Aside from a loaded Saturday (please don’t ask how I did on my picks), it was a relatively quiet week in college hoops. We did, however, see a loss taken by my No. 1 team, so that will naturally produce a change at the top. Plus, I had plenty of other movements in the various metric ratings to consider. When you’re an AP Top 25 voter, every week of the college basketball season is the most wonderful time of the year.
Things will be especially quiet this week as the sport shuts down for Christmas. In the meantime, I’ve got another ranking to stuff your stocking. As always, I relied on three main metrics: KenPom (a predictive metric which includes data from last season), BartTorvik (filtered to include only this year’s games) and BartTorvik’s Wins Above Bubble. Each team’s rank in those metrics are listed in order. The number in parentheses reflects last week’s rank on my ballot.
Here, once again, is the (correct) order of the top 25 teams in men’s college basketball, as filed to the Associated Press on Sunday evening.
DROPPED OUT: Auburn (18), Clemson (23)
ALMOST FAMOUS: Iowa (19-11-29), Seton Hall (43-35-19), Indiana (27-17-63), Villanova (28-37-35), Utah State (29-27-20), Baylor (32-45-39), UCLA (31-36-52), Saint Mary’s (34-30-32), Saint Louis (35-21-34), LSU (36-29-30), USC (39-38-15)
Notes on the Votes
• Clearly Duke had to drop from No. 1 following its loss to Madison Square Garden. I had to factor in that the Red Raiders had not exactly been lighting the world on fire (they had yet to beat a top-30 KenPom team and to drilled by Purdue by 30 points), and that Texas Tech was playing shorthanded. Plus, the Blue Devils blew a 17-point second-half lead. There are worse crimes than losing to a good team by one point, so as usual I leaned on the metrics. Those rankings might dictate that Duke should be ranked behind Gonzaga, but given that the Zags lost to Michigan by 30 points on a neutral court, I decided to install the Blue Devils one spot ahead. Duke has 11 days to stew on that loss before it hosts Georgia Tech to tip off ACC season.
• Houston solidified its standing as a top-10 team by beating Arkansas, 94-85, in Newark. The Cougars have quietly played kind of a meh schedule, though they did play in the Players Era Festival, where they suffered their only loss of the season to Tennessee. So Saturday’s game was something of a benchmark and they cleared it with ease. This is yet another elite defensive team coached by Kelvin Sampson, and it appears the offense is starting to catch up. (Though that No. 348 ranking on KenPom in offensive free throw rate needs to be corrected.) The Cougars’ Big 12 schedule is backloaded, so you can expect them to rack up wins and climb the polls over the next four weeks.
• BYU is another highly-ranked team that has played a low-key weak schedule. The Cougars’ are a two-point loss at UConn away from being undefeated, but their best win the season opener over Villanova in Las Vegas. They, too, open Big 12 play against the bottom-tier teams. Their next big teest is Jan. 26 at home against Arizona, followed by a trip to Allen Fieldhouse on Jan. 31.
• Speaking of Kansas, I continue to be more bullish on the Jayhawks than many others — assuming, that is, that at some point Darryn Peterson will be back, healthy, and effective. Without him in the lineup, Bill Self has put together a championship-level defense. The offense has lagged, but that won’t be the case if Peterson is playing. Their metrics justify where I ranked them, but they’ve got room to grow if and when he returns.
• I’ve been generous towards North Carolina in anticipation that Seth Trimble would be back. He returned for Saturday’s game against Ohio State, and the Heels needed every one of his 17 points to squeak out a 71-70 win. That No. 12 Wins Above Bubble rank is a strong tell that North Carolina is very much in position to challenge Duke and Louisville for ACC supremacy.
• And let’s give a hearty welcome back to Kentucky, which earned its place by knocking off St. John’s in Atlanta. We’ve been saying for a while that this team wasn’t good enough to beat good teams at less than full strength. Well, the Wildcats are finally healthy, and on Saturday they gave a glimpse of what’s possible. It’s too early to tell whether the 78-66 comeback win happened because Kentucky was so good or St. John’s was so mediocre, but we’ll know a lot more about these Wildcats when they open up SEC play Jan. 3 at Alabama.
• Texas Tech had remained at No. 19 in the AP poll, but I haven’t ranked the Red Raiders in a couple of weeks. That obviously needed to change after their stirring win over the Blue Devils. This team would be much improved if 6-foot-11 sophomore forward Luke Bamgboye gets healthy, but he is out with a lower body injury and it’s not yet clear when he’s coming back.
• I know I’m going to regret this, but despite Vanderbilt’s sky-high metrics, and despite the Commodores’ total domination of Wake Forest on Sunday, I still have a hard time ranking them higher given that they still don’t have a win over a top-30 KenPom team. They’ll try for one on Jan. 7 when they host Alabama in Nashville. I wouldn’t be surprised if they win a bunch of games and vault into my top 10, but they have to earn that first.
• It seems every year I have a revolving-door team, and this season it’s Auburn. The in-again, out-again Tigers are out again following their 88-60 loss to Purdue in Indianapolis. That was their third loss by 19 or more points. I’ll be interested to see how they fare Jan. 3 at Georgia.
• Clemson didn’t lose, but its 33-33-49 metrics profile can no longer be dismissed. KenPom has the Tigers favored in their first 12 ACC games. If they play to the numbers, they’ll have a number next to their name real soon.
• As for my Almost Famous group, I came real close to ranking Iowa, but its No. 29 Wins Above Bubble ranking was just low enough to keep the Hawkeyes off. A win at home over UCLA on Jan. 3 wouldn’t definitely make me rank Iowa, but it would help.
• I really wanted to rank Seton Hall, and the No. 19 Wins Above Bubble ranking shows the Pirates are definitely worth considering. They are one two-point loss to USC in Maui away from being undefeated. On the other hand, their best win was against N.C. State on a neutral court. The Big East is not going to afford many big-win opportunities, but if the Pirates keep stringing together victories, they will force me to rank ’em. I’ll be very interested to see how they fare against Villanova at home on Tuesday night given that the Wildcats are 9-2 and just knocked off Wisconsin in Milwaukee on Friday night.
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