At this point in the 2025-26 college basketball season, every conference has played at least a handful of league games, giving us a better look at which teams are actual contenders or pretenders. Of course, there are a number of programs currently in the “pretender” category after a rough couple of weeks against same-level competition.
For a closer look at those and other programs that have been showing glaring warning signs as of late, here is a new list of 10 programs in danger of seeing their campaigns fall apart.
1. North Carolina Tar Heels
Record: 14-4 (2-3 ACC)
Ranked as high as 12th in the AP poll this season and starting out the year 13-1 overall, it looked as if the Tar Heels and coach Hubert Davis would be above any concern. However, they’ve lost three of the last four games, including getting swept out west on the Stanford/Cal road trip. The defense has collapsed, with the last four games (90 points per game allowed) representing the four highest point totals allowed all season. If things don’t improve at that end soon, UNC could be in danger of missing out on the Big Dance.
2. Oklahoma Sooners
Record: 11-7 (1-4 SEC)
There are three teams at the bottom of the SEC standings. Two of them (LSU and South Carolina) were expected, but the Sooners, having lost their last four games, are right there with them. Yes, home losses to Florida and Alabama are forgivable, but the SEC is tough, so Oklahoma has to win some of these games at home to have a resume good enough for the postseason. The next two games will define their season: must-win road battles against Missouri and South Carolina.
3. St. Bonaventure Bonnies
Record: 11-7 (0-5 Atlantic 10)
In a conference that has the lowly Loyola Chicago Ramblers, the biggest disappointment to start league play has actually been the Bonnies, who sit dead last in the A-10 standings (thanks in large part to losses to La Salle and Fordham). A major problem has emerged: the regression of 6-foot-10 sophomore forward Joseph Grahovac, who is playing just 15 minutes per game in league play and averaging 1.8 points. With him being a non-factor, St. Bonaventure is now plauged by a lack of depth.
4. Indiana Hoosiers
Record: 12-6 (3-4 Big Ten)
The Hoosiers have now lost three straight games, including a 17-point home defeat to Iowa this past weekend. Yes, losses to Michigan State and Nebraska are fine, but the biggest issue for the program is that they still don’t have any key wins this season, with the three Big Ten victories (Maryland, Penn State, Washington) coming against the bottom of the conference. With contests against Michigan and Purdue and the Los Angeles road trip coming up, things could get even more dire for Indiana.
5. Syracuse Orange
Record: 12-6 (3-2 ACC)
It’s rare for a single loss to put a team in potential downfall territory. But losing in overtime to Boston College, one of the worst high-major teams this season, has now intensified the heat on coach Red Autry and the Orange. The other three ACC wins (Pitt, Georgia Tech, Florida State) are against the bottom of the conference, raising questions about how good this team actually is. We’ll know this upcoming week, with the Orange taking on Miami and Syracuse at home in must-win games.
6. NC State Wolfpack
Record: 12-6 (3-2 ACC)
Continuing the trend of horrific ACC losses last weekend was the Wolfpack, which suffered a Quad 4 home defeat against Georgia Tech. Six-foot-6 senior forward Darrion Williams had just seven points on 2 of 11 shooting in the loss, continuing his up-and-down play in the past month. NC State can’t afford for him not to play well. The Pack are next on the road at Clemson and Pitt, with the matchup against Clemson presenting a huge Quad 1 opportunity.
Kentucky and St. John's Climb. UNC Stumbles.
Jan 19: Iowa State, North Carolina and Tennessee all tumble, while Kentucky and St. John’s rise up the seed list.
7. Georgetown Hoyas
Record: 9-9 (1-6 Big East)
It’s now five straight losses for the Hoyas, though they have been very competitive, including a two-point home defeat to UConn. But the warning signs aren’t for Georgetown’s postseason hopes — they are flashing for the job status of head coach Ed Cooley. If the Hoyas continue to slide, the temperature under Cooley will only rise. This week will be a tough task to get a win, with road matchups against Villanova and Providence.
8. TCU Horned Frogs
Record: 11-7 (1-4 Big 12)
The Horned Frogs have lost four games in a row, with three of them (Kansas, BYU and Utah) coming down to the wire. Including the earlier Michigan defeat, that’s been a consistent theme for the team this season. But while TCU may be better than its record suggests, the Frogs are still in danger of things falling apart if they can’t get on the right side of the final score. The next two games (Oklahoma State and Baylor) are very winnable and effectively must-win games for the program.
9. Washington Huskies
Record: 10-8 (2-5 Big Ten)
The season-ending ankle and knee injuries suffered by 6-foot-5 senior guard Desmond Claude (13.3 points per game) are another blow to a Huskies squad that’s been dealing with ailments everywhere. Having lost four of the last five games, things will only get tougher for Washington in the near future, with three of the next four games on the road — including matchups against Illinois and Nebraska, two top-15 teams.
10. Tennessee Volunteers
Record: 12-6 (2-3 SEC)
Compared to the other teams on this list, the Vols are in much better shape. But even they aren’t immune to glaring warning signs, having lost three of the last five games. Their issue is on the defensive end, allowing 80+ points in four of the last five outings. Things could get rough for Tennessee over the next week, with both games on the road. A 2-5 start in SEC play is on the table for the perennial contender.
Meet your guide
