Eight down, eight to go. Saturday was a pretty run-of-the-mill second round slate, but I expect we’ll have some fireworks today. We also have some heavyweight clashes to fill our plates, so I hope everyone is hungry!
By the time our heads hit pillows tonight, the Sweet Sixteen will be set. Here are my picks against the spread for all of today’s games:
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 7 Miami
Seth’s Analysis
Purdue took a lot of heat this season for not living up to expectations as the consensus preseason No. 1 team, but the Boilermakers have countered with a heater of their own. They carved their way through the Big Ten tournament with four wins in four days, including in the final over Michigan, and never gave Queens a chance in their 104-71 first-round win. But if you were going to create a team perfectly suited to give the Boilemakers problems, then Miami would be a good candidate. The Boilermakers struggle to defend wing athletes, and the Hurricanes are full of them. They’re not a proficient three-point shooting team, but when they’re connecting, such as their 11 for-24 performance in the first-round win over Missouri, they can be very tough to beat. Miami has three dynamic offensive players in 6-foot-3 senior guard Tre Donaldson, 6-foot-6 freshman forward Shelton Henderson and 6-foot-9 senior forward Malik Reneau, who combined for 56 of its 80 points in the win. Miami also ranks 16th on KenPom in offensive rebound percentage. I think the Hurricanes have a very real chance to win this game, but even if they don’t, they should make it competitive.
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 7 Kentucky
Seth’s Analysis
As the saying goes, all bets are off in this one. Based on how these teams played in the regular season, the Cyclones should be favored by more, but it looks like they will be without their star senior forward Joshua Jefferson, who rolled his ankle early in Iowa State’s first-round game against Tennessee State. The Cyclones didn’t miss him as they rolled to a 108-74 victory, but it will be a much bigger factor against a Kentucky squad that is riding high following its exciting overtime win over Santa Clara. Kentucky has had a reputation for underachieving this season, but the Cats have not had any many bad losses, and senior forward Otega Oweh is playing with more confidence and aggressiveness than ever. It would have been hard to imagine two days ago that I might think Kentucky can win this game, but without Jefferson, Iowa State is just another good team.
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 5 St. John’s
Seth’s Analysis
When the bracket came a week ago, this was the second-round game that everyone circled. We got our wish when both teams dispatched their first-round opponents, but the Jayhawks had to leave their win over California Baptist shaking their heads. They were up by 22 points with 9 minutes to play and then had to hang on for dear life down the stretch thanks to poor shot selection and shaky defense. Darryn Peterson was fabulous with 26 points, but he only took two free throws, and the Jayhawks’ offense ground to a halt when his teammates stood around watching him go into hero mode. That’s the version of Kansas that scares me, and it’s the one I believe will get exposed by the bruising, physical defensive challenge that St. John’s presents. The Red Storm rarely get hot from three-point range, so they’re not vulnerable to a cold shooting night. Exhibit A was their 20-point win over UConn in the Big East tournament final despite shooting 5 for 20 from three. They shot 3 for 14 in the second half from three against Northern Iowa but the game was never in doubt because they held the Panthers to 38.6 percent shooting and out-rebounded them 45-29. Kansas has the higher ceiling, but we don’t see the Jayhawks reach that point often, and they’re not likely to do so against a team whose core identity is defense, rebounding and toughness.
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 6 Tennessee
Seth’s Analysis
How do you solve a problem like Virginia? All the Cavaliers have done all season is win, yet where’s the respect from dolts like, well, me? Virginia has lost just five games all season, three of them to Duke, and yet it enters this game as the underdog even though it’s the higher seed. The Cavs were tested by a quality Wright State team in the first round but secured the 82-73 thanks to 26 points off the bench from 6-foot-3 senior guard Jacari White, who buried 6 of his 8 three-point attempts. Virginia also owned a 39-24 advantage on the glass and got 19 second-chance points, but that is going to be far tougher to do against Tennessee, which ranks first on KenPom in offensive rebound percentage. It’s also worth nothing that Tennessee blew out Miami (Ohio) on Friday even though freshman forward Nate Ament went scoreless and played just 18 minutes. There was no indication that he was injured. Apparently, he was just awful. Are we headed for a repeat performance, or is he going to bounce back? The answer will decide the outcome, but I’ve got a feeling that Virginia is going to rise to the occasion, and when it does, we’ll all realize the Cavaliers have been hiding in plain sight.
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 9 Iowa
Seth’s Analysis
I’ve been saying that I thought Florida’s decisive loss to Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament was the best thing that could have happened to this Gators squad, and they showed why in eviscerating Prairie View A&M 114-55 in the first round. I’m frankly surprised this point spread isn’t higher. Yes, I know the Hawkeyes like to play at a snail’s pace (No. 361 on KenPom in tempo), but that also means if they fall behind by a significant margin, they are not equipped to catch up. The Gators struggled from three for much of the season, but they had their best shooting month in February. Iowa will have the best guard in the game in Bennett Stirtz, but the Gators will bring everything they have to put the clamps on him, so he’ll need some more help from friends like 6-foot-4 junior guard Kael Combs and 6-foot-10 junior forward Alvaro Folguieras, who combined for 29 points in the first-round win over Clemson. The Hawkeyes got by the Tigers in that game by dominating the glass 40-27, but that is not going to be the case against the best frontcourt in the country.
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 9 Utah State
Seth’s Analysis
I picked Utah State to lose its first-round game against Villanova, but while I’m not surprised the Aggies won the game, I was surprised at how they did it. Villanova is a rugged, bruising Big East team, but Utah State dominated the Wildcats in the paint 42-26 and outscored them 28-6 from the foul line. That’s a major toughness differential, but doing the same against these Wildcats will be far less likely. Utah State ranks ninth nationally in two-point field goal percentage (59.8), but it’s hard to see the Aggies hitting that number against Arizona’s imposing frontcourt of 7-foot-2 junior center Montiejus Krivas and sixth man/uber rebounder Tobe Awaka. Arizona has a reputation for not being a three-point shooting team, but the Wildcats actually rank a respectable 48th nationally at 36.3 percent. They just don’t need to take a lot of threes, but if they do, they have several players who can knock them down.
No. 2 UConn vs. No. 7 UCLA
Seth’s Analysis
Both these teams have injury issues. UConn was lacking its starting point guard Silas Demary and a key reserve in Jaylin Stewart. The Huskies missed Demary in particular during their first-round game against Furman, but it didn’t matter because 6-foot-10 senior forward Tarris Reed did his Wilt Chamberlain impression by going for 31 points and 27 rebounds. That’s a particular problem for UCLA if the Bruins don’t have 6-foot-9 senior forward Tyler Bilodeau, who has missed the last two games with a sprained knee. Bilodeau tested the knee in warm-ups and said he wanted to play, but Mick Cronin decided he wasn’t ready. UCLA can’t win this game without him, so I’m guessing he’s going to play. If that’s the case, maybe the Bruins can force UConn into another poor three-point shooting night. (The Huskies were 5 for 25 from behind the arc against Furman.) I picked UCLA to go to the Elite Eight so I’ll stick with the Bruins, but this is not a big point spread, and the Bilodeau injury is definitely concerning.
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 5 Texas Tech
Seth’s Analysis
Both these teams were missing important players in their first-round games, but you wouldn’t know it watching them play. Alabama was without 6-foot-1 junior guard Aden Holloway, who is not with the team following an arrest for marijuana possession, but it still dominated Hofstra in the second half and won 90-70. Sophomore guard Labaron Philon went for 29 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists. Texas Tech has been without All-American forward J.T. Toppin for four weeks but also won its first-round game against Akron by 20 points. Freshman guard Jaylen Petty has stepped up his game in recent weeks and put up 24 points on 5 of 7 three-point shooting. Both of these teams are heavily dependent on making threes, so the game will come down to who has the better shooting day. Texas Tech ranks No. 33 on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency and Alabama is 65th, so that means the Red Raiders have more margin for error.
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