The first week of the NCAA Tournament had everything we could want. For me, the most memorable moment was being on the court with the Nebraska players and coaches following their dramatic win over Vanderbilt. To see that team make history like that in front of its rabid fan base was truly what March Madness is all about.
Hopefully we’ll have even more memories being made over the next two rounds. We have a true powerhouse Sweet Sixteen (you know that’s the case when Texas is the closest thing we have to a Cinderella). From star-studded individual matchups to duels involving Hall of Fame coaches to the top teams in the sport (sorry, Florida), the next set of games is going to be riveting. Here is what I’m looking forward to for the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight.
• The year of the freshmen will be on full display in the Sweet Sixteen. The consensus National Player of the Year, Duke’s Cameron Boozer, has a chance, like Cooper Flagg a season ago, to deliver the Blue Devils to the Final Four. This is his chance to show he can rise to the moment as the player of the year.
Illinois’ David Mirkovich and Keaton Wagler will be up against Houston’s Kingston Flemings and Chris Cenac Jr., in a battle of four of the best freshmen at their respective positions.
Arizona’s Brayden Burries and Koa Peat and Arkansas’ Darius Acuff Jr. and Maleek Thomas could be the dominant performers in the San Jose region.
• In the preseason, no one could have predicted an Iowa-Nebraska matchup in the NCAA Tournament, let alone a Sweet Sixteen matchup. This should be a late-possession game, just like the two previous meetings. I was there for a court storm in Iowa City, and then the Huskers’ win on the final day of the regular season earned Nebraska the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Both teams can play stingy, mixing defenses, but also have the ability to knock down threes. And don’t discount Big Red and the Hawkeye faithful taking over Houston.
• Houston is walking distance from the Toyota Center (2.1 miles). This is less than a 5K! But Illinois has one of the most passionate fan bases and will show up en masse. So I don’t foresee the Cougars having the same kind of advantage that Nebraska had in Oklahoma City. The three Big Ten fan bases will show in Houston.
• The Zuby Ejiofor-Boozer matchup may be one of the best of the Sweet Sixteen. Expect this to be a physical game inside. St. John’s can go through scoring droughts, which would lead into Duke’s second gear. The Blue Devils are ready — they scheduled the Michigan game in Washington DC for this reason — to play in the Sweet Sixteen/Elite Eight on the same floor.
• If Duke’s Jon Scheyer can get out of this weekend and into a second straight Final Four it may be one of the best succession situations we’ve seen in modern times.
• I’ve covered Rick Pitino for decades and I’ve never seen him so relaxed and at ease. He’s absolutely loving coaching this St. John’s team. He has elevated the program, created a frenzied atmosphere at Madison Square Garden and has New York back to being a college town. I don’t see him slowing down one bit. If he can get the Red Storm to a Final Four, it would be the fourth different school in his career (Providence, Kentucky and Louisville). That’s simply unprecedented. If he hadn’t left for the NBA twice, he would be the overall wins leader. Any top five of all-time coaches in the modern era has to include him.
• Michigan State is familiar with UConn’s Tarris Reed Jr. after he played at Michigan. He will be a handful for Carson Cooper and Jaxon Kohler after grabbing 27 rebounds in the opening round win over Furman. I was at the Michigan State-UConn exhibition in October and both teams have come light years from then. But the one constant for the Spartans is unforced turnovers. The Spartans have had issues with them this season. If they can limit turnovers, they should win this game.
• Tommy Lloyd has had tremendous success at Arizona but this is his best chance to get to a Final Four and win a title. The Wildcats have the right mix of talent, experience and offensive productivity to beat Arkansas and Purdue or Texas.
• Sean Miller’s ability to build winners has never been in question. He just needed time. And the Longhorns had the right mix, but needed more time to mesh. I was with this team in Maui and you could see the pieces were in place to make a run in the SEC. Inconsistencies were an issue but the top six on this squad — Dailyn Swain, Matas Vokietaitis, Tramon Mark, Jordan Pope, Cam Heide and Chandall Weaver — are more than enough to pull off another upset of Purdue. They all can contribute offensively and cause some issues defensively.
But the drive of the Purdue big three could be the decisive factor. Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn seem to be on a mission to erase their turnover and lack of defensive pop during the season. They are on a heater in the past two weeks with the Big Ten Tournament title and the two NCAA wins, thus far. The injury to CJ Cox is an issue, but they can survive it in this round. I still believe the play of Oscar Cluff inside could be the difference maker in the Sweet Sixteen.
• The Wolverines seemed a bit bored in the Big Ten Tournament. They got to the title game, but weren’t too upset with the loss. They were locked into winning in March and April. They have now had time to play without LJ Cason on the perimeter. They are starting to look like the team that steamrolled teams in Las Vegas in November. Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara and Morez Johnson are still the best trio of bigs left in the field. Elliot Cadeau has made big-time shots and Trey McKenney is stepping up at the right time.
• I’m not sure any coach has been able to deal with chaos and crisis and still win better than Nate Oats. He continues to plow ahead when things go sideways (see Brandon Miller, Charles Bediako and Aden Holloway). The most impressive part of the Tide has been their defense. Alabama gave up 70 to Hofstra and only 65 to Texas Tech.
• Ja’Kobi Gillespie wasn’t celebrated enough during the portal season. The former Maryland guard has delivered for the Vols. He led the Terps to the Sweet Sixteen a year ago and now he’s dropped 21 and 29 in the Vols’ first two games. He’s going to have to do something similar if Tennessee is to get past Iowa State. The status of Joshua Jefferson is unknown, but he is seemingly not likely to play. Still, the Cyclones suffocated Kentucky, limiting the ‘Cats to just 63 points. Expect big games again from Tamin Lipsey and Milan Momciliovic. This game is going to be physical!
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• Gonzaga was never going to be the same without Braden Huff and to expect the Zags to reach the Final Four without him was unfair and unrealistic. Graham Ike played well off him and the combo of the two of them was extremely difficult for teams to deal with earlier in the season.
• Tyler Tanner could be the Preseason SEC Player of the Year if he returns. And he should. The Vanderbilt point guard would get overlooked in this loaded draft. He’s such joy to watch. But the baby-face look doesn’t do his game justice. He is lethal from the perimeter and can get to the rim and flush. Mark Byington is building a perennial SEC title contender.
• Shout out to Texas A&M’s Bucky McMillan, who was extremely accommodating to me and other members of the media. He put together a loaded roster in weeks last spring when he was the last Power Five head coach to get hired. Bucky Ball has a bright future in College Station.
• I still think if Tyler Bilodeau had been healthy, UCLA could have reached the Final Four. Now, Mick Cronin has another major rebuild on his hands. But the Bruins clearly got better as the season progressed in the back end of the Big Ten.
• The timing was right for Randy Bennett to leave Saint Mary’s for Arizona State. He had flirted with leaving the Gaels many times but with Gonzaga leaving the WCC this was probably the best and maybe final time to bolt. This is akin to when Richard Pitino told me that he would have stayed at New Mexico, but once the Mountain West was essentially breaking apart and the Lobos were being left behind, Pitino saw that as an opportunity to head to the Big East and Xavier. The WCC won’t be the same without Gonzaga. Saint Mary’s is losing two guaranteed Quad 1 games and Bennett had told me in Oklahoma City that he had to find two more next season. Now that’s Mikey McConnell’s problem. But he’s the right hire for the Gaels since he understands the program and has plenty of international connections, too. If Bennett brings his Australian pipeline to ASU, that will give him a necessary niche in the Big 12. The stingy defense, ball-control offense and high-percentage three-point shooting will give him a different look within the Big 12.
• Bryan Hodgson has the right persona to lead Providence. The Friar faithful love a fiery coach who isn’t going to back down to opposing coaches, fans, etc. Hodgson has proven to be a winner at each of his stops, most recently at South Florida. And the Friars are all in on making sure the roster is fully stocked with players who get paid a competitive rate at the top of the Big East. Of course, now he has to evaluate correctly and make sure it fits. But I fully expect the fans to embrace him here at the outset.
• There was nothing wrong with Adrian Autry as the first choice to replace Jim Boeheim. The roster construction and injuries did him in this season. Gerry McNamara proved himself at Siena, leading the Saints to the MAAC title and giving Duke a legit scare down to the final minutes. What are the chances he succeeds where Autry did not at Syracuse? Still to be determined. But McNamara has the advantage over Autry that he now has run a program and won prior to taking over at Syracuse. The Orange job has a chance to be a regular top-five ACC job if the administration is aligned financially.
• Covered Scott Cross in Oklahoma City for TNT and I came away extremely impressed with his practice and program. He was a winner at Troy with a collection of players who were all-in on his style of play. The structure and discipline of the program should do well at Georgia Tech. This hire should give the Yellow Jackets the needed consistency they have been seeking.
• Casey Alexander pushes pace, has shooters, and has learned from one of the best in Rick Byrd. If he can translate Belmont’s offensive efficiency to Kansas State, the turnaround in Manhattan will be quite quick. Meanwhile, the hire of Evan Bradds, who had been an assistant at Duke, keeps the Belmont job in the family. Bradds, who played for the Bruins, has a chance to continue the Byrd legacy.
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