As if the wall-to-wall, delicious and delectable Feast Week hoop-a-palooza wasn’t satiating enough, we now have the best dessert imaginable: A bona fide, real-time question over who should be the No. 1 team.
Or to put another way (channeling my inner Julie Andrews): How do you solve a problem like Michigan?
As you’ll recall, I faced a similar conundrum last week after Arizona won at UConn. That was the Wildcats’ third win over a team that was ranked in the top 15 at the time they played. Many of my media colleagues argued Arizona should vault to No. 1 (the Wildcats ended up No. 2), but I stuck with my original No. 1 Purdue because a) I don’t like to move down the No. 1 team if it doesn’t’ lose and b) the Boilermakers also had significant wins at Alabama and by 30 points over then-No. 15 Texas Tech on a neutral court.
The Wolverines were No. 9 on my ballot last week, but they steamrolled the competition in Las Vegas at the Players Era Festival in unprecedented fashion, beating San Diego State by 40, Auburn by 30, and Gonzaga by 40. Those are three good teams, but Michigan made them look like high school jayvee squads. Not surprisingly, Michigan is now No. 1 in all three metrics I rely upon: KenPom, BartTorvik (filtered to include only this season’s games), and Wins Above Bubble.
But does that mean Michigan should be ranked No. 1?
As I often say with these questions, there is no right answer — except the one I give. Here, then, is the (correct) order of the top 25 teams in men’s college basketball, as filed to the Associated Press Sunday night, with full explanations as to why I voted this way. Last week’s ranks on my ballot are in parentheses. The numbers to the right are that team’s positions in the above three metrics.
DROPPED OUT: UCLA (19) 32-51-111, Saint Mary’s (23) 34-24-28, Santa Clara (24) 51-18-30, Arkansas (25) 35-32-64
ALMOST FAMOUS: Texas Tech (22-63-46), LSU (37-16-29), Clemson (27-23-31), Oklahoma State (52-35-16), Nebraska (49-53-13), Colorado (62-64-14), Baylor (25-50-21), Wisconsin 28-57-79
NOTES ON THE VOTES
• I genuinely went back and forth on this, but as you can see, not only did I not vault Michigan to No. 1, but I left them at No. 4. I did this for two reasons. First, as I explained last week, I believe there should be some measure of respect for previous rankings. Believe it or not, I put a lot of time and thought into these ballots. I have a hard time moving teams down if they haven’t lost especially the one on the top line.
The other reason is that, as unbeatable as the Wolverines looked in Vegas last week, they did look quite mortal in previous wins over Wake Forest (by one point in overtime in Detroit) and TCU (by six on the road). Granted, Michigan is much improved, and it’s also worth noting that TCU pulled off wins last week over Florida and Wisconsin in San Diego. Glancing at this bigger picture doesn’t say something about Michigan so much as it reminds us not to overreact to big wins, close wins, or even a bad loss or two.
Michigan will have plenty of opportunities to continue to make its case, although it is criminal that the Wolverines will only play Purdue once during the regular season (Feb. 17 in Mackey Arena). The Wolverines have a soft start to their Big Ten schedule, so I imagine they will keep rolling over the competition for a while. Regardless of whether they are No. 1 in the AP poll come Monday morning, they have served notice that they belong on a very short list of national championship favorites.
Turning to my incendiary Almost Famous list, kudos to Oklahoma State for remaining undefeated, albeit against a nonconference schedule that is ranked No. 266 nationally on KenPom. The Cowboys knocked off Texas A&M at home by 24 points on Nov. 9 and beat Northwestern 86-81 on Thanksgiving Day in Chicago. Given how down this program has been the last few years, those are much-welcome signs of hope. Looking ahead, Oklahoma State will have an interesting test on Dec. 13 in Oklahoma City against its intra-state rival Oklahoma, which itself got a badly-needed one-point win over Marquette in Chicago on Friday.
• Duke got two bumps last week. It beat Arkansas on Thanksgiving Day in Chicago, and its win over Kansas got better when the Jayhawks knocked off Tennessee in Vegas. In both games, KU was playing without Darryn Peterson, who will hopefully be back in action when the Jayhawks host UConn Tuesday night at Allen Fieldhouse. Duke’s quality wins plus strong metrics warrants the Blue Devils remaining above Arizona, Michigan and UConn.
• Likewise, Arizona’s win at UConn got stronger when the Huskies beat Illinois in Madison Square Garden on Friday. True, UConn was at full strength for that one, but the two returning projected starters, 6-foot-11 senior forward Tarris Reed and 6-foot-6 freshman guard Braylon Mullins, who both missed the Arizona game, were on minutes restrictions and had minimal impact. As UConn gets healthier and stronger, it will get even better, which is a scary thought.
• Gonzaga got blitzed by Michigan, but the Zags beat Alabama by 10 points two days before and have really good metrics. So they’re still top 10. They’re joined on that tier by Michigan State, which is one of the early surprises of the season. The Spartans manhandled Seth Trimble-less North Carolina in Fort Myers on Thanksgiving. They have a huge week ahead, with a sneaky good Iowa team coming to town on Tuesday followed by a home game against Duke on Saturday.
I was shocked when my fellow AP voters left Kansas unranked last week. The Jayhawks were playing without their top-three NBA Draft pick but still hung with Duke at the Champions Classic. Part of the reason I didn’t punish KU more was because Peterson was never projected to be out for a long time. The Jayhawks validated my trust with that win over Tennessee. Their play in Vegas rocketed their WAB rank from No. 100 to No. 15. Like I’ve always said, metrics are useful, not gospel.
• Houston fell nine spots, not only for losing to Tennessee, but for looking so meh during an overtime win over Syracuse, which went on to lose by 11 to Kansas and by 31 to Iowa State. The Cougars are ranked a little lower than their metrics would dictate, but they had to be behind the Vols. The Cougars have a few easy ones coming up before they face Arkansas on Dec. 20 at Prudential Center in Newark.
• Auburn’s on-again, off-again relationship with my ballot is on again. The Tigers started off No. 25 in the preseason, but they fell off the next week, partly because they barely beat Bethune-Cookman at home in overtime in the season opener, but mostly because Indiana played well enough to get ranked, which bumped the Tigers out. But the Tigers redeemed themselves in Vegas by beating Oregon and St. John’s by 11 points each. Yes, they took that drubbing from Michigan, but they had good company. Steven Pearl deserves huge credit for holding his locker room together after that loss. They’ll have to keep sticking together this week when the Tigers get N.C. State at home on Wednesday and head to Tucson to play Arizona on Saturday.
• I’ve been noting the last couple of weeks that Vanderbilt is this year’s “metrics darling.” The Commodores validated that title by thrashing a very good Saint Mary’s team 96-71 in The Bahamas. That was Vandy’s third top-100 KenPom win but it still does not have a win over a team currently in my top-25. The Commodores have a sneaky tough home game Wednesday night against undefeated SMU, but they don’t play a ranked team until they face Jan. 7 against Alabama in Nashville.
• The last thing I expected seven days ago was to be ranking TCU, but the Horned Frogs gave me no other choice when they beat Florida and Wisconsin. Not only that, but their four-point loss to Michigan at home two weeks ago makes them look even better. That’s a remarkable turnaround for a squad that lost to New Orleans at home in its season opener.
• If nothing else, I had to rank the Horned Frogs over Florida, whose best win this season came over Miami at home. The Gators’ title defense is off to a shaky start, but they have a huge two-game stretch coming up at Duke on Tuesday and against UConn at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 9.
• Ben McCollum’s Iowa Hawkeyes enter my ballot courtesy of their undefeated record and strong metrics. We’ll find out how reflective those numbers are when the Hawkeyes play at Michigan State on Tuesday.
• USC also squeaks into the Top 25 following its championship at the Maui Invitational. The Trojans beat Arizona State in the final without one of their top players, senior guard Rodney Rice, who dislocated his shoulder and will be out at least a few weeks.
• As for the teams I dropped, check out UCLA’s rank in Wins Above Bubble. Yikes! The loss to Cal isn’t even the Bruins’ biggest problem right now as they are dealing with injuries to their top two players, 6-foot-5 senior guard Donovan Dent (lower leg) and 6-foot-9 senior forward Tyler Bilodeau (left knee sprain).
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