Bubble Watch 2026: Virginia Tech, Missouri In; Cal, Ohio State Out

Another important weekend of bubble games are on the horizon this weekend as we continue to monitor which teams are able to separate themselves from the pack. For me, the two biggest bubble games on Saturday are Ohio State against Virginia in Nashville and Gonzaga at Santa Clara. The Buckeyes and Broncos have significant opportunities to pick up Quad 1A wins and differentiate themselves from the rest of the bubble. We are at the midway point through February, so I am looking forward to seeing the urgency out of the teams trying to prove their at-large worthiness.

As we all have our eyes towards Selection Sunday, we remind you that the selection committee is looking for items on your resume that stand out. In an age where metrics are king, the most critical numbers to pay attention to are WAB (Wins Above Bubble) and SOR (Strength of Record), result-based metrics that evaluate every team throughout the season. No team was left out of the NCAA Tournament last year that had a WAB ranking of No. 40 or better and only one team received an at-large bid (Texas) that had a SOR ranking of No. 50 or worse. While this is just a small snapshot, it’s still useful information when evaluating resumes.

“Invitations Sent” are teams that are all but 100 percent assured of receiving an at-large bid even if they don’t win another game.

“Invitations Printed” are teams that are safely in the field for now, but still have work to do.

“On the List…for Now” are teams that are in the clear at the moment, but could fall out due to a couple of bad losses.

“The Uninvited” are teams that would be very unlikely to receive an at-large bid if the tournament field were selected today.

Before continuing, it’s important to note the following:

Result-Based Metrics (SOR, KPI, WAB): these metrics help determine inclusion into the field
Predictive Metrics (NET, BPI, Ken Pom, Torvik): these metrics play a role in the seeding of teams

Regarding the NET Quadrants, a Quad 1 game meets one of the following criteria:

A home game against an opponent ranked 1-30 in the NET
A neutral court game against an opponent ranked 1-50
An away game against an opponent ranked 1-75

First, here’s a real-time look at my cut line.

Last Four Byes

1.
Missouri Tigers
2.
Saint Mary’s Gaels
3.
Miami Hurricanes
4.
USC Trojans

Last Four Teams In

1.
Indiana Hoosiers
2.
Virginia Tech Hokies
3.
Texas Longhorns
4.
UCLA Bruins

First Four Teams Out

1.
Ohio State Buckeyes
2.
California Golden Bears
3.
TCU Horned Frogs
4.
New Mexico Lobos

Next Four Teams Out

1.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
2.
VCU Rams
3.
San Diego State Aztecs
4.
Seton Hall Pirates

ACC

Invitations Sent: Duke (No. 1 seed), Virginia (4), North Carolina (5)

Invitations Printed: Louisville (6), Clemson (7), NC State (8)

On the List…for Now: SMU (9), Miami (10), Virginia Tech (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: California (First 4 Out), Stanford

NC State

The Good: WAB: 31, SOR: 33, KPI: 24, wins at Clemson and SMU, 11-6 Quad 1/Quad 2, NCSOS: 61, 8-4 r/n record, Top 30 predictive metrics

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Georgia Tech

The Outlook: The Wolfpack had their six-game winning streak snapped at Louisville on Monday night in grand fashion by a score of 118-77. They had been absolutely rolling prior to this game and are still in very good shape to receive an at-large bid. One thing that had been lacking on their resume was the fact that they only had two wins over likely at-large teams, but that number is now at three thanks to Virginia Tech winning at Clemson on Wednesday to elevate the Hokies into the field. The next three games for NC State are Miami, UNC and at Virginia.

SMU

The Good: WAB: 36, no bad losses, wins over UNC, Texas A&M (n), 11-7 versus Quad 1-Quad 3

The Bad: 0-4 against Quad 1A opponents

The Outlook: SMU remains in decent shape for an at-large bid, but the Mustangs are probably one bad loss away from being right on the bubble. It’ll be important for them to continue to beat the Quad 3 and Quad 4 ACC teams, while ideally picking up another win or two against a team likely to become an at-large bid. SMU heads to Syracuse on Saturday in what is currently a Quad 1 opportunity.

Miami

The Good: SOR: 42, WAB: 38, 7-4 versus Quad 1/Quad 2, 6-3 r/n, beat UNC

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Florida St, 0-3 vs Quad 1A, one win over likely at-large teams

The Outlook: The Hurricanes finally busted through and picked up their first win over an at-large team as they defeated North Carolina on Tuesday night. As a result, Miami is back in the field. The Hurricanes still have four more opportunities (at NC State, at Virginia, at SMU, Louisville) to enhance their profile.

Virginia Tech

The Good: Beat Virginia, Cal, won at Clemson, KPI: 35, WAB: 44, no bad losses, 11-8 versus Quad 1-Quad 3

The Bad: 3-7 Quad 1, 1-4 against Quad 1A opponents, predictive metrics in mid-50’s

The Outlook: The Hokies picked up a monster win at Clemson on Wednesday night. Just what the doctor ordered to get back into the field as one of my last four teams in. Virginia Tech is obviously not safe, so a win over Florida State on Saturday is vital to keep itself locked in.

California

The Good: 4-5 against Quad 1 opponents, beat UNC, UCLA (n), no Quad 3 or Quad 4 L’s

The Bad: 4-8 versus Quad 1/Quad 2, predictive metrics in 70’s, 0-3 vs Quad 2, NCSOS: No. 329

The Outlook: The Golden Bears dropped out of the field after losing at Syracuse on Wednesday night. It wasn’t the fact that this was a bad loss, but Virginia Tech was able to jump them thanks to pulling off the upset at Clemson. Cal heads to Boston College on Saturday and needs to avoid a bad loss to keep pace with the rest of the bubble.

Big East

Invitations Sent: UConn (1)

Invitations Printed: St. John’s (5), Villanova (7)

On the List…for Now: None

The Uninvited: Seton Hall (Next 4 Out), Creighton, Georgetown, Butler

Seton Hall

The Good: beat NC State (n), no bad losses, 6-5 r/n

The Bad: only one win over an at-large team, WAB: 56, 5-8 Quad 1/Quad 2, 1-4 Quad 1, 0-3 Quad 1A

The Outlook: The Pirates defeated Providence on Wednesday to recover nicely after their previous excruciating loss at Creighton. This was a win they needed to have to remain relevant. Seton Hall heads to Butler on Sunday. A win there would be considered a quality win (likely a Q2) and the Pirates need it.

Creighton

The Good: won at Villanova

The Bad: WAB: 83, Quad 3 loss to Kansas State, 1-7 Quad 1, 4-11 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Outlook: The Bluejays lost at DePaul earlier in the week and the chances of this team making a run for a bid are getting close to slim to none. They still get to play Villanova again, plus road games at UConn and St. John’s. Opportunities remain, but they are going to need to finish near perfect in order to get back in contention for a bid.

Georgetown

The Good: Beat Clemson

The Bad: WAB: 87, poor predictive metrics, 4-10 Quad 1/Quad 2, Quad 3 loss to Xavier, only one win against an at-large team

The Outlook: The Hoyas have a ton of work to do, but have the opportunities to improve their profile immensely. Georgetown goes to UConn on Saturday and also still get to play at Seton Hall and at St. John’s. While the opportunity exists, it’s also highly unlikely that the Hoyas will be relevant before the end of the season.

Butler

The Good: Beat Virginia (n), won at Seton Hall

The Bad: 3-11 Quad 1/Quad 2, Quad 3 loss to Georgetown, WAB: 85

The Outlook: Butler still gets to play UConn, Seton Hall and at Villanova and it’s probably going to need to beat all three of them to keep hope alive for an at-large bid.

Big Ten

Invitations Sent: Michigan (1), Illinois (2), Purdue (2), Nebraska (3), Michigan State (4)

Invitations Printed: Wisconsin (7)

On the List…for Now: Iowa (8), USC (10), Indiana (Last 4 In), UCLA (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: Ohio State (First 4 Out)

Wisconsin

The Good: SOR: 31, WAB: 30, T-Rank: 34, won at Michigan and at Illinois, beat Michigan State, no bad losses

The Bad: 3-6 Quad 1

The Outlook: No team in the country has two better wins than the Badgers as they’ve beaten both Michigan and Illinois on the road. Beating Michigan State on Friday night puts the Badgers on the precipice of becoming a lock. This is going to be an NCAA Tournament team. Wisconsin needs to continue to pile up quality wins in order to improve its overall seed.

Iowa

The Good: KenPom: 23, T-Rank: 23, SOR: 30, 8-5 Quad 1/Quad 2, won at Indiana, 6-5 r/n

The Bad: Only two Quad 1 wins, NCSOS: 257, 1-4 vs Quad 1A opponents, Q3 loss at Maryland

The Outlook: Iowa has such dominant predictive metrics in large part to how it fared in nonconference play as the Hawkeyes beat their Quad 4 opponents by an average of 34.5 points per game. That will surely help when it comes to seeding this team. This is still a little bit of an odd resume and the head-scratching loss at Maryland on Wednesday makes it even more questionable.

USC

The Good: SOR: 35, WAB: 34, won at Wisconsin, 9-7 Quad 1/Quad 2, 9-4 r/n

The Bad: 1-5 Quad 1A, 1-4 Quad 1, Ken Pom: 50, Quad 3 loss to Northwestern, two wins over at-large teams

The Outlook: USC survived what would have been a bad loss at Penn State on Sunday. Yes, the Trojans were without Chad Baker-Mazara, but their resume would have taken a significant hit with the loss. However, they followed up that win with a loss at Ohio State. Four of their final six games will be played at home. A win over Illinois or Nebraska will go a long way to securing a bid.

Indiana

The Good: WAB: 38, SOR: 41, T-Rank: 24, beat Purdue, won at UCLA, no bad losses

The Bad: 2-7 Quad 1, 4-8 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Outlook: The Hoosiers took care of business at home against Oregon on Monday. Now comes the hard part. Indiana heads to Illinois on Sunday followed by a trip to Purdue. Losing both games would drop the Hoosiers to 4-10 against Quad 1 and Q2 opponents. That would be a problem. However, I said it last week and I’ll say it again, if Indiana is able to win the rest of its home games (Northwestern, Michigan State, Minnesota), I believe it will be playing in the NCAA Tournament.

UCLA

The Good: BPI: 30, WAB: 43, SOR: 43, beat Purdue

The Bad: only one win over an at-large team, KPI: 59, 1-5 Quad 1A

The Outlook: UCLA is one of my last four teams in the field and has plenty of work left to do. There’s a lot of empty calories on this resume and it’s time to start adding quality wins. It certainly won’t be easy. The Bruins play at Michigan on Saturday and Michigan State on Tuesday. There’s a pretty good chance the Bruins drop out of the field after this stretch before finishing the regular season with three of five at home.

Ohio State

The Good: SOR: 44, NET: 40, beat UCLA, USC, no bad losses

The Bad: 1-7 Quad 1, 5-8 Quad 1/Quad 2, KPI: 56, two wins over at-large teams

The Outlook: Ohio State notched its second victory over a current at-large team when it beat USC on Wednesday . The Buckeyes poor record against Quad 1 opponents is a significant issue, but they have a chance to improve it when they face Virginia in Nashville on Saturday night. Now is the time for them to prove whether or not they deserve an at-large bid.

Big 12

Invitations Sent: Arizona (1), Houston (2), Iowa State (2), Kansas (3)

Invitations Printed: Texas Tech (5), BYU (6)

On the List…for Now: UCF (8)

The Uninvited: TCU (First 4 Out), Oklahoma State (Next 4 Out), West Virginia, Baylor

UCF

The Good: Top 30 result-based metrics, 3-6 Quad 1, 12-6 Quad 1-Quad 3, beat Kansas, Texas Tech and won at Texas A&M

The Bad: Predictive metrics in the 50’s, NCSOS: 233

The Outlook: I’m more concerned about the Knights actual seed than I am about them receiving an at-large bid. UCF has a very manageable remaining schedule as well. Of its seven remaining games, only two are against teams currently in the field. And one of those teams, Oklahoma State, is my last team in. As long as the Knights don’t implode down the stretch, we will be talking more about seeding for this team than inclusion.

TCU

The Good: 4-5 Quad 1, beat Iowa State and Florida, Wisconsin on a neutral court

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Notre Dame, Quad 4 loss to New Orleans, 8-8 Quad 1-Quad 3, KPI: 63

The Outlook: The two bad losses on the Horned Frogs resume stick out like a sore thumb. Especially the Quad 4 loss to New Orleans. However, TCU improved its overall resume by knocking off Iowa State on Tuesday night. If the Horned Frogs can continue to pile up wins down the stretch, there’s definitely a path for them to receive an at-large bid. They head to Oklahoma State on Saturday. An important contest between two bubble teams.

Oklahoma State

The Good: SOR: 47, wins over Texas A&M, BYU and UCF, no bad losses

The Bad: 0-4 Quad 1A, 1-6 Quad 1, no key wins away from home, NCSOS: 289, poor predictive metrics

The Outlook: The Cowboys entered the week as my last team in the field, but dropped out after Miami beat North Carolina on Tuesday night. They are going to need to add more quality wins to their resume (ideally getting one on the road) before it’s all said and done in order to get back into the field.

West Virginia

The Good: beat Kansas, no bad losses, BPI: 44

The Bad: only one win over at-large teams, resume metrics in 60’s, NCSOS: 273

The Outlook: The Mountaineers have a nice win over Kansas, but that’s pretty much it. However, on the positive side, they also have won all the games they’re supposed to win. The key for them now is to pick off a couple teams they’re not supposed to beat. Playing in the Big 12 helps with these opportunities. West Virginia goes to UCF on Saturday. A win makes this team relevant.

Baylor

The Good: beat San Diego St (n), won at Oklahoma State, predictive metrics in 40’s, no bad losses

The Bad: 0-5 Quad 1A, 3-9 Quad 1, 5-11 vs Quad 1/Quad 2, WAB: 64

The Outlook: The Bears are running out of time and will need a strong showing down the stretch for any chance at receiving an at-large bid. Opportunities remain against Louisville, Arizona, at Houston and at UCF.

SEC

Invitations Sent: Florida (3), Vanderbilt (4), Alabama (4), Arkansas (5), Tennessee (6), Kentucky (6)

Invitations Printed: Texas A&M (9), Auburn (9)

On the List…for Now: Georgia (9), Missouri (10), Texas (Last 4 In)

The Uninvited: None

Georgia

The Good: SOR: 39, WAB: 42, Ken Pom: 40, 3-5 Quad 1, beat Arkansas, Auburn, won at Missouri, 8-6 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Bad: Quad 3 loss to Ole Miss, NCSOS: 308, 0-3 Quad 1A

The Outlook: The Bulldogs lost 86-66 at home to Florida on Wednesday night. The Gators have been playing as well as any team in the country, so it’s hard to fault Georgia too much in this one. Georgia heads on the road to Oklahoma on Saturday and then to Kentucky next Tuesday. The Bulldogs are one strong win away from pretty much locking up a bid. A win at Kentucky would do that.

Missouri

The Good: SOR: 37, WAB: 41, BPI: 43, beat Florida, Auburn and won at Kentucky and at Texas A&M, no bad losses

The Bad: KPI: 52, Ken Pom: 52, 6-7 Quad 1/Quad 2

The Outlook: The Tigers grabbed another major victory on Wednesday night as they went to College Station and beat Texas A&M. As far as overall quality wins go, Missouri has done enough to warrant an at-large bid. Play solid basketball down the stretch and there’s a good chance we will see this team in the NCAA Tournament.

Texas

The Good: WAB: 48, SOR: 48, Ken Pom: 33, 4-6 Quad 1, beat Vanderbilt, Georgia, NC State (n), won at Alabama

The Bad: KPI: 62, 5-8 Quad 1/Quad 2, 7-9 Quad 1-Quad 3, 3-6 r/n

The Outlook: The Longhorns have righted the ship over the last week or so, having won four of their last five games. I think Texas will receive an at-large bid if it’s able to go 3-4 down the stretch. It’s not going to be easy as the Longhorns still have to go to Missouri, Georgia, Texas A&M and Arkansas. If they are able to do so, there’s a strong likelihood that Texas is the team that finishes with the most losses to receive an at-large bid this year.

Other Candidates

Invitations Sent: Gonzaga (3)

Invitations Printed: Saint Louis (7), Utah State (8)

On the List…for Now: Saint Mary’s (10), Miami OH (auto), Santa Clara (auto)

The Uninvited: New Mexico (First 4 Out), San Diego State (Next 4 Out), VCU (Next 4 Out)

Utah State

The Good: KPI: 19, 3-1 Quad 1, 8-2 Quad 1/Quad 2, won at New Mexico and at VCU, 11-2 r/n

The Bad: no wins over at-large teams, Quad 3 loss to UNLV

The Outlook: Utah State continues to be in good shape to receive an at-large bid. The key for the Aggies the rest of the way will be to avoid multiple Quad 3 or Quad 4 losses.

Saint Mary’s

The Good: Top 40 result-based metrics, Top 35 predictive metrics, 4-4 Quad 1/Quad 2, 7-4 r/n, beat Virginia Tech (n)

The Bad: no wins over at-large teams, 1-3 Quad 1, 17 of 21 wins against Quad 3 or Quad 4

The Outlook: The Gaels were very happy to see Virginia Tech win at Clemson as their win over the Hokies is now a Quad 1 and stands out a bit more. Saint Mary’s still gets another opportunity against Gonzaga and Santa Clara at home. Winning one of these two games would be very helpful in its quest to lock up a bid.

New Mexico

The Good: Won at VCU, Beat Santa Clara, 5-5 Quad 1/Quad 2, KPI: 39, T-Rank: 44

The Bad: 1-4 Quad 1, maybe just one win over an at-large team, Quad 3 loss at New Mexico State, SOR: 54, BPI: 56

The Outlook: The Lobos endured a bad week going 0-2 against Utah State and Boise State at home. As a result, they fell out of the field. How can they get back in? Beat all the teams they are supposed to beat and get at least a split against San Diego State and at Utah State.

Miami (OH)

The Good: 22-0 against D-I teams, SOR: 24, WAB: 34, 1-0 Quad 2, 11-0 r/n

The Bad: NCSOS: 362, BPI: 88, zero Quad 1 games played, 21 of 22 D-I wins against Quad 3 or Quad 4

The Outlook: As the lone undefeated team remaining, the Red Hawks have one interesting resume. They would be the first team to ever receive an at-large bid without having even played a Quad 1 opponent. Their toughest game left is on Feb. 17 at UMass, a team they beat by just two at home. One loss and Miami (OH) will get an at-large bid; if it loses two more games, while I think the Red Hawks would still get in, things could get rather interesting.

Santa Clara

The Good: WAB: 39, SOR: 45, KPI: 36, Ken Pom: 38, 6-4 Quad 1/Quad 2, beat Saint Mary’s

The Bad: Quad 4 loss to Loyola, 1-3 Quad 1, BPI: 50

The Outlook: The Broncos are currently the auto bid out of the WCC. They certainly have a strong case to receive an at-large bid right now due to their excellent result-based metrics. The question is, how much does that loss to Loyola bring them down? Santa Clara gets to play Gonzaga on Saturday night. A win would go a long way to receiving an at-large bid.

San Diego State

The Good: WAB: 47, T-Rank: 37, beat New Mexico, 3-1 Quad 2

The Bad: no wins over at-large teams, 1-4 Quad 1, Quad 3 loss to Troy

The Outlook: The Aztecs are currently hovering on the wrong side of the bubble in large part because they haven’t beaten any teams in the field, plus the fact that they have a Quad 3 loss. Two critical opportunities remain on their schedule as they get Utah State at home and go to New Mexico the last week of February. Should San Diego State go 0-2 in these two games, it will not receive an at-large bid.

VCU

The Good: KPI: 38, BPI: 47, 4-2 Quad 2, no bad losses, beat Virginia Tech (n)

The Bad: 1-4 Quad 1, T-Rank: 60

The Outlook: VCU was another team that was pleased to see Virginia Tech back in the field as an at-large team. Assuming the Rams are able to continue their winning ways against teams they are supposed to beat, the only date that matters is Feb. 20. That’s when VCU plays at Saint Louis. In order to become a serious contender, I believe the Rams are going to need to beat the Billikens. If they are able to, their result-based metrics are in a place where they are good enough to warrant serious consideration for an at-large bid.

Meet your guide

Brad Wachtel

Brad Wachtel, Hoops HQ's lead Bracketologist, has two decades of experience projecting NCAA Tournament brackets. He has appeared on countless outlets, including the Field of 68, SiriusXM College Sports, the Sports Grid, the Asbury Park Press and the Newark Star-Ledger. He is a former men's basketball administrator at Rutgers and director of operations for The Hoop Group.

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