Things are about to get real. Duke-Carolina tips off tonight, the Super Bowl kicks off tomorrow, and from that point it’s all hoops, all the time, with a healthy dose of bracketology and bubble talk mixed in. Are you ready for some Madness?
We’ve got lots of great games on tap for today and tonight, most prominently that traditional tilt in Chapel Hill. Here are my picks against the spread for the day’s best matchups.
Alabama at Auburn
Seth’s Analysis
Give the Crimson Tide credit for rebounding from their humiliating 23-point loss at Florida by knocking off league leader Texas A&M 100-97 on Wednesday. Stylistically, it was a comfortable matchup since the Aggies love to run and gun just as much as Alabama does. Defense was optional as Texas A&M shot 49.2 percent, but the Tide drained 16 three-pointers (on 48 attempts) to Texas A&M’s 13, and that gave Bama the margin it needed. Going on the road against a physical rival, however, is likely to expose Alabama’s defensive deficiencies (No. 71 on KenPom in adjusted efficiency) and lack of rebounding (No. 287 in defensive rebound percentage). Auburn ranks No. 2 on KenPom in free throw rate and No. 14 in offensive rebound percentage, and the Tigers will be in a bad mood coming off their 77-69 loss at Tennessee last Saturday. Throw in the fact that Auburn did not have a midweek game and is playing its biggest rival at home, and it feels like it could be a rough ride for the Tide.
Duke at North Carolina
Seth’s Analysis
As I said during our Hoops HQ Show interview with Grant Hill, the history of this rivalry teaches that whatever is “supposed” to happen, we should expect the opposite. That bodes well for the Tar Heels, who have been on a nice little four-game win streak since getting swept in the Bay Area in mid-January. That includes a decisive 85-80 road win at Virginia, and though North Carolina got sloppy down the stretch on Monday night against Syracuse, the Tar Heels did own a 32-point lead midway through the second half. No team has been able to collar Cam Boozer and I don’t expect North Carolina to be the first, but in 6-foot-10 freshman forward Caleb Wilson, 7-foot junior forward Henri Veesaar and 6-foot-10 junior forward Jarin Stevenson, the Tar Heels do have the type of personnel that bother Boozer. UNC rank sNo. 5 in the country in two-point defense (44.0). Duke, of course, doesn’t have a discernible weakness. The Blue Devils and Arizona are the only teams ranked in the top five on KenPom in both offensive and defensive efficiency (though Iowa State is sixth in both). The Blue Devils are also the second-tallest team in the country. The only question I would have with this team is that there hasn’t been one single Robin to emerge alongside Boozer’s Batman, but this team is one possession away from being undefeated, so they have done a great job figuring things out. Still, this is a big rivalry with a healthy point spread on the road. I’ll lean towards a close game, if not the moneyline upset.
Illinois at Michigan State
Seth’s Analysis
Even as the Spartans were racking up wins, it felt as if their offensive limitations would someday catch up with them. That finally happened as Michigan State needed overtime to win at Rutgers and then lost two straight to Michigan home and at Minnesota on Wednesday. If the defense isn’t peaking — as was the case when the Gophers shot 47.8 percent and 47.6 percent from three — then this team is vulnerable. On top of that, the Spartans are facing some additional drama as point guard Jeremy Fears, who has otherwise had a fabulous season, has developed a reputation for dirty play. You can give Dusty May an assist for alerting the refs, but Fears is doing much of the damage to himself. That could be a problem against a surging Illinois squad that has won 12 straight and has an elite guard of its own in freshman Keaton Wagler, who is averaging 21.3 points (on 47.6 percent three-point shooting) to go along with 5.3 assists (to just 1.9 turnovers) and 4.3 rebounds in Big Ten play. Wagler has been especially brilliant since 6-foot-2 senior guard Kylan Boswell was lost to a broken hand three weeks ago. It’s clear that Illinois is the better team, but there’s a reason the Spartans are favored. The game is in East Lansing, the home team is desperate to bounce back, and they’ve got a Hall of Fame coach to ensure it will happen.
Tennessee at Kentucky
Seth’s Analysis
If there was any doubt that Tennessee freshman Nate Ament is an elite talent (and there never was from me), he erased it in recent weeks. The 6-foot-10 forward has averaged 22.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.3 assists over his last seven games, and it’s no coincidence the Volunteers won five of them. That includes Tuesday’s 84-66 shredding of Ole Miss in Knoxville, where Ament poured in 28 points to go along with 6 rebounds and 4 assists. Kentucky is also playing much better of late, having won seven of its last eight games, including an 85-77 victory at Arkansas last Saturday. The Wildcats have suffered through an injury-riddled season, but at least they have more clarity on who is available game to game. They are also getting much improved production from 6-foot-6 senior guard Otega Oweh, who has been attacking the rim more often instead of settling for fallaway jumpers. Oweh scored 20 or more points in eight of his last 10 games, and over that span he is averaging 7.5 free throws. I know it hasn’t been an easy season in Lexington, but I think the Wildcats will rise to the occasion.
Houston at BYU
Seth’s Analysis
I took some heat from BYU fans when I pointed out that they had not played super tough competition during their 16-1 start. The Cougars have gotten exposed while losing four of their last five games, including Wednesday’s 99-92 loss at unranked Oklahoma State. Part of the issue is they are not getting enough offensive production beyond their Big Three of Robert Wright, Richie Saunders and A.J. Dybantsa, but the far greater problem is porous defense. Since Jan. 1, the Cougars’ defense has been 96th nationally in adjusted efficiency, per BartTorvik, and they gave up 52 points in the paint to the Cowboys. Opponents have scored 91.7 points per game during their current three-game win streak. Normally I would look for a team to bounce back at home, but Houston recently had its program-record 16-game road win streak snapped. After thrashing Cincinnati and UCF at home by a combined 46 points, the Cougars look like a runaway freight train.
Last Week: 2-3
Season total: 24-36
Meet your guide
