We are in a new year, and for college basketball, a new season. There have been a small smattering of conference games played to date, but most of the first two months were filled with nonconference contests (including a huge number between ranked teams). Those games gave us a good sense of what the landscape looks like.
Still, there’s nothing like full-fledged conference play to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Teams have to play in true road environments against neighborhood rivals who are unintimidated and unafraid. That means we are on a mad dash to March Madness.
Here’s how I see the various tiers playing in the five power leagues as the new season gets underway.
ACC
Favorite
Duke: The Blue Devils have one of the leading candidates for National Player of the Year in Cameron Boozer. Duke has one loss and, per KenPom, are predicted to win out in the ACC. Their only projected loss is to Michigan in Washington, D.C.) A perfect ACC mark would be tough to accomplish with road games still to come at Louisville, Cal, North Carolina and maybe NC State. Still, Boozer and the Blue Devils are the favorites.
Contenders
North Carolina: The Tar Heels have one of the top three players in the country in freshman Caleb Wilson. Henry Veesaar has been one of the top transfers and this team is defending well. UNC doesn’t have the same predictive metrics in its favor with games still to come at SMU, Virginia, Cal, Duke, Miami and NC State.
Louisville: If the Cardinals can stay healthy, they’ve got a chance, led by Mikel Brown Jr. Beating Cal in Berkeley without him was another strong statement.
Virginia: Ryan Odom has done a marvelous job in year one and Thijs De Ridder and Malik Thomas are a 1-2 punch that will keep them in all games. Don’t be dismayed by the triple-overtime loss at rival Virginia Tech.
Pretenders
SMU: The Mustangs have two losses — both to SEC schools — but are still an intriguing team going forward led by Boopie Miller.
Clemson: Never, ever underestimate a Brad Brownell squad. He always has the Tigers in the mix and a road win at Syracuse was a positive step.
NC State: The Wolfpack may have finally found their groove after a convincing win over Wake Forest.
Virginia Tech: The Hokies’ triple-overtime win over Virginia was a positive sign.
Big 12
Favorites
Arizona: The No. 1 team in the country has answered every challenge in a rugged nonconference slate. The Wildcats have won at home, on neutral courts and in true road games. Koa Peat and Jaden Bradley give the Wildcats one of the best 1-2 punches in the country.
Iowa State: The Cyclones have one of the best wins of the season — at Purdue handily. Iowa State’s trio of Joshua Jefferson, Tamin Lipsey and Milan Momciliovic gives them an extremely difficult matchup on both ends of the court. The schedule takes them to Arizona and BYU while Arizona doesn’t have to go to Iowa State.
BYU: The Cougars have possibly the best player in the country in AJ Dybantsa. Having Richie Saunders and guard Rob Wright give them plenty of options, too. The Cougars lack some depth inside and winning true road games is still an unknown.
Houston: The Cougars have been the team to beat in the Big 12 the past two seasons. They have more company now, but the starting five of Milos Uzan, Kingston Flemings, Emanuel Sharp, Chris Cenac and Joseph Tugler gives Kelvin Sampson a chance in every game.
Kansas: Darryn Peterson is still an unknown due to a hamstring injury, but Melvin Council has answered the call to be a big-time scorer. Kansas has the best homecourt in the league and can never be counted out as a Big 12 title contender.
Texas Tech: Christian Anderson is a top-five point guard in the country and still doesn’t get the love he deserves (see 27 points in a win over Duke at MSG). JT Toppin is a beast to defend. But the Red Raiders will still need to ensure they can win consistently on the road to be a true contender.
Contenders
Baylor: The Bears added James Nnaji to help inside, but this team will go as far as Cameron Carr and Tounde Yessoufou take them on the perimeter.
TCU: The wins over Florida and Wisconsin give the Horned Frogs hope that they can be a factor in the Big 12.
Pretenders
UCF: A gaudy nonconference record means they have a chance to be an NCAA bid contender.
Oklahoma State: See above, for same reason.
Arizona State: Love the backcourt of Moe Odum and Anthony “Piggy” Johnson, but they have stumbled a bit since a Maui Invitational final appearance.
The HHQ Fast Break: Debating the Hottest Topics in Hoops
Welcome to the Fast Break, where Hoops HQ breaks down the top teams, players and trends
Big East
Favorite
UConn: The Huskies are back to being a national title contender now that they are healthy. UConn has the answer at every position and has its swagger back. The Huskies are favored to win every remaining game and running the table in the Big East wouldn’t be a reach.
Contender
St. John’s: The Red Storm were the preseason favorites but haven’t met the moment just yet. St. John’s still hasn’t settled on its point guard position and aren’t looking the part of a title team anymore.
Villanova: The Wildcats got a win at Seton Hall to send notice that they’ve got the offensive talent and can defend well enough to be in every remaining game.
Pretenders
Seton Hall: The Pirates are gritty and will be a tough out in every game, but need to prove they are ready for prime time.
Butler: The Bulldogs got humbled at UConn and then lost at Creighton, and the remaining chances are dwindling.
Creighton: The Bluejays had a disappointing nonconference, but a 3-0 Big East start has reset the narrative on the season.
Big Ten
Favorites
Michigan: The Wolverines are crushing all opponents. They’ve got a player of the year candidate in Yaxel Lendeborg and have essentially eight starters with Morez Johnson, Elliot Cadeau, Aday Mara, Roddy Gayle, Nimari Burnett, Trey McKinney and LJ Cason joining Lendeborg in a rotation with no weaknesses. Michigan could run the table, but that sounds incredibly difficult with road games at Purdue, Michigan State and Illinois.
Purdue: The Boilermakers still have reigning Big Ten Player of the Year Braden Smith and an all-Big Ten forward in Trey Kaufman-Renn. Oscar Cluff has been the rebounding answer. To dismiss Purdue in the Big Ten title chase and hand it to Michigan would be a mistake.
Contenders
Michigan State: Jeremy Fears Jr. has been one of the best playmakers in the country. Coen Carr has stepped up to be more than a highlight dunker, and the big men by committee approach has been more than enough. MSU has answered every high-profile challenge except one — against Duke.
Nebraska: The Huskers entered the new year undefeated behind All-Big Ten player Rienk Mast. Nebraska’s homecourt is one of the toughest in the nation and the Huskers got a road win at Illinois.
Illinois: The Illini wins over Tennessee in Nashville and over Mizzou in St. Louis were needed to reestablish them as a legit title contender. Illinois can score with any team but will need to be able to defend in the post well enough to handle the likes of Michigan in a title chase.
Pretenders
UCLA: Skyy Clark, Donovan Dent and Tyler Bilodeau give the Bruins a chance in any game.
USC: Chad Baker-Mazara is an All-Big Ten first team player. If Alijah Arenas can add something significant then they can be a factor.
Iowa: Bennett Stirtz will need offensive help for the Hawkeyes to finish in the top four.
Indiana: The 1-2 combo of Lamar Wilkerson and Tucker DeVries gives the Hoosiers a shot.
Ohio State: Bruce Thornton can get to the rack anytime he wants and that means late-game situations could lean the Buckeyes’ way.
Wisconsin: The Badgers have yet to step up in high-profile games and prove they are a real contender.
Washington: The Huskies have the talent to make a run, but they have to knock off some of the top four teams in the Big Ten to have a chance.
Oregon: The Ducks failed in their high-profile Quad 1 games. But Nate Bittle, Jackson Shelstad and Kwame Evans do give them hope.
SEC
Favorites
Vanderbilt: The Commodores were not a preseason favorite and that was a major mistake. Vandy entered the new year undefeated led by transfer Duke Miles. Mark Byington has to be in the coach of the year chase.
Alabama: The Tide, when healthy, are a threat to get to the Final Four, not just win the SEC. Labaron Philon is a first-team All-American candidate. The Tide need to prove it can board with the best teams in the league.
Arkansas: The Hogs have two elite freshmen in Darius Acuff and Maleek Thomas, plus a high-level leader in Trevon Brazile. Arkansas should be one of the most improved teams going forward.
Tennessee: Ja’Kobi Gillespie is one of the top point guards in the country and Nate Ament one of the top freshmen. Rick Barnes’ squads are always improving as the season progresses.
Kentucky: The Wildcats added one of the most important transfers two weeks ago when Jayden Quaintance got healthy. He’s a difference maker. Jaland Lowe’s shoulder health could determine if Kentucky can be a real SEC favorite.
Contenders
Florida: The Gators haven’t met the moment yet as the reigning champs. The guard play has been erratic. Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh are still a pair of the top forwards in the SEC.
Auburn: The Tigers’ defense hasn’t been as efficient as it has in the past. Offense is not the problem.
Pretenders
Georgia: The Bulldogs have flown way under the radar and have an All-SEC type player in Jeremiah Wilkinson and a major contributor in Blue Cain.
LSU: The Tigers have just one loss but didn’t play a strong slate, so this team is a complete unknown in the SEC race.
Texas A&M: The Aggies haven’t played well in peer-to-peer games but shouldn’t be dismissed.
Texas: Dailyn Swain, Jordan Pope and Tramon Mark give this team a chance in any game.
Oklahoma: The Sooners don’t have a bad loss and did beat rival Oklahoma State. But there is still lots of work to do to earn a bid.
Ole Miss: The four-game losing streak means they have to be a top-half SEC team to get a bid.
Missouri: Mark Mitchell is elite, but the Tigers have whiffed lately in high-profile games.
Meet your guide
