Bubble Watch 2026: Every School on the NCAA Tournament Guest List

“Invitations Sent” are teams that are all but 100 percent assured of receiving an at-large bid even if they don’t win another game.

“Invitations Printed” are teams that are safely in the field for now, but still have work to do.

“On the List…for Now” are teams that are in the clear at the moment, but could fall out due to a couple of bad losses.

“The Uninvited” are teams that would be very unlikely to receive an at-large bid if the tournament field were selected today.

Before continuing, it’s important to note the following:

• Result-Based Metrics (SOR, KPI, WAB): these metrics help determine inclusion into the field
• Predictive Metrics (NET, BPI, Ken Pom, Torvik): these metrics play a role in the seeding of teams

Regarding the NET Quadrants, a Quad 1 game meets one of the following criteria:

• A home game against an opponent ranked 1-30 in the NET
• A neutral court game against an opponent ranked 1-50
• An away game against an opponent ranked 1-75

First, here’s a real-time look at my cut line:

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ACC

Invitations Sent: Duke (No. 1 seed)

Invitations Printed: Virginia (4), North Carolina (5), Clemson (6), Louisville (6)

On the List…for Now: NC State (8), SMU (9), California (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: Virginia Tech (First 4 Out), Miami FL (First 4 Out), Stanford

NC State: The Wolfpack had been on the bubble for awhile and then they decided to win five games in a row in ACC play, including road wins at Clemson and at SMU. This is a team that is still technically on the bubble, but also a team likely to make the tournament. NC State is 11-5 against Q1 and Q2 opponents and possess top 25 predictive metrics which will really give a nice boost to its seeding.

SMU dropped two of its last three games and five of eight. The Mustangs still remain on the right side of the bubble as they have wins over UNC, Virginia Tech and against Texas A&M on a neutral court. They also have top 40 result-based metrics. What’s going to be key for SMU is to avoid the bad losses. The Mustangs play at Pitt on Saturday and then get Notre Dame at home on Tuesday. A loss to ND would be a Q3. Must avoid that.

Cal has won four of its last five games after dropping three of four. Some of those wins included beating UNC and road wins over Stanford and Miami (FL). The Golden Bears will face Clemson on Saturday. As one of the last four teams in my current field, beating the Tigers would be a nice step to remain in the field, with the potential to move up a seed.

Virginia Tech had been in my field for the last several weeks as it got off to a really nice start to the season. The problem is, the Hokies have not done much of late and are now in my first four out. They did beat Virginia, Cal and George Mason at home which are good wins, but they have not beaten any tournament-bound teams away from home. And when you’re situated on the bubble, your resume gets picked apart. Sporting just the No. 52 SOR, the Hokies could really use a quality win. They head to NC State on Saturday. A win over the Wolfpack puts Virginia Tech back in the field.

Miami (FL) is another team that had been in the field for quite some time, but have now slid out. How come? Well, when you really start to look closer at its resume, you’ll notice one thing missing. And that’s zero wins over projected at-large teams. That’s a problem. The Hurricanes also have a bad loss to Florida State at home. And, yes, while the Seminoles have improved, it’s still a Q3 loss. Next two games are at BC on Saturday and UNC at home on Tuesday. Win both and they’ll be back in the field.

Big East

Invitations Sent: UConn (1)

Invitations Printed: St. John’s (6), Villanova (7)

On the List…for Now: None

The Uninvited: Seton Hall (Next 4 Out), Georgetown, Butler, Creighton

Seton Hall remains in prime bubble contention, but the problem is that the Big East provides limited opportunities. The Pirates enter the weekend with result-based metrics in the mid-50’s and only one win over a likely at-large team (NC State). Losers of five of their last seven games, it’s time for this team to start to show what they’re made of and play like they did at the start of the season. They head to Creighton on Saturday which goes down as a Q2, but would help this mediocre resume nonetheless. I think Seton Hall likely needs to finish 12-8 in Big East play to have a fighting chance at a bid. Opportunities at UConn and against St. John’s remain.

Georgetown (yes, Georgetown) actually remains in play for a bid thanks to reeling off four consecutive wins. The Hoyas have a ton of work to do, but (unlike some teams) actually have the opportunities to improve their profile immensely. Georgetown gets Villanova on Saturday and then goes to UConn next Saturday. They still also get to play at Seton Hall and at St. John’s. While the Hoyas resume-metrics are just in the mid-70’s, they do have a win over Clemson back in November and have the chance to rewrite the entire season over the next few weeks.

A few weeks ago, I thought Butler could be a team that could make a nice run at an at-large bid as it already had wins over Virginia and at Seton Hall. Unfortunately, the Bulldogs are in the midst of a three-game losing streak and just 4-8 in Big East play. With metrics in the mid-70’s, they still get another crack at UConn and Villanova, as well as Seton Hall. Butler is on the precipice of being done for good, but there’s a little glimmer of hope remaining if it can go on a run.

The only reason Creighton has any hope for a bid is thanks to its win at Villanova. Other than that, the Blue Jays are just 1-7 Q1 and 3-9 versus Q1 and Q2 combined. This is another Big East team coming off three straight losses and time is running out. Creighton has to beat Seton Hall on Saturday to keep its name on this list.

Big Ten

Invitations Sent: Michigan (1), Illinois (2), Nebraska (2), Purdue (3), Michigan St (3)

Invitations Printed: None

On the List…for Now: Iowa (8), Wisconsin (9), USC (10), Indiana (10), UCLA (11)

The Uninvited: Ohio State (First 4 Out), Washington

Iowa is beginning to heat up as it’s won five games in a row with wins at Indiana and over USC. The Hawkeyes enter the weekend with a top 30 SOR and WAB which is critically important. They are also 7-5 against Q1 and Q2 opponents and 15-0 versus Q2 through Q4. All of these are great. However, while they’ve beaten some bubble teams, they don’t have any wins over tournament locks. That’s what I’m looking for from them to be considered a near lock. Their next two games are against bottom feeders Northwestern and Maryland, but they will get Purdue and Nebraska at home the following week. Even winning one of those two would be very helpful.

Wisconsin has one significant item on its resume that nobody else in the country has. And that is a win at Michigan. Barring some Q3 or Q4 losses, that win over the Wolverines should carry the Badgers to an at-large bid, but obviously you never know what could happen with bid-stealers, etc. so it would still be wise to continue to build up that resume. Two excellent chances on the horizon as Wisconsin heads to Indiana on Saturday and Illinois on Tuesday. The seed ceiling for the Badgers remains high thanks to numerous opportunities that remain.

USC completed a home sweep of Rutgers and Indiana over the last week. Two games that the Trojans maintained big leads, but then nearly blew down the stretch. They continue to hold steady in the field, in large part due to their upset at Wisconsin and strong start to the season in Maui. However, more work needs to be done. Need to keep the momentum going on Sunday when they head to Penn State.

Indiana rejoined the field after beating Purdue and winning at UCLA last week. Two pivotal wins that changed the entire complexion of the Hoosiers resume. Now, Indiana is just 2-8 against Q1 opponents and just 3-8 versus Q1 and Q2. The Hoosiers do have a top 45 SOR and WAB, but there is still lots of work that needs to be done. With all that being said, I think if Indiana is capable of winning all of its home games down the stretch (Wisconsin, Oregon, Northwestern, Michigan State, Minnesota), I do believe we will see them as an at-large bid.

What’s keeping UCLA in the field right now is its win over Purdue. The Bruins resume-metrics as a whole are just okay and they have yet to run into a bad loss. They added an important win over Rutgers on Tuesday. A loss definitely would have knocked them out. It will surely be noted that Skyy Clark has been out since 1/3 with an injury and we don’t know when he will be returning yet, but UCLA needs to add some more quality wins to justify receiving an at-large bid.

Ohio State is another one of these teams we see with at-large bid worthy predictive metrics, but just not a lot of substance on its actual resume. The Buckeyes are 0-6 versus Q1 opponents and the only at-large candidate team they’ve beaten is UCLA at home. The great part for the Buckeyes sake is their upcoming stretch of games. They get Michigan, USC, Virginia, Wisconsin, at Michigan State, at Iowa and Purdue. So, yeah we will find out whether or not this is an NCAA Tournament caliber team during this gauntlet of a stretch.

Big 12

Invitations Sent: Arizona (1), Iowa State (2), Houston (2)

Invitations Printed: Kansas (3), Texas Tech (4), BYU (5)

On the List…for Now: UCF (9), Oklahoma State (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: West Virginia, TCU, Baylor

UCF is in very good shape to receive an at-large bid. The Knights have strong wins over Texas Tech, Kansas and at Texas A&M. They possess top 25 resume-metrics and have yet to accrue a Q2, Q3 or Q4 loss. So why do I only have them as a No. 9 seed? All you need to look at are their predictive metrics (BPI: 52, POM: 45, T-Rank: 47). These will really limit their seed ceiling. In a sense, it’s a bit unfair because UCF isn’t really blowing many teams out in each win, which is directly reflected in these numbers. As a result, this is a team that could end up with a resume comparable to that of a No. 5 or 6 seed, but could end up with a No. 8, 9 or 10 seed when it’s all said and done instead.

Oklahoma State is coming off a really nice win over BYU and moved in as one of my last four teams in the field as a result. The Cowboys have top 40 result-based metrics and are 7-6 against Q1 and Q2 opponents. An area of improvement that this team needs is being able to win some road games in Big 12 play. So far, their only road win is over Utah, a team not being considered for an at-large bid. Oklahoma State heads on the road on Saturday against No. 1 Arizona and on Tuesday versus Arizona State. Now, I don’t expect them to win at Arizona, but a win at Arizona State would still be quality (likely Q2) and useful to improve its overall resume.

West Virginia (NET: 62, WAB: 58) has a resume that doesn’t stand out right now. The Mountaineers have a nice win over Kansas, but that’s pretty much it. However, on the positive side, they also have won all the games they’re supposed to win. The key for them now is to pick off a couple teams they’re not supposed to beat. Playing in the Big 12 helps with these opportunities. West Virginia gets Texas Tech on Sunday and goes to UCF next Saturday. Go 2-0 and we’ll see this squad make its debut in the field. Bottom line, this team certainly still remains alive.

TCU is still hanging around for an at-large bid and has a resume containing a little bit of everything. Strong neutral court wins over Florida and Wisconsin back in November, a Q4 loss to New Orleans back on first day of the season and just a 6-8 record against Q1-Q3 opponents. The Horned Frogs result-based metrics are hovering are No. 60, which leaves them not much margin for error. Home contests against Kansas State and Iowa State are on tap. Winning both would be a very nice boost.

Baylor has won two in a row to keep its slim chance of receiving an at-large bid on the table. The Bears are just 3-7 in Big 12 play, but what’s keeping them alive is the fact that they have road wins over Oklahoma State and West Virginia and also a neutral court win over San Diego State. These wins won’t blow anyone away, but the fact that they came away from home definitely matters. No better time to go on a run then now, as Baylor goes to Iowa State on Saturday and will then face BYU and Louisville at home.

SEC

Invitations Sent: None

Invitations Printed: Vanderbilt (3), Florida (4), Tennessee (5), Alabama (5), Arkansas (6), Kentucky (7), Texas A&M (7), Auburn (8)

On the List…for Now: Georgia (9), Texas (10)

The Uninvited: Missouri (First 4 Out), Ole Miss, LSU

Georgia enters the weekend in decent shape, but far from anything to feel safe about. The Bulldogs are 3-4 vs Q1 opponents with key wins over Arkansas, Auburn and at Missouri. They also have a home loss to Ole Miss, which is considered a Q3 at the moment. The selection committee has been a big proponent of using WAB and that ranking currently sits at No. 45 which isn’t particularly great (but good enough) when compared to the rest of the bubble. Georgia played very poor non-conference schedule (No. 314) and was able to juice up some of its metrics during these games. Plenty of opportunities remain, but it’s time to start adding some more quality to its resume. The Bulldogs go to LSU on Saturday, before heading back home to face Florida on Tuesday. Every game is big.

Well, it’s another year of Texas having a wild resume. The Longhorns have some excellent wins to boast as they’ve beaten Vanderbilt, Georgia, NC State and won at Alabama. The high-end wins are there, but the problem with their resume are their result-based metrics. They have a SOR and WAB ranking hovering around No. 50 and a KPI ranking of No. 64. Each of these rankings are worse than every other at-large team at the moment. They also have a Q3 loss. I can definitely see this team ending up with an at-large bid come March, but the Longhorns will also likely have more losses than any other at-large team if this pace continues. I think 4-4 down the stretch ultimately gets Texas in the field. Anything worse and I don’t think it happens.

Missouri checks in as one of my first four teams out of the field, but the Tigers are right there on the cut line for me. This is a resume that is somewhat comparable to that of Texas, but nine of their 14 wins have come against Q4 opponents. Missouri is just 4-7 versus Q1 and its overall resume metrics (SOR: 45, WAB: 48, KPI: 59) are just slightly worse than other bubble teams. The Tigers just need to continue to build up Q1 or Q2 wins. They head to South Carolina on Saturday in a game that is just as important as any other game on their schedule.

Other Candidates

Invitations Sent: Gonzaga (4)

Invitations Printed: None

On the List…for Now: Saint Louis (7), Utah State (9), Saint Mary’s (10), New Mexico (11), Miami (OH)

The Uninvited: San Diego State, Santa Clara, VCU

Saint Louis is a team that’s going to be in the NCAA Tournament. The Billikens have won 16 games in a row and hold quality wins over Santa Clara and at VCU. The only reason I don’t call them a lock just yet is because of the potential landmines on their remaining schedule. While nobody expects them to lose any, they still have four Q3 or Q4 games left. Assuming everything continues to go the way it’s been going, we will see Saint Louis as a single digit seed with the possibility of getting as high as a No. 4 or 5 seed.

While not at the same level as Saint Louis, Utah State is another team that will likely see its name called on Selection Sunday. The Aggies have wins over VCU and at New Mexico and are top 30 in the majority of metrics listed on the team sheet. The home Q3 loss to UNLV hurts a bit, but as long as they can avoid any more bad losses, they should be in good position.

Saint Mary’s heads into the weekend with top 40 resume metrics and a neutral court win over Virginia Tech. This is another team that is likely going to receive an at-large bid, but I am implore this squad to not lose any Q3 or Q4 games. The Gaels get Gonzaga one more time in the regular season and a win over the Zags would give them a good chance at not only receiving an at-large bid, but also getting a single digit seed.

New Mexico is currently on the edge of the bubble with top 50 overall metrics and a 6-4 record against Q1 and Q2 opponents. A massive missed opportunity versus Utah State on Wednesday leaves the Lobos with little margin for error. They still get games against San Diego State and at Utah State towards the end of the season and I would advise them win at least one of those.

Miami (OH) is 23-0 on the season (20-0 vs D1 opponents). The question is, what do the Red Hawks need to do in order to get an at-large bid? Well, they currently have top 30 overall result-based metrics which definitely puts them in play for an at-large bid right now. The problem is, the NCAA Tournament doesn’t begin today. With each loss, comes an uphill battle to achieve an at-large bid. I do think Miami (OH) would get an at-large bid if it finishes with one loss. Two losses? I think it’s probable, but certainly not definite. If the Red Hawks finish with three losses they won’t receive an at-large bid.

In terms of Santa Clara, San Diego State and VCU it’s relatively simple. Keep winning. Each one of these teams has critical opportunities remaining. Santa Clara gets to face Gonzaga and play on the road at St. Mary’s, San Diego State gets Utah State at home and New Mexico on the road and VCU is going need a win at St. Louis in order to really boost its chances for an at-large bid.

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