The 2026 high school recruiting cycle is nearing its final stretch, and some programs have clearly separated themselves from the rest. From Duke and Kansas continuing to surge to Kentucky and Louisville struggling to land top targets, this article breaks down the biggest winners and losers of the 2026 cycle:
Winners
Duke
Per usual, Duke finds itself atop the recruiting landscape with the nation’s top-ranked recruiting class. The Blue Devils have secured commitments from three five-star prospects, led by No. 2 overall player Cameron Williams, a 6-foot-11 forward out of Phoenix, Ariz. Duke also landed Bryson Howard, a springy 6-foot-5 wing from Frisco, Texas and the son of former NBA veteran Josh Howard, along with 6-foot-2 guard Deron Rippey Jr. out of Blairstown, N.J. in a key conference recruiting battle over NC State. Rounding out the group is 7-foot-1 center Maxime Meyer from IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida, giving the class elite talent across multiple positions.
Duke may be finished adding high school prospects, but five-star guard Jordan Smith Jr. out of Fairfax, Va. remains a name to monitor heading into the spring. With four commitments already secured, it’s possible both sides go in different directions, though Duke still remains in consideration, according to a source. Regardless of how the rest of the cycle plays out, Duke’s four-man class stands above the rest nationally and, right now, firmly sits at No. 1.
Kansas
Kansas continues to assert itself on the recruiting trail with an impressive four-man class led by dynamic 6-foot-1 guard Taylen Kinney out of Newport, Ky., and 6-foot-9 forward Davion Adkins from Dallas, Texas. Kinney is a dynamic point guard who impacts the game in multiple ways, while Adkins is a versatile two-way forward who brings size, length, and high-end upside to the frontcourt. Rounding out the class are Trent Perry, a 6-foot-5 do-it-all wing from Frisco, Texas, and Luke Barnett, a 6-foot-4 sharpshooter from Santa Ana, Calif. While not five-star prospects, Barnett is one of the best shooters in high school basketball, while Perry’s all-around game, rebounding, defending, and making plays, make both guys elite role players.
Looking ahead, Kansas also has its eyes on 2027 four-star Javon Bardwell, who has already pledged to the Jayhawks but could potentially reclassify to the program as soon as this coming spring. That move may hinge in part on the pursuit of top senior Tyran Stokes, a 6-foot-7 forward from Louisville, Ky., who is still weighing a decision between Kansas, Oregon, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. Landing Stokes would give this class another high-impact piece, potentially pushing it from very good to great.
Michigan State
Michigan State emerged as one of the clear winners of the recruiting cycle after Tom Izzo and his staff quietly assembled one of the program’s strongest classes in recent years. The Spartans set the tone in mid-summer with the early commitment of four-star point guard Carlos Medlock Jr., a 5-foot-11 floor general out of Wayne, Mich., before adding versatile 6-foot-7 forward Julius Avent from Oradell, N.J. These were two strong pieces that set an early foundation for Tom Izzo and staff. The class gained real traction in early November when Michigan State landed a pair of key pieces in four-star guard Jasiah Jervis out of White Plains, New York, and four-star 7-foot-1 center Ethan Taylor from Shawnee, Kan., addressing both backcourt depth and interior size. Those two additions elevated the Spartans from an average-to-good recruiting cycle into one that now borders on great.
The result is a well-rounded, high-upside four-man group that checks multiple boxes for Izzo’s program going forward. With guard play, frontcourt presence and long-term development all accounted for in this class, Michigan State has positioned themselves as one of the clear winners of the recruiting cycle, landing their strongest high school haul in the last five seasons.
Missouri
I really love what Missouri and Dennis Gates have done so far with their 2026 class. The Tigers got off to a fast start this summer by landing five-star guard Jason Crowe Jr., a 6-foot-3 scorer out of Lynwood, Calif. and one of the most explosive offensive players in high school basketball. They followed that up with another major win in five-star Toni Bryant, a 6-foot-10 forward from Orlando, Fla., giving Mizzou a rare pair of elite, high-upside prospects.
For most cycles, that alone would represent a massive recruiting win for a Missouri program that doesn’t typically pull in top national talent. But Gates and his staff weren’t finished, adding four-star wing Aidan Chronister, a 6-foot-7 wing prospect out of Fayetteville, Ark. The addition of Chronister gives Missouri a strong three-man class featuring two five-stars and an elite shot-maker, all of whom project as immediate-impact pieces in Columbia next season.
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State has made a major statement on the recruiting trail under Steve Lutz and his staff, assembling one of the nation’s top high school recruiting classes. The Cowboys opened the class with four-star wing Jalen Montanati, a 6-foot-7 sharpshooter from Owasso, Okla., widely regarded as one of the best shot makers in the country. They followed that up with 6-foot-8 forward Latrell Allmond out of Petersburg, Va., a versatile, high-energy frontcourt player who brings size, toughness and athleticism. If both players stay in Stillwater, they figure to make an immediate impact and contribute to the program for multiple seasons. Rounding out the class is four-star guard Parker Robinson, a 6-foot-4 scorer from Olney, Maryland, giving Oklahoma State depth and shooting in the backcourt.
With this balanced, high-upside group, the Cowboys boast one of the best overall high school recruiting classes in the country this cycle. Lutz and his staff have delivered a class that not only strengthens the current roster but could serve as a launching point for the program’s return to national relevance after a few seasons of living in the cellar of the Big 12. Really impressive work from Oklahoma State that should impact the program for years to come.
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Losers
Kentucky
It’s hard to find a bigger loser this recruiting cycle than Mark Pope and the Kentucky Wildcats. The Cats have struggled both on the court and on the recruiting trail, failing so far to land a high school recruit and still searching for their first commit of the cycle. Tyran Stokes, the top overall player in this year’s class, had been trending toward Kentucky for months before his recruitment opened back up. Five-star forward Christian Collins, a 6-foot-8 prospect from Bellflower, Calif., also seemed destined for the Wildcats before his recruitment reportedly crept back open.
Those aren’t the only high-profile misses. Prospects like Deron Rippey Jr., Arafan Diane, Baba Oladotun, Anthony Thompson, Taylen Kinney, and Bryson Howard all included Kentucky in their final lists before ultimately committing elsewhere. Five-star guard Jordan Smith Jr., a 6-foot-2 prospect out of Fairfax, Va., remains a major wildcard, while 6-foot-5 guard Caleb Holt from New Market, Ala., also lists Kentucky among his options alongside Alabama, Houston, and Arizona. While there’s still a chance Pope can land one of these top targets, significant questions remain about whether Kentucky can turn things around both on the court and on the recruiting trail.
Louisville
After assembling one of the nation’s best classes in 2025, Louisville and Pat Kelsey have struggled to carry over the momentum from last year’s top-tier recruiting class. The Cards have come up short so far this cycle, sitting in mid-January without a single commitment and missing on several key targets. High-profile misses include five-star guard Taylen Kinney, who committed to Kansas; four-star Colben Landrew, who chose UConn; four-star big man Josh Irving, who went to Texas A&M; and five-star forward Jaxon Richardson, who recently removed Louisville from his list altogether.
Perhaps the most notable miss is hometown five-star Tyran Stokes, who once had Louisville in strong consideration before cutting the Cards months ago. That decision stings even more as Stokes has yet to commit elsewhere and Louisville remains without a single recruit this cycle. While Kelsey has brought renewed energy and optimism to the program on the court, that same momentum has yet to translate to the recruiting trail in 2026, leaving the Cards among the cycle’s biggest disappointments.
Syracuse
Red Autry and Syracuse have been a major disappointment on the recruiting trail this cycle. For a program that has historically landed some of the nation’s top prospects, 2026 has been a rough stretch. Syracuse has already missed on several key targets and still has no commitments as of mid-January. Notable misses include five-star guard Deron Rippey Jr., who committed to Duke, and four-star big man Asher Elson, one of Syracuse’s most realistic targets, who chose Xavier. Four-star guards Alex Constanza and Vaughn Karvala were both courted early in the process but ended up elsewhere, letting four of Syracuse’s top priorities slip through their fingers.
The only real upside left is five-star guard Jordan Smith Jr., one of the top prospects still available in the 2026 class. While he has a connection to the Syracuse staff and has visited campus a few times, he is widely considered a longshot to ultimately land in Syracuse, with programs like Arkansas, Georgetown, Kentucky and Duke still in the mix. For a program that has consistently excelled on the recruiting trail, this cycle has been a stark reality check for Red Autry and the Orange.
Florida
Coming off a national championship, the last thing anyone expected was for Florida and Todd Golden to struggle on the recruiting trail in 2026, but that is exactly where they stand in mid-January. The Gators have not cast a particularly wide net, and so far they have missed on the primary targets they pursued. Cole Cloer, a 6-foot-7 wing out of Hillsborough, N.C., was one of Florida’s top targets but committed to NC State and arrived on campus just a few weeks ago. Five-star Caleb Gaskins, a 6-foot-8 forward out of Miami, Fla., was heavily courted by the Gators but chose Miami over Florida. Four-star big man Maxime Meyer, a 7-foot-1 prospect out of IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla., also passed on Florida in favor of Duke.
That leaves the Gators with just one commitment in the 2026 class: unranked 7-foot center Jones Lay out of Hickory, N.C., and Moravian Prep. While that may not ultimately be a huge issue in today’s portal-driven landscape, it is notable that after all the success Florida has enjoyed in the last calendar year, they have yet to land any of the nation’s top high school prospects. As we head towards the dog days of the college basketball season, this gap on the recruiting trail remains notable, though it may not be a point of concern for the Gators at this very moment.
Virginia
When Ryan Odom took over at Virginia last spring, he had a lot of work to do to put together a roster that could compete in the ACC. As the team sits at 14-2 overall and 3-1 in conference play, it’s safe to say he has done a solid job on the court. On the recruiting trail, however, there are certainly some early concerns. Virginia has yet to land a high school commitment in the 2026 class, and the few top prospects they pursued have all slipped away.
Four-star big man Arafan Diane, one of the top bigs in the class, was strongly considering Virginia and even took an official visit, but ultimately committed to Houston. Four-star forward Latrell Allmond from Petersburg, Va., also gave the Hoos serious consideration but chose Oklahoma State. Virginia was also in contention for four-star wing Luca Foster, a 6-foot-5 prospect out of Wayne, Penn., who visited campus in early October but ultimately committed to Gonzaga. With these early misses, Odom will likely need to rely on the portal, as he did in assembling a competitive roster this season. While he has done an impressive job rebuilding on the court, Virginia’s struggles to land top high school prospects highlight a potential challenge in maintaining sustained success in the ACC.
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