The most anticipated game of the week was on Tuesday evening when undefeated Nebraska went to Ann Arbor to face No. 5 Michigan. The Cornhuskers played the game without second-leading scorer Rienk Mast (14.6ppg) and third-leading scorer Braden Frager (12.2ppg), led for the majority of the game, but fell short by a score of 75-72 to snap their 24-game winning streak dating back to last season. Regardless of the final outcome, Nebraska once again proved it’s for real and should be taken seriously as a potential Final Four contender. The one part that really stings for Nebraska is that had it won, the Cornhuskers would have become a projected No. 1 seed in my latest bracket and would have knocked Michigan down to a No. 2. Michigan followed up this win with a win at rival Michigan State last night. The two big victories this week lands Michigan as the No. 3 overall one seed and within striking distance of Arizona and Duke.
Every year we see mid-major teams in the NCAA Tournament that nobody wants to face. That team this year? Saint Louis. The Billikens play in the Atlantic 10, which feels like kind of a step up from a mid-major conference, but a step below any power conference. They survived a game over George Washington on Tuesday thanks to Robbie Avila’s game winning three-pointer with three seconds to go in regulation. Saint Louis is now 21-1 overall and currently reside as a projected No. 7 seed. If the wins continue to pile up, I could see this team eventually getting to as high as a No. 5 seed. Best of luck to whoever draws this team in the NCAA Tournament!
Here are a few thoughts regarding today’s bracket:
- BYU fought back after trailing by 19 points against No. 1 Arizona on Monday night, but came up short in the end. No harm in losing to Arizona, but in order for the Cougars to have any chance at climbing up to be a potential No. 1 seed likely now requires them to win at Arizona on February 18th. Regardless, this is going to be a No. 3 or 4 seed that nobody will want to face in the NCAA Tournament.
- Indiana finally picked up a win over a quality opponent. And it was a big one. The Hoosiers improved to 1-6 against Q1 opponents (which doesn’t sound great) after beating Purdue on Tuesday, but what really makes them a player for the NCAA Tournament is the fact that they hold the No. 46 SOR and No. 47 WAB. Also, while Indiana doesn’t have a plethora of big wins, they also don’t have any Q3 or Q4 losses which is important and why the Hoosiers are back to being on the bubble.
- Michigan State trailed at Rutgers 67-60 with 2:48 remaining, but fought back to beat the Scarlet Knights in overtime 88-79. While from the surface it may not seem like a very important win for the Spartans, it actually was massive. I believe had the Spartans lost this Q3 game to Rutgers, it would have taken them out of contention to potentially get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. There are so many really good teams at the top of the seed list this year that having a blemish on its resume of that magnitude would have been costly. The Spartans would have rose to a No. 2 seed had they beat Michigan last night, but that did not happen. Instead, a 3 seed is where this team stands today.
- Tuesday was a good night for bubble teams. Virginia Tech (Georgia Tech), NC State (Syracuse) and UCF (Arizona State) all avoided the dreaded Q3 loss. Had any of these teams lost, there’s a good possibility it would have knocked them out of the field for the time being. Remember, a tournament resume isn’t just about who you have beaten, it’s also about avoiding those devastating type of losses, especially at home.
- One bubble team that did not have a good week was Missouri as the Tigers lost at Alabama by a score of 90-64. Missouri does have wins over Florida, Auburn and on the road at Kentucky, but it’s also just 5-7 against Q1-Q3 opponents and have resume-metrics that are slipping. I have a feeling this is going to be a team that moves in and out of the field a lot over the course of the next few weeks.
- The 2025 National Champion Florida Gators romped South Carolina on the road 95-48. After a somewhat shaky start to the season in terms of picking up quality wins, the Gators are 4-6 against Q1 opponents with wins over Georgia, Tennessee, Miami FL (n) and at Vanderbilt. And the predictive metrics LOVE them. They are top 10 in BPI, Ken Pom and Torvik and have an overall NET ranking of No. 12. Florida is on its way to getting a top four seed in the NCAA Tournament and will be a force to be reckoned with once again.
Last 4 Byes
St. Mary’s, Miami FL, USC, UCLA
Last 4 In
Virginia Tech, Ohio State, New Mexico, Indiana
First 4 Out
Missouri, Santa Clara, Texas, Seton Hall
Next 4 Out
George Mason, California, TCU, Stanford
Bracketology
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks
Merrimack Warriors
Indiana Hoosiers
New Mexico Lobos
UMBC Retrievers
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
Ohio State Buckeyes
Virginia Tech Hokies
Michigan Wolverines
Long Island Sharks
Texas A&M Aggies
NC State Wolfpack
North Carolina Tar Heels
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
BYU Cougars
Troy Trojans
Auburn Tigers
Miami Ohio Red Hawks
Purdue Boilermakers
North Dakota State Bison
Villanova Wildcats
USC Trojans
Iowa State Cyclones
Portland State Vikings
UConn Huskies
UT Martin Skyhawks
SMU Mustangs
Wisconsin Badgers
Kansas Jayhawks
Belmont Bruins
Florida Gators
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Tennessee Volunteers
San Diego State Aztecs
Michigan State Spartans
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Kentucky Wildcats
UCLA Bruins
Houston Cougars
Austin Peay Governors
Arizona Wildcats
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks
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Merrimack Warriors
Iowa Hawkeyes
Utah State Aggies
Alabama Crimson Tide
Yale Bulldogs
Virginia Cavaliers
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Clemson Tigers
Indiana Hoosiers
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New Mexico Lobos
Gonzaga Bulldogs
UT Arlington Mavericks
Louisville Cardinals
Saint Mary's Gaels
Illinois Fighting Illini
Navy Midshipmen
Duke Blue Devils
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
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UMBC Retrievers
Georgia Bulldogs
UCF Knights
Arkansas Razorbacks
Liberty Flames
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
St. John's Red Storm
Ohio State Buckeyes
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Virginia Tech Hokies
Vanderbilt Commodores
Winthrop Eagles
Saint Louis Billikens
Miami Hurricanes
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Wright State Raiders
Bids by Conference
| Conference | No. of Bids |
|---|---|
| Big Ten | 11 |
| SEC | 9 |
| ACC | 9 |
| Big 12 | 7 |
| Big East | 3 |
| WCC | 2 |
Meet your guide
