Last night was finally a good night for most bubble teams. The headliner was easily TCU going on the road to win at Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs have now won seven of their last eight games and have wins over Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa State and at Texas Tech. One might look at these wins and say that this team is obviously in the NCAA Tournament. However, that is not the case just yet. The only thing bringing down their resume is the fact that they have a Quad 4 loss to New Orleans. Ultimately, that will no longer prevent them from being an at-large bid thanks to them having such strong top tier wins. TCU is currently slotted in as a No. 10 seed and will end Big 12 play this weekend against a hot Cincinnati team.
There were a few SEC teams that had a nice Tuesday night on the bubble as well. Georgia picked up a good win over Alabama to lock up an NCAA Tournament bid. The Bulldogs have top 35 resume metrics and are aiming to receive a single-digit seed. Another team that came up big last night was Texas A&M. The Aggies were trending towards being a bubble team over the course of the last few weeks, but their win over Kentucky kind of stopped the bleeding. Texas A&M isn’t locked in for a bid yet, but is now in pretty good shape. The final SEC team that was desperate for a win and got it was Auburn. The Tigers beat LSU and improved to 16-14 overall. For the time being, this puts them back into the field. It’s been a rare occurrence, but we’ve seen two teams in NCAA Tournament history get at-large bids while being just two games over .500. That being said, Auburn heads to Alabama in its SEC finale this weekend and a loss to the Crimson Tide will drop the Tigers to the wrong side of the bubble.
“Invitations Sent” are teams that are all but 100 percent assured of receiving an at-large bid even if they don’t win another game.
“Invitations Printed” are teams that are safely in the field for now, but still have work to do.
“On the List…for Now” are teams that are in the clear at the moment, but could fall out due to a couple of bad losses.
“The Uninvited” are teams that would be very unlikely to receive an at-large bid if the tournament field were selected today.
Before continuing, it’s important to note the following:
- Result-Based Metrics (SOR, KPI, WAB): these metrics help determine inclusion into the field
- Predictive Metrics (NET, BPI, Ken Pom, Torvik): these metrics play a role in the seeding of teams
Regarding the NET Quadrants, a Quad 1 game meets one of the following criteria:
- A home game against an opponent ranked 1-30 in the NET
- A neutral court game against an opponent ranked 1-50
- An away game against an opponent ranked 1-75
First, here’s a real-time look at my cut line:
Last Four Byes
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1.
Missouri Tigers
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UCLA Bruins
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Texas A&M Aggies
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Ohio State Buckeyes
Last Four Teams In
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1.
SMU Mustangs
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Santa Clara Broncos
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New Mexico Lobos
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Auburn Tigers
First Four Teams Out
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1.
VCU Rams
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California Golden Bears
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Indiana Hoosiers
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Virginia Tech Hokies
Next Four Teams Out
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1.
USC Trojans
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Oklahoma State Cowboys
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Seton Hall Pirates
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Cincinnati Bearcats
ACC
Invitations Sent: Duke (No. 1 seed), Virginia (4), North Carolina (5), Louisville (7), Miami (8), Clemson (8)
Invitations Printed: NC State (9)
On the List…for Now: SMU (11)
The Uninvited: California (First 4 Out), Virginia Tech (First 4 Out)
SMU
The Good: No bad losses, wins over Louisville, UNC, Texas A&M (n), 12-10 Quad 1-Quad 3
The Bad: 0-5 against Quad 1A opponents
The Outlook: The Mustangs West Coast trip did not go so well. They went 0-2 with losses to Cal and Stanford and now find themselves smack on the bubble. The only thing that went right for SMU last weekend was the fact that most teams on the bubble ended up losing. SMU has a big week ahead as it faces Miami at home and then go on the road to play a tough Florida State team on Saturday. Winning even just one of these games would be highly beneficial for the Mustangs at-large hopes. If they go 0-2? That very well could put them on the wrong side of the bubble.
California
The Good: 4-4 against Quad 1 opponents, beat UNC, SMU, UCLA (n)
The Bad: 6-8 versus Quad 1/Quad 2, predictive metrics in 60’s, 2-4 vs Quad 2, NCSOS: No. 331, Quad 3 loss to Pitt
The Outlook: The Golden Bears did what they could not afford to do on Saturday and that was lose at home to Pitt. This was their first bad loss of the season, but it was part of the reason Cal was able to jump into the field last week. After the loss to the Panthers, the Golden Bears WAB ranking dropped from 43 to 50 which puts them on the wrong side of the bubble right now. Cal finishes up ACC play on the road at Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. There’s a chance it can get back into the field if it goes 2-0, but now everything in terms of receiving an at-large bid is up in the air.
Virginia Tech
The Good: Beat Virginia, Cal, won at Clemson, KPI: 40
The Bad: 2-9 Quad 1, 2-7 against Quad 1A opponents, predictive metrics around 60The Outlook: The Hokies lost at North Carolina on Saturday and have dropped five of their last seven games. However, there’s still some hope left for this team to receive an at-large bid thanks to the poor play from the rest of the bubble teams. Virginia Tech finishes up ACC play with a road game at Virginia. If the Hokies are able to pull off the upset at Virginia, there’s a very good chance they will enter the field.
Big East
Invitations Sent: UConn (1), St. John’s (5), Villanova (8)
Invitations Printed: None
On the List…for Now: None
The Uninvited: Seton Hall (Next 4 Out)
Seton Hall
The Good: Beat NC State (n), 8-6 r/n
The Bad: Only one win over an at-large team, WAB: 55, 2-4 Quad 1, 0-4 Quad 1A, two Quad 3 lossesThe Outlook: The Pirates had a golden opportunity to claim an at-large bid with a win on Saturday at UConn, but came up short. It was a heck of an effort by Seton Hall, but it seemed to just run out of gas late in the game. The prospects of receiving an at-large bid are looking pretty bleak now. The Pirates end Big East play with a home contest versus St. John’s. Obviously, they will need to win this, but even doing that probably won’t be enough to get them in the field. To make matters worse, their only win against a team with a current at-large bid is NC State, and the Wolfpack have lost five of their last six games.
Big Ten
Invitations Sent: Michigan (1), Illinois (2), Michigan State (2), Purdue (3), Nebraska (3), Wisconsin (6)
Invitations Printed: Iowa (9)
On the List…for Now: UCLA (10), Ohio State (11)
The Uninvited: Indiana (First 4 Out), USC (Next 4 Out)
UCLA
The Good: BPI: 33, WAB: 38, SOR: 35, beat Purdue, Illinois and USC
The Bad: KPI: 54, 2-7 Quad 1A
The Outlook: UCLA followed up a huge win over the weekend against Illinois with a victory over crosstown rival — and fellow bubble team — USC. The Bruins are in a much better spot now as they head to USC for the season finale.
Ohio State
The Good: NET: 34, WAB: 37, beat Wisconsin, UCLA, Purdue, no bad losses
The Bad: 2-10 Quad 1, 8-11 Quad 1/Quad 2, KPI: 47
The Outlook: Ohio State got it done on Sunday as it knocked off Purdue; a win that elevated the Buckeyes into the at-large field. Not only are they in the field right now, but they are also above the Last Four In cut-line because they have predictive metrics in the top 40. Ohio State is not out of the woods yet though. It finishes Big Ten play on the road at Penn State and at home against Indiana. I will feel very good about its chances to be an NCAA Tournament team should it go 2-0.
USC
The Good: Won at Wisconsin, beat Indiana, 9-5 r/n
The Bad: 2-8 Quad 1, Ken Pom: 67, Quad 3 loss to Oregon, one win over at-large team
The Outlook: It’s all falling apart for the Trojans. They have now lost five games in a row after suffering a defeat at home against Nebraska on Saturday. To make matters worse, their lead scorer Chad Baker-Mazara was kicked off the team. USC ends Big Ten play with a game at Washington and at home against UCLA. It is going to need to win both of these games in order to get back into play for an at-large bid. That being said, the vibes here are not good.
Indiana
The Good: Beat Purdue, Wisconsin, won at UCLA
The Bad: 2-11 Quad 1, 4-12 Quad 1/Quad 2The Outlook: The Hoosiers have lost four games in a row and are now on the outside of the bubble looking in. They lost to Northwestern and Michigan State last week and are now running out of time to improve their resume. Indiana finishes Big Ten play with Minnesota and on the road at fellow bubble team Ohio State. It will need both of these games in order to make a case for an at-large bid. The one part right now that really scares me about its resume is the fact that it is just 4-12 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents. There’s no doubt the selection committee will take issue with this.
Big 12
Invitations Sent: Arizona (1), Houston (2), Iowa State (3), Texas Tech (4), Kansas (4), BYU (6), UCF (8)
Invitations Printed: TCU (10)
On the List…for Now: None
The Uninvited: Oklahoma State (Next 4 Out), Cincinnati (Next 4 Out)
TCU
The Good: 5-6 Quad 1, won at Texas Tech, beat Iowa State, beat Florida, Wisconsin on a neutral court
The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Notre Dame, Quad 4 loss to New Orleans, KPI: 49
The Outlook: The two bad losses on the Horned Frogs’ resume stick out like a sore thumb. Especially the Quad 4 loss to New Orleans. However, TCU has done an excellent job of negating these bad losses by getting some great wins. The biggest win of Tuesday night went to the Horned Frogs as they pulled off the upset at Texas Tech. I’m not going to call TCU a lock just yet, but it is now in very good shape to receive an at-large bid.
Oklahoma State
The Good: No bad losses, beat BYU, Texas A&M and UCF, won at UCF
The Bad: T-Rank: 89, NET: 84, 2-8 Quad 1, 9-12 Quad 1 and Quad 2, NCSOS: 264, 4-8 R/N
The Outlook: The Cowboys kept their NCAA Tournament hopes alive with a big road win at UCF on Tuesday. They also managed to improve many areas of their resume that were deficient. Oklahoma State added a Quad 1 win and a road win, which were two areas that were not good enough. An interesting matchup lies ahead as the Cowboys will face Houston on Saturday. A win over the Cougars could make things very interesting.
Cincinnati
The Good: beat Iowa State, UCF, BYU, won at Kansas, T-Rank: 32
The Bad: WAB: 66, 3-10 Quad 1, 2-10 R/N, 10-12 Quad 1 through Quad 3, Quad 4 loss to Eastern Michigan
The Outlook: Cincinnati has come out of nowhere to win six of its last seven games. Last night’s win over BYU, lifted the Bearcats into the Next Four Out. They finish Big 12 play on Saturday at TCU. This will be a game Cincinnati needs to have in order to stay relevant on the bubble. It will also need to make a run in the Big 12 Tournament. The selection committee is going to have a hard time looking away from its 2-10 record away from home, plus that Quad 4 loss to EMU.
West Virginia
The Good: Beat Kansas, BYU, won at UCF, BPI: 47, 5-7 Quad 1
The Bad: NCSOS: 285, 3-10 R/N, 1-5 Quad 2The Outlook: West Virginia has now lost four of its last five games after losing at Kansas State on Tuesday. Its chances of receiving an at-large bid are now very slim. The Mountaineers close the season with a game against UCF. That will clearly be a must-win game.ineers finish the season with BYU, at Kansas State and UCF. They’re obviously going to need to win all three of these games and do damage in the Big 12 Tournament.
SEC
Invitations Sent: Florida (2), Alabama (4), Vanderbilt (5), Tennessee (5), Arkansas (6), Kentucky (6), Georgia (9)
Invitations Printed: Texas (9), Missouri (10)
On the List…for Now: Texas A&M (10), Auburn (Last 4 In)
The Uninvited: None
Missouri
The Good: SOR: 32, BPI: 42, beat Tennessee, Florida, Auburn, Vanderbilt and won at Kentucky and at Texas A&M, no bad losses
The Bad: Ken Pom: 47, 5-8 R/N
The Outlook: The Tigers lost at Oklahoma on Tuesday night, but still remain in good shape to receive an at-large bid. The are still a very solid 10-8 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents and have top 40 resume metrics. Missouri closes SEC play on Saturday against Arkansas. A win over the Razorbacks locks up a bid for the Tigers.
Texas
The Good: WAB: 39, SOR: 37, Ken Pom: 29, 7-8 Quad 1, beat Vanderbilt, Georgia, NC State (n), won at Alabama, at Missouri and at Texas A&M
The Bad: KPI: 51, 8-10 Quad 1/Quad 2
The Outlook: Texas is one of the bubble teams that truly benefited itself this weekend. The Longhorns picked up a massive win on Saturday at Texas A&M. I am feeling very good about their chances of receiving an at-large bid now. They end SEC play at Arkansas and home against Oklahoma. If Texas wins one of these two games, it will be a lock to receive an at-large bid.
Texas A&M
The Good: SOR: 40, 5-6 Quad 1, no bad losses, beat Kentucky, wins at Georgia, at Texas, BPI: 31
The Bad: KPI: 61
The Outlook: The Aggies added a very important Quad 1 win over Kentucky on Tuesday, which bolstered their chances for an at-large bid. They had been slipping very close towards the bubble the last couple of weeks after losing six of eight games. This win helps Texas A&M breathe a bit easier. It is now 5-6 against Quad 1 opponents and end SEC play on the road at LSU. The Aggies are not out of the woods yet, but things are now looking much more promising.
Auburn
The Good: Won at Florida, beat St. John’s (n), Arkansas, NC State, Kentucky
The Bad: 16-14 overall, 8-13 Quad 1-Quad 3
The Outlook: Auburn has the necessary wins to be an at-large team. The problem is its overall record. Only two teams have ever received an at-large bid while being only to games over .500. And that’s where the Tigers are right now. The Tigers close up SEC play with a road game at Alabama. A loss and they are back to being just one game over .500.
Other Candidates
Invitations Sent: Gonzaga (3), Saint Mary’s (7)
Invitations Printed: Saint Louis (7), Utah State (7)
On the List…for Now: Santa Clara (Last 4 In), New Mexico (Last 4 In), Miami OH (auto)
The Uninvited: VCU (First 4 Out), San Diego State (Next 4 Out)
New Mexico
The Good: Won at VCU, Beat Santa Clara, San Diego State, 8-6 Quad 1/Quad 2, KPI: 41, T-Rank: 46
The Bad: Maybe just one win over an at-large team, Quad 3 loss at New Mexico State, BPI: 54
The Outlook: New Mexico was one of the few bubble teams that came away with a win over the weekend as the Lobos defeated San Diego State. The win actually put them into the field for the time being. New Mexico finishes up Mountain West play against Colorado State and at Utah State. If the Lobos are able to go 2-0, they will be more likely than not an NCAA Tournament team. Should they go 1-1, things will largely depend on how the rest of the bubble performs.
Miami (OH)
The Good: 27-0 against D-I teams, SOR: 21, WAB: 32, 1-0 Quad 2, 14-0 r/n
The Bad: NCSOS: 364, BPI: 86, zero Quad 1 games played, 26 of 27 D-I wins against Quad 3 or Quad 4
The Outlook: As the lone undefeated team remaining, the Red Hawks have one interesting resume. They would be the first team to ever receive an at-large bid without having even played a Quad 1 opponent. One regular season game remains, and if they are able to avoid a loss, there is no way this team can be left out of the tourney.
Santa Clara
The Good: WAB: 41, SOR: 43, T-Rank: 31, 7-6 Quad 1/Quad 2, beat Saint Mary’s
The Bad: Quad 4 loss to Loyola, 1-5 Quad 1, BPI: 48
The Outlook: The Broncos closed out WCC play with a win over Oregon State on Saturday. The win keeps them in the Last Four In. In an ideal world, Santa Clara reaches the WCC Championship game while getting a win over Saint Mary’s. If it fails to do this, its chances of receiving an at-large bid will come down to bid-stealers and how the rest of the bubble teams perform in their conference tournaments.
San Diego State
The Good: Beat New Mexico and Utah State, 5-3 Quad 2
The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Troy
The Outlook: The Aztecs have now dropped four of their last six games after losing at New Mexico and at Boise State over the last few days. Their at-large chances are slowly slipping away as a result. San Diego State ends Mountain West play at home in a must-win game against UNLV and then must make a deep run in the Mountain West Tournament in order to have any chance for an at-large bid.
VCU
The Good: KPI: 37, BPI: 46, 4-2 Quad 2, no bad losses, beat Virginia Tech (n), South Florida (n)
The Bad: 1-5 Quad 1, T-Rank: 52
The Outlook: VCU defeat George Mason on Tuesday to remain firmly on the bubble cut-line. The bubble isn’t particularly strong, so if VCU can win at Dayton and make a run to the A-10 championship game, the possibility of an at-large bid definitely exists.
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