranking of No. 40 or better and only one team received an at-large bid (Texas) that had a SOR ranking of No. 50 or worse. While this is just a small snapshot, it’s still useful information when evaluating resumes.

“Invitations Sent” are teams that are all but 100 percent assured of receiving an at-large bid even if they don’t win another game.

“Invitations Printed” are teams that are safely in the field for now, but still have work to do.

“On the List…for Now” are teams that are in the clear at the moment, but could fall out due to a couple of bad losses.

“The Uninvited” are teams that would be very unlikely to receive an at-large bid if the tournament field were selected today.

Before continuing, it’s important to note the following:

Result-Based Metrics (SOR, KPI, WAB): these metrics help determine inclusion into the field
Predictive Metrics (NET, BPI, Ken Pom, Torvik): these metrics play a role in the seeding of teams

Regarding the NET Quadrants, a Quad 1 game meets one of the following criteria:

A home game against an opponent ranked 1-30 in the NET
A neutral court game against an opponent ranked 1-50
An away game against an opponent ranked 1-75

First, here’s a real-time look at my cut line:

Last Four Byes

1.
Georgia Bulldogs
2.
Auburn Tigers
3.
Saint Mary’s Gaels
4.
USC Trojans

Last Four Teams In

1.
Missouri Tigers
2.
TCU Horned Frogs
3.
Santa Clara Broncos
4.
UCLA Bruins

First Four Teams Out

1.
New Mexico Lobos
2.
California Golden Bears
3.
Ohio State Buckeyes
4.
VCU Rams

Next Four Teams Out

1.
San Diego State Aztecs
2.
Virginia Tech Hokies
3.
Seton Hall Pirates
4.
West Virginia Mountaineers

ACC

Invitations Sent: Duke (No. 1 seed), Virginia (5), North Carolina (6)

Invitations Printed: Louisville (6), Clemson (6), NC State (8), Miami (9)

On the List…for Now: SMU (9)

The Uninvited: California (First 4 Out), Virginia Tech (Next 4 Out), Stanford

NC State

The Good: WAB: 35, SOR: 38, KPI: 26, wins at Clemson and SMU, beat UNC, 12-7 Quad 1/Quad 2, NCSOS: 61, 8-4 r/n record, Top 30 predictive metrics

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Georgia Tech

The Outlook: The Wolfpack beat North Carolina on Tuesday night and improved to 4-6 against Quad 1 opponents. This was a nice bounce back win after losing at home to Miami over the weekend. That being said, there has to be a little asterisk next to this win as the Tar Heels were missing Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesar. Regardless, this was still an important win to get NC State back on track.

Miami

The Good: SOR: 31, WAB: 30, 9-4 versus Quad 1/Quad 2, 7-3 r/n, beat UNC, Virginia Tech, won at NC State

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Florida St, 1-3 vs Quad 1A

The Outlook: The Hurricanes have won three games in a row over UNC, at NC State and Virginia Tech. Before this stretch of games, they had no wins over at-large teams. Now they have two. Miami has strong metrics and I think all it needs to do is avoid a loss at home to Boston College on Feb. 28 and it will likely receive an at-large bid.

SMU

The Good: no bad losses, wins over Louisville, UNC, Texas A&M (n), 12-8 versus Quad 1-Quad 3

The Bad: 1-4 against Quad 1A opponents

The Outlook: SMU had been trending in the wrong direction and headed into Tuesday night’s game against Louisville with an 0-4 record against Quad 1A opponents and just two wins over the field. The Mustangs picked up a very important win which moved them away from being on the bubble. SMU has a home contest against Boston College on Saturday. This will be a Quad 3 game, so a win here is necessary for the Mustangs to remain a single-digit seed.

California

The Good: 4-5 against Quad 1 opponents, beat UNC, UCLA (n), no Quad 3 or Quad 4 L’s

The Bad: 4-8 versus Quad 1/Quad 2, predictive metrics in 60’s, 0-3 vs Quad 2, NCSOS: No. 330

The Outlook: The Golden Bears beat Boston College over the weekend, but remain out of the field for the moment. They have a Quad 2 opportunity on Saturday against Stanford. It’s an important game because this team needs to continue to pile up Quad 1 or Quad 2 wins.

Virginia Tech

The Good: Beat Virginia, Cal, won at Clemson, KPI: 39

The Bad: 3-8 Quad 1, SOR: 53, 1-5 against Quad 1A opponents, predictive metrics in mid-60’s

The Outlook: The Hokies followed up a huge win at Clemson last week with a Quad 3 home loss to Florida State and a one-point loss at Miami. As a result, Virginia Tech is now out of the field. The Hokies still get to play at North Carolina and at Virginia and might need to win one of those in order to get back into serious consideration for an at-large bid.

BIG EAST

Invitations Sent: UConn (1)

Invitations Printed: St. John’s (5), Villanova (7)

On the List…for Now: None

The Uninvited: Seton Hall (Next 4 Out)

Seton Hall

The Good: beat NC State (n), no bad losses, 7-5 r/n

The Bad: only one win over an at-large team, WAB: 54, 6-8 Quad 1/Quad 2, 1-4 Quad 1, 0-3 Quad 1A

The Outlook: The Pirates won at Butler on Sunday, but unfortunately, the win only ended up being a Quad 2 win. It’s going to be hard to Seton Hall to break into the field unless it wins at UConn or beats St. John’s. That being said, all the Pirates should be focusing on now is DePaul on Wednesday. A loss to DePaul could cost them an at-large bid.

Big Ten

Invitations Sent: Michigan (1), Illinois (2), Purdue (2), Nebraska (3), Michigan State (4)

Invitations Printed: Wisconsin (7), Iowa (8)

On the List…for Now: USC (10), Indiana (Last 4 In), UCLA (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: Ohio State (First 4 Out)

Wisconsin

The Good: SOR: 31, WAB: 26, T-Rank: 23, won at Michigan and at Illinois, beat Michigan State, no bad losses

The Bad: 3-7 Quad 1

The Outlook: No team in the country has two better wins than the Badgers as they’ve beaten both Michigan and Illinois on the road. Beating Michigan State on Friday night put the Badgers on the precipice of becoming a lock. This is going to be an NCAA Tournament team. Wisconsin needs to continue to pile up quality wins in order to improve its overall seed.

Iowa

The Good: KenPom: 25, T-Rank: 27, SOR: 32, 8-6 Quad 1/Quad 2, won at Indiana, beat Nebraska, 6-5 r/n

The Bad: NCSOS: 260, Q3 loss at Maryland

The Outlook: Iowa has such dominant predictive metrics in large part to how it fared in nonconference play as the Hawkeyes beat their Quad 4 opponents by an average of 34.5 points per game. They added arguably their best win of the season on Tuesday over a Nebraska team that is projected to be a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

USC

The Good: SOR: 34, WAB: 32, won at Wisconsin, 9-6 Quad 1/Quad 2, 9-4 r/n

The Bad: 1-5 Quad 1A, 1-4 Quad 1, Ken Pom: 49, Quad 3 loss to Northwestern, two wins over at-large teams

The Outlook: A critical stretch awaits the Trojans as four of their final six games will be played at home. A win over Illinois on Wednesday will go a long way to securing a bid.

Indiana

The Good: WAB: 39, SOR: 38, T-Rank: 24, beat Purdue, won at UCLA, no bad losses

The Bad: 2-8 Quad 1, 4-9 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Outlook: The Hoosiers lost at Illinois on Sunday and now get to play at Purdue on Friday. If the Hoosiers lose at Purdue, they will drop to 4-10 against Quad 1 and Q2 opponents. That would be a problem. However, I said it last week and I’ll say it again, if Indiana is able to win the rest of its home games (Northwestern, Michigan State, Minnesota), I believe it will be playing in the NCAA Tournament.

UCLA

The Good: BPI: 35, WAB: 41, SOR: 43, beat Purdue

The Bad: only one win over an at-large team, KPI: 62, 1-7 Quad 1A

The Outlook: It wasn’t much of a surprise, but UCLA went 0-2 on its trip to Michigan and Michigan State and really wasn’t all that competitive. The Bruins are a team currently fighting for its NCAA Tournament lives. They finish the season with three of its final five games at home, including a date with Illinois on Saturday. A massive opportunity awaits to try and right the ship.

Ohio State

The Good: NET: 38, beat Wisconsin, UCLA, USC, no bad losses

The Bad: 0-8 Quad 1, 6-9 Quad 1/Quad 2, KPI: 60

The Outlook: All in all, Ohio State had a pretty good stretch as it was able to get wins over USC and Wisconsin. Unfortunately, losing to Virginia means the Buckeyes are still winless against Quad 1 opponents. Ohio State has quite done enough yet for a bid, but a big game looms on Sunday at Michigan State. Pull off the upset and enter the field.

Big 12

Invitations Sent: Arizona (1), Houston (2), Iowa State (2), Kansas (3), Texas Tech (4)

Invitations Printed: BYU (6), UCF (9)

On the List…for Now: TCU (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: West Virginia (Next 4 Out), Oklahoma State

UCF

The Good: Top 35 result-based metrics, 4-6 Quad 1, 13-7 Quad 1-Quad 3, beat Kansas, Texas Tech, TCU and won at Texas A&M

The Bad: Predictive metrics in the 50’s, NCSOS: 237

The Outlook: I’m more concerned about the Knights actual seed than I am about them receiving an at-large bid. UCF had a nice win over a surging TCU team on Tuesday night and really has put together a solid NCAA Tournament resume. The Knights predictive metrics are a flaw and they will certainly see the effects it has on their seed come Selection Sunday.

TCU

The Good: 5-7 Quad 1, beat Iowa State and Florida, Wisconsin on a neutral court

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Notre Dame, Quad 4 loss to New Orleans, KPI: 56

The Outlook: The two bad losses on the Horned Frogs resume stick out like a sore thumb. Especially the Quad 4 loss to New Orleans. However, TCU improved its overall resume by knocking off Iowa State and then by winning at Oklahoma State. The Horned Frogs lost at UCF on Tuesday night. This isn’t a bad loss, but it just halts a little bit of their momentum.

West Virginia

The Good: beat Kansas, won at UCF, no bad losses, BPI: 43

The Bad: only two wins over at-large teams, NCSOS: 276

The Outlook: The Mountaineers now have two quality wins on their resume after upsetting UCF on the road on Saturday. West Virginia suddenly has a pulse. It has a must-win game against Utah on Wednesday, followed by a critical bubble matchup on Saturday at TCU.

Oklahoma State

The Good: wins over Texas A&M, BYU and UCF, no bad losses

The Bad: 0-4 Quad 1A, 1-6 Quad 1, no key wins away from home, NCSOS: 289, poor predictive metrics

The Outlook: The Cowboys enter the week as my ninth team out of the field. After losing at home to TCU on Saturday, it feels like their chances are slipping away. Oklahoma State will host Kansas on Wednesday and a win is probably necessary in order to maintain relevance.

SEC

Invitations Sent: Florida (3), Vanderbilt (4), Alabama (4), Arkansas (5), Tennessee (5), Kentucky (7)

Invitations Printed: Texas A&M (9)

On the List…for Now: Texas (9), Auburn (10), Georgia (10), Missouri (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: None

Texas

The Good: WAB: 42, SOR: 42, Ken Pom: 29, 5-6 Quad 1, beat Vanderbilt, Georgia, NC State (n), won at Alabama and at Missouri

The Bad: KPI: 53, 7-8 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Outlook: The Longhorns have won six of their last seven games and are now in prime position to be in the NCAA Tournament. They picked up a solid road win at Missouri over the weekend and followed that up by beating LSU at home on Tuesday. I think Texas will lock up a bid with two more wins.

Georgia

The Good: SOR: 40, beat Arkansas, Auburn, won at Missouri, at Kentucky, 9-7 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Ole Miss, NCSOS: 302, 1-3 Quad 1A

The Outlook: Georgia upset Kentucky at Rupp Arena on Tuesday night in what will likely be the reason the Bulldogs are going dancing. This was a team that had been trending towards the bubble the last few weeks and needed a win like this to change the trajectory of its NCAA Tournament hopes.

Missouri

The Good: SOR: 41, BPI: 44, beat Florida, Auburn and won at Kentucky and at Texas A&M, no bad losses

The Bad: KPI: 55, Ken Pom: 54, 6-8 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Outlook: The Tigers suffered a home loss to Texas on Saturday, which dropped them to my last four in. A big week lies ahead for Missouri as it plays Vanderbilt on Wednesday and then heads to Arkansas on Saturday. Even if this team makes the NCAA Tournament, it seems destined to play in the First Four due to having very poor predictive metrics, relative to the rest of the bubble.

Other Candidates

Invitations Sent: Gonzaga (3)

Invitations Printed: Saint Louis (7), Utah State (8)

On the List…for Now: Saint Mary’s (10), Santa Clara (Last 4 In), Miami OH (auto)

The Uninvited: New Mexico (First 4 Out), VCU (First 4 Out), San Diego State (Next 4 Out)

Utah State

The Good: KPI: 21, 3-1 Quad 1, 8-2 Quad 1/Quad 2, won at New Mexico and at VCU, 11-2 r/n

The Bad: no wins over at-large teams, Quad 3 loss to UNLV

The Outlook: Utah State continues to be in good shape to receive an at-large bid. The key for the Aggies the rest of the way will be to avoid multiple Quad 3 or Quad 4 losses.

Saint Mary’s

The Good: Top 35 result-based metrics, Top 35 predictive metrics, 5-4 Quad 1/Quad 2, 8-4 r/n, beat Virginia Tech (n)

The Bad: no wins over at-large teams, 0-3 Quad 1, 17 of 21 wins against Quad 3 or Quad 4

The Outlook: Saint Mary’s still gets another opportunity against Gonzaga and Santa Clara at home. Winning one of these two games would be very helpful in its quest to lock up a bid.

New Mexico

The Good: Won at VCU, Beat Santa Clara, 7-5 Quad 1/Quad 2, KPI: 38, T-Rank: 43

The Bad: 1-4 Quad 1, maybe just one win over an at-large team, Quad 3 loss at New Mexico State, SOR: 52, BPI: 55

The Outlook: The Lobos endured a bad week going 0-2 against Utah State and Boise State at home. As a result, they fell out of the field. How can they get back in? Beat all the teams they are supposed to beat and get at least a split against San Diego State and at Utah State.

Miami (OH)

The Good: 23-0 against D-I teams, SOR: 25, WAB: 34, 1-0 Quad 2, 12-0 r/n

The Bad: NCSOS: 363, BPI: 88, zero Quad 1 games played, 22 of 23 D-I wins against Quad 3 or Quad 4

The Outlook: As the lone undefeated team remaining, the Red Hawks have one interesting resume. They would be the first team to ever receive an at-large bid without having even played a Quad 1 opponent. They had their toughest remaining game on the schedule at UMass on Tuesday and continued their winning ways. This team is trending towards going undefeated in the regular season.

Santa Clara

The Good: WAB: 40, SOR: 46, Ken Pom: 39, 7-5 Quad 1/Quad 2, beat Saint Mary’s

The Bad: Quad 4 loss to Loyola, 1-4 Quad 1, BPI: 51

The Outlook: The Broncos lost at home to Gonzaga on Saturday in what was a major missed opportunity. That Quad 4 loss to Loyola truly stands out on this resume, but their resume metrics are good enough to give them hope. One significant opportunity remains for Santa Clara as it heads to St. Mary’s next Wednesday.

San Diego State

The Good: WAB: 43, T-Rank: 36, beat New Mexico, 5-2 Quad 2

The Bad: no wins over at-large teams, 1-4 Quad 1, Quad 3 loss to Troy

The Outlook: The Aztecs are currently hovering on the wrong side of the bubble in large part because they haven’t beaten any teams in the field, plus the fact that they have a Quad 3 loss. Two critical opportunities remain on their schedule as they get Utah State at home and go to New Mexico the last week of February. Should San Diego State go 0-2 in these two games, it will not receive an at-large bid.

VCU

The Good: KPI: 37, BPI: 46, 4-2 Quad 2, no bad losses, beat Virginia Tech (n)

The Bad: 0-4 Quad 1, T-Rank: 56

The Outlook: VCU had a bit of a scare at home against George Washington on Tuesday, but it came away victorious. Assuming the Rams are able to continue their winning ways against teams they are supposed to beat, the only date that matters is Feb. 20. That’s when VCU plays at Saint Louis. In order to become a serious contender, I believe the Rams are going to need to beat the Billikens. If they are able to, their result-based metrics are in a place where they are good enough to warrant serious consideration for an at-large bid.

Meet your guide

Brad Wachtel

Brad Wachtel, Hoops HQ's lead Bracketologist, has two decades of experience projecting NCAA Tournament brackets. He has appeared on countless outlets, including the Field of 68, SiriusXM College Sports, the Sports Grid, the Asbury Park Press and the Newark Star-Ledger. He is a former men's basketball administrator at Rutgers and director of operations for The Hoop Group.

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