The star-studded freshman NBA Draft lottery locks meant there could be more potential all-conference players returning to college basketball.
The money, which could be more lucrative than a late first- or second-round contract, the desire to chase a national title and the reality that the 2027 NBA draft won’t be as deep helped in the decision process.
Can’t judge winners and losers on the expectation that schools with lottery freshmen were going to see them stay in the draft. So, let’s take the freshmen who are destined for the lottery out of the mix (see a school like Arkansas) and judge the rest of the schools who got players back — and others who took a hit when a few decided to stay in the draft.
Winners
Milan Momcilovic: The Iowa State shooter withdrew from the NBA Draft late Wednesday night and will immediately command major portal dollars. Momcilovic averaged 16.9 points a game in his second season at Iowa State. He was a nearly 50 percent 3-point shooter and did shoot 50 percent from the field. The question now remains: which teams have the money still available at his price point to land him in the coming weeks. Remember, players who were already in the portal have until the first day of classes in the fall to find a new home.
Duke: John Blackwell danced around the idea of staying in the NBA Draft but ultimately decided to withdraw and go to Duke. He will be welcomed by the Blue Devils, as he gives them immediate scoring pop in the backcourt. Blackwell will be a contender for first-team all-ACC on day one.
The Blue Devils knew they would lose Cameron Boozer and Isaiah Evans, but with Blackwell added to the mix along with Belmont transfer Drew Scharnowski, returnees Caleb Foster, Cayden Boozer, Patrick Ngongba II and Dame Sarr, Duke is ready to launch another Final Four run.
Add in another loaded recruiting class with Cameron Williams, Deron Rippey Jr., Bryson Howard, Maxime Mayer and Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje and the Blue Devils can match any team at any spot.
Florida: Rueben Chinyelu was the one holdout to the potential No. 1 Gators’ roster. He made his decision official last week, rejoining the best frontcourt in the country with Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh. That trio will be tough to deal with at both ends of the court.
Chinyelu is the reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year. Getting Boogie Fland back is another major plus, and if Denzel Aberdeen can get a waiver to return to Florida (he was on the 2025 title team), the Gators should be complete.
The depth is there with AJ Brown, Isaiah Brown, CJ Ingram and Alex Lloyd with the additions of Lithuanian big Arturas Butajevas. Todd Golden has a title squad again.
BACK TO SCHOOL TOP 25 UPDATE
Never-Too-Early Preseason Top 25 Update: Florida Jumps to No. 1
May 26: Seth Davis’ rankings see a big change at the top as big-time players drop out of the NBA Draft and head back to school
Michigan State: Jeremy Fears Jr. made Michigan State sweat to the final hours, but his return means the Spartans have a possible Big Ten Player of the Year back. Fears Jr. could be the best point guard in the country.
The backcourt is deep with the return of Kur Teng and Jordan Scott and the addition of highly touted guards Carlos Medlock Jr. and Josiah Jervis. Coen Carr will continue to be more of a complete player, and expect Kaleb Glenn, Cam Ward and Jesse McCulloch to make another big jump. Tom Izzo has another squad ready to make a deep NCAA Tournament run.
Vanderbilt: Tyler Tanner had Mark Byington anxious down to the final day. Tanner could be the preseason Player of the Year in the SEC. He’s that good. But he’s got help coming next season in the form of one of the top hidden gems in the portal: Washington State’s Ace Glass. I saw Glass drop 40 in Maui. He will be instant offense in the SEC. The Commodores could have the highest scoring backcourt in the conference.
USC: Alijah Arenas flirted for a moment in the draft and withdrew. That means he will join Rodney Rice (back from a shoulder injury) and KJ Lewis (transfer from Georgetown) back at USC. There is only one basketball for all three, but if they can coexist, the Trojans will be trouble in the Big Ten.
Arenas wasn’t the only one withdrawing. Jacob Cofie was invited to the G League combine, got elevated to the regular combine but then saw he was better served to return. Cofie will be the anchor for the Trojans with a loaded frontcourt that includes UConn transfer Eric Reibe and freshmen Adonis and Darius Ratliff and Christian Collins.
Illinois: Andrej Stojakovic waited to the final day to make up his mind and return, which vaults the Illini into the mix for a Big Ten title. Stojakovic joins returnees David Mirkovic, Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic, Jake Davis and Providence transfer shooter Stefan Vaaks. The addition of Quentin Coleman gives even more scoring depth to a loaded roster.
Miami: The Hurricanes waited for Villanova’s Acaden Lewis to withdraw from the draft and head their way. That means the ‘Canes are adding the Big East Freshman of the Year. Lewis will join Indiana transfer Nick Dorn and returning stud Shelton Henderson to give the ‘Canes another NCAA Tournament-caliber roster.
Ketucky: Malachi Moreno withdrew from the NBA Draft, a much-needed bright spot for the Wildcats. Moreno will be featured more on next season’s roster, as he and Washington transfer guard Zoom Diallo should be quite a 1-2 punch.
Holding Steady
Arizona: Koa Peat took his decision down to the final hours and decided to stay in the NBA Draft. His classmate Brayden Burries also stayed in the draft, since he will likely be destined for a spot in the lottery. But the Wildcats did a tremendous job on retention by still keeping Ivan Kharchenkov and Motiejus Krivas to give coach Tommy Lloyd one of the best returning corps in the Big 12.
The additions of Washington’s JJ Mandaquit (whom Lloyd coached on the gold-medal winning FIBA team in the summer of 2025) and North Carolina’s Derek Dixon, as well as incoming shooting guard Caleb Holt, gives the Wildcats a loaded roster again.
Michigan: The Wolverines were always going to lose Aday Mara to the lottery. There was a slim chance that Morez Johnson Jr. could come back, but his measurable stats at the NBA Draft combine confirmed what we all knew: He’s a first-round talent. But the Wolverines couldn’t come out of the withdrawal deadline empty handed. And they didn’t when Elliot Cadeau returned. He will form one of the top backcourts in the country with Trey McKenney and Brandon McCoy Jr. The pickups of big men JP Estrella (Tennessee) and Moustapha Thiam (Cincinnati) give Dusty May the talent needed for another title run.
North Carolina: The Tar Heels were going to lose Henri Veesaar to the draft. That was a given. The unknown was whether NC State guard Matt Able would withdraw and play for Michael Malone in Chapel Hill. North Carolina made the announcement on decision day that he would transfer within the triangle. Able was a rising star in the ACC last season for an inconsistent team, and now he’s a much needed piece for Malone in his first season. Adding Virginia Tech guard Neoklis Avdalas gives the Tar Heels plenty of scoring pop.
Arkansas: The Razorbacks knew they were losing lottery pick Darius Acuff Jr., and Travon Brazile. Maleek Thomas stayed in the draft, but getting Billy Richmond III to return was a late-night coup on the deadline. Richmond averaged 11.2 points a game and should be a star next season. The Hogs got Jeremiah Wilkinson in the portal from Georgia and Cooper Bowser from Furman and they have the No. 2 recruiting class in the nation, led by JJ Andrews, Abdou Toure, Jordan Smith Jr. and Miikka Muurinen.
Losers
Baylor: The Bears got a surprise when Tounde Yessoufu, who could have been a first-round pick decided to return to college — albeit at St. John’s, where he’ll suit up for Rick Pitino. Cameron Carr, who had a solid season with 18 points a game, was the chatter of the Chicago combine, ensuring his status in the draft. The Bears did get Penn State transfer Kayden Mingo to go along with Dylan Mingo. So the backcourt will have scoring pop, but it could have been even deeper and stronger.
Stanford: Kyle Smith is in a no-win situation. The Stanford job is one of the hardest, especially in the ACC. He lands a steal in Ebuka Okorie, who averaged 23 points a game as a freshman. His season meant he was on the radar. And then his play in Chicago at the combine confirmed that he was a legit first-round talent. The Cardinal can’t just find another Okorie in the portal in late May.
Washington: When Hannes Steinbach arrived in Seattle there was a legit chance he could stay two years. But his 18 points and nearly 12 rebounds a game meant he was a lottery lock. And there was no way Danny Sprinkle could replicate Steinbach in the portal or in the newcomer class. Losing Zoom Diallo to Kentucky means the Huskies are going to be in a scoring deficit unless Wesley Yates III can return to his stellar form.
Texas Tech: Christian Anderson Jr. had an amazing summer playing for Germany in the FIBA U19 in 2025. His 18 points and 7.4 assists a game put him on every scout’s first-round list. Not having JT Toppin (out with an ACL injury) means the Red Raiders are starting over, but Grant McCasland has the additions of Cruz Davis (Hofstra) and Dra-Gibbs Lawhorn (UNLV) to give them hope for another Big 12 run.
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